Looking around the world we see many problems and some serious political and religious conflicts.

I don't want to sound alarmist or seem as if i am overreacting but for the last three years i have been worried about the middle east situation. Namely the Israel vs Palestine situation.

Let me preface this thread by saying i have no interest in either side, i don't care who kills whom, who wins or looses, i have absolutely no interest in who wins this war. What i have interest in is the outcome of such a conflict.

My serious worry has always been the worst possible outcome of this conflict and it is as follows.

Israel attacks Palestine from the air, leading to a ground assault and occupation. Guerrilla warfare follows.

Iran supports from behind the scenes whilst making a big noise on the political stage.

Iran finally admits to direct support and offers help to the Palestinian state, supplying weapons and troops makes them a target.

The USA warns Iran to back off, 3 months of political rhetoric follow.

Russia and/or China enter this debate on the side of Iran. They offer financial and logistical support to Iran and by proxy Palestine.

Political talks fail, Russia cuts off gas supplies to certain European countries including allies of the USA, the UK being a key player here. China further causes trouble by offering support to Iran with their latest weapons.

WW3 follows, Europe is caught in the middle and segments, each country following a different agenda. Split mostly in half Europe destroys itself.

This is my worst possible idea of what could happen. I believe Europe will hold this together because they want to remain a union and will pressure the UN to hold it together. I have to admit that for once i am glad the EU exists to hold it together. I worry however that it won't hold together.

[edit on 31-12-2008 by ImaginaryReality1984]

Good plausible thoughts in your scenario for the most part. Russia just cut off gas to the Ukraine as a pretest to their trying to join the EU.

But I'd say it's reductive to assume China would back Iran in any way. They need the US relationship far more than unity with Iran. China will sit on the sideline in anything involving the Middle East and watch the active players further debilitate each other for now.

Russia has a love-hate relationship with Iran. They love being paid top dollar for their junk military equipment but don't want to be on the wrong end of the Middle East struggle. The Saudis want Iran knocked out, as do the US and almost everyone else. Russia barks loud, but with their military equipment and infrastructure in tatters, cannot even consider a military confrontation with the US.

Iran has overconfidently believed they will spearhead an Islamic Revolution and overthrow incumbent corrupt Sunni regimes backed by the West. But so far only Syria, Lebanon, and rogue states like Venezuela have come on board.

Iran may win some PR points in skirmishes like Gaza, but are not anywhere in position to engage one-o-one in a knock down drag out war.

What's happening now is realignment rather than a prelude for war.

I dont know about WW3 but something big should have happened by now either from nature or human hands.


On the nature side there hasnt been a plague or a big disease breakout in a while

On the human side we havent had a big war in a while anywhere on the globe for a while, if you look at history for about the past 1000 years something should have happened.

It is plausible, but by then, The United States would have already issued a draft and bombed out Iran....

Largely, the EU should hold together because of strong economic ties. It would be a difficult war, basically, Russia vs. NATO.

And this time there would be support behind this war.

I have some knowledge of Russia's military potential over and above what's generally reported. Believe me, about the last thing Russia wants right now is a war, conventional, nuclear, or otherwise.

Their weaponry is atrociously out of date and a lot rapidly becoming inoperable. They have an aging army and little replenoshment of young trained soldiers. Their show of force earlier this year took all their resources just to drag their sorry asses to the situation and threaten a tiny republic. Putin is constantly upping his rhetoric and sabre-rattling with the West, because all there is to back him up is fightin' words.

Russia uses it's oil and gas dependencies to get political leverage. Their biggest conflict potentially is with China in the Eastern hemisphere. China is quietly building up a vast navy and has no problem with a conventional military if it's ever required. If China ever felt compelled to make a grab at Russian resources on the excuse of a land dispute war it would be no contest.


Mike F

I dont believe WW# is going to be NATO against russia. what i believe is that the USA will turn the middle east into a glass carpark (in other words they will nuke the middle east) but this will make the world go agaisnt america and will soon declare war on the united states of america or if they dont nuke the middle east we can avenge them of what they did to eastern europe, the Middle East and many countruies on south east asia in fact what if communism was probaly better for them. but anyway soon (probaly 2012) every country in the world (including russia and north lkorea and even Iraq) will join forces and eradicate the the fascsist dictatorship of the United States of America. and we will show no mercy but well let Obama go. (yay 4 Obama)



P.s my little brother loves men

IR1984 I do agree with you on most points, but must say that Obama changes everything. He is a loose cog in the flow of Global functions. No one really knows where his loyalty lies and until that is shown the Earth is in caos. I don't believe a word from his mouth, but I think he will tend to side with Muslims if there is a global war that they are a part of, ( and I can't imagine one without them!).

I felt much safer with Mr. Bush in that chair.

I don't see any reason to expect WW3 in the near future. It's an embarrassing fact of the human race that there hasn't been a day in the past 3000 years of peace. Somebody, somewhere is usually at war with someone else. Even America has been in perpetual conflict with one Nation or other since the Declaration of Independence. We're like the bubbling pan on the stove that's just on the edge of boiling over.

A section of ATS members always opt for the 'worst case scenario'. The comfort zone involves being perpetually at the edge of Mankind's destruction or eternal servitude. A quick ATS search reveals ten pages of 'worst case scenario' threads. Fears of 'WCS' often act as the impetus that leads us into conflict in the first place

[edit on 24-1-2009 by Kandinsky]

Originally posted by Kandinsky
A section of ATS members always opt for the 'worst case scenario'. The comfort zone involves being perpetually at the edge of Mankind's destruction or eternal servitude. A quick ATS search reveals ten pages of 'worst case scenario' threads. Fears of 'WCS' often act as the impetus that leads us into conflict in the first place

I'm not in that group, i think of all situations including the happy ones, and i hope for the happy ones to win out. There is nothing wrong in thinking of all the possible situations, it's only if you dwell on them and get all depressed that it matters