Haha OPEC

Here are the figures straight from the official OPEC website:

At end-2001 world proven crude oil reserves stood at 1,074,850 million barrels.

Total world oil demand in 2000 is put at 76 million barrels per day.

As world economic growth continues, crude oil demand will also rise to 90.6m b/d in 2010 and 103.2m b/d by 2020, according to the OWEM reference case figures.

OPEC's oil reserves are sufficient to last another 80 years at the current rate of production, while non-OPEC oil producers' reserves might last less than 20 years.

76 million * 365 days = 27.74 billion barrels per year

1,074,850 million barrels / 27.74 billion barrels = 38.74 years from 2001.

I'm inclined to think that they haven't done their math.

Based on their figures, (and you'd hope they might have a clue seeing as they do have 75% of the total world reserves), we are looking at a global energy crisis in the next 10 years becuase they have completely ignored the hubbert peak oil effect combined with rising consumption.

There might be time to do something about this if the governments actually got their act together but some people say that its already to late.

The implications of oil shortages are mind boggling with respect to food production and population decline.

No fuel cells are not a solution

Ahh yes, the world will soon run out of oil. Perhaps your right and the poor ignorant clods running OPEC have completely miscalculated their resources, but thanks to you they are now aware of their mistake. You have emailed your findings to OPEC havn't you?

Variable

Its undeniable that we're going to run out of oil one day... When that time comes or gets sufficiently near, we'll adapt and come up with an alternative. For power, we can always go to nuclear power and still keep up with the many coal plants we have today. All kinds of new developments are coming through for individual vehicles. We'll adapt just like we do when we run out of other nonrenewable resources.

Fortunately, people are aware of this problem

i think that in their calculations they included the introduction of more and more alternative fuel sources. perhaps that's how they got the 80 years.

Originally posted by Variable
Ahh yes, the world will soon run out of oil. Perhaps your right and the poor ignorant clods running OPEC have completely miscalculated their resources, but thanks to you they are now aware of their mistake. You have emailed your findings to OPEC havn't you?

Variable

Heh, I did actually email them just to ask them about their figures

People seem to be overall unusually optimistic about the whole oil thing simply because its not a problem atm. I guess this whole discussion might be a bit more relevant in say 6 years time.

In the mean time I intend to watch the global oil production statistics and as soon as maximum sustainable output declines and prices go up while consumption is still trying to go up I'll maybe bring this up again

I recognize that its a problem, and I agree that its a very serious problem. I just think that with the great minds we have working on solutions, we'll come up with something.

Originally posted by TenPin

76 million * 365 days = 27.74 billion barrels per year

1,074,850 million barrels / 27.74 billion barrels = 38.74 years from 2001.

I'm inclined to think that they haven't done their math.

If they keep going at their current output levels, it will last more than 80 years.

They have 845,421 million barrels in Opec reserves.
If they export 28 million barrels a day it will last 82.72 years.

845,421 / 28 = 30193.61
30193.61 / 365 = 82.72 years.

28 million is actually more than they usually export per year.

[Edited on 25-4-2004 by AceOfBase]

Originally posted by AceOfBase

Originally posted by TenPin

76 million * 365 days = 27.74 billion barrels per year

1,074,850 million barrels / 27.74 billion barrels = 38.74 years from 2001.

I'm inclined to think that they haven't done their math.

If they keep going at their current output levels, it will last more than 80 years.

They have 845,421 million barrels in Opec reserves.
If they export 28 million barrels a day it will last 82.72 years.

845,421 / 28 = 30193.61
30193.61 / 365 = 82.72 years.

28 million is actually more than they usually export per year.

[Edited on 25-4-2004 by AceOfBase]

Ahhhhh good point.

So they weren't being totally inaccurate, just very misleading as to the global long term position considering they do mention on the same page that production will rise and OPEC's market share will increase due to the rest of the world declining.