What are my chances against terrorism?

I need a good mathematics person or statisics person to tell me what are my chances of me getting wounded or killed in Iraq in percentages and the like please. I mean, they do stats like what are the chances of being struck by lightning and all so what are my chances in Iraq? Would I be sooner hit by a car then to be killed in Iraq, how about me being bitten by a shark? You get the point, I'll tell you my relative info....

I'm almost 29 years old
I'm in the USAF
I'll be deployed for 92 days to Balad Air Base/Baghdad international airport
I'm on escort duty, escorting nationals around the place to do manual labour and the like.

[Edited on 4-6-2004 by Cearbhall]

i have no idea what your chances are of getting killed in Iraq, but i am sure it is higher than it is right now.
I wish you well and hope that you return safe.

Well all that you have to do for a rough estimate is probably figure how many people have been killed there. Then turn that into a percent by comparing it to the number of Americans sent over there. The percentage is probably low but thats no reason not to be careful.

I was at both places, in the beginning, so I have no clue what it's like now, but maybe this will help. When I was there, the bases were safe. You just have to worry about morters. I never heard of Balad (I was there most of the time, although I traveled a lot) getting hit, but I know the airport got hit a couple of times. The locals who work on the base are just your average joes and seem to just worry about making a buck. They get searched before they come in, so they won't have any wepaons or stuff on them. The scariest part is when you're on convoys. Not what you asked for I know, but maybe it will help.

Well...the first recorded war death was 377 days ago, and you will be there 92 days, there is an average of about 2 deaths per month, so there will be about 6 deaths in the time period that you are there...with 150,000 troops...

Odds of Death: 1 out of 25,000
Odds of Injury: 1 out of 16,666
-----
Odds of Dying in a Car Crash: 1 out of 6,200 (these odds go for one year, on average, so actually 1 out of 90 given a life span of 75 years)

These are just rough estimates...you never know if you will be in a more hostile/less hostile area, or if the estimates of troops in Iraq is wrong, or how the battle will change when you get there...anyway, your odds look pretty good, the longer you are there the more risky it would be, theoretically...but there are too many variables to accurately estimate anything. Good luck out there.

[Edited on 6-4-2004 by Shoktek]

Originally posted by Shoktek
Well...the first recorded war death was 377 days ago, and you will be there 92 days, there is an average of about 2 deaths per month, so there will be about 6 deaths in the time period that you are there...with 150,000 troops...

Odds of Death: 1 out of 25,000
Odds of Injury: 1 out of 16,666

These are just rough estimates...you never know if you will be in a more hostile/less hostile area, or if the estimates of troops in Iraq is wrong, or how the battle will change when you get there...anyway, your odds look pretty good, the longer you are there the more risky it would be, theoretically...but there are too many variables to accurately estimate anything. Good luck out there.

I read a couple weeks back the average number of deaths now are 1 per day. Things have been pretty intense now so it will probably go up. Just be careful over there and really dont take it lightly. I didnt think there was a chance my uncle would get wounded or killed, but then he got shot and almost died(hes okay now though). Just be careful-thats all I have to say.

Your chances are already known by God. He watches you every second of the day and your mother mary too.



Pray frequently and often as you can, even to your guadian angel, and beg fo mercy not only for you but for yor crew. Im tellin you if you have even alittle faith you can dodge bullets with God. ive seen isatnces where my family members and i myself
should have died and they escaped eventsmiraculously.



Just constantly pray and beg for mercy.

That is an unknown at this time.

Average life expectancy for a RATELO (Radio/Telephone Operator) on patrol in Vietnam was a little under an hour.

M60 gunners weren't expected to last 60 seconds.

If you're in the Air Force, and you're going to Iraq, I'm sure you'll be just fine. That is to say you'll be safer than at least 50% of your peers. Sorry, can't get any more accurate than that.

You know what? I take that back. You can pray if you want to, but that post above me almost made me puke, so at this time I cannot condone that plan of action.

Just remember your training and do your job. That will keep you alive.

DeltaChaos

[Edited on 24-4-2004 by DeltaChaos]

Originally posted by Truth


Your chances are already known by God. He watches you every second of the day and your mother mary too.



Pray frequently and often as you can, even to your guadian angel, and beg fo mercy not only for you but for yor crew. Im tellin you if you have even alittle faith you can dodge bullets with God. ive seen isatnces where my family members and i myself
should have died and they escaped eventsmiraculously.



Just constantly pray and beg for mercy.

Follow this advice and your liable to get your arse shot off!

The odds don't really matter, what matters is keeping your whits about you and paying attention to whats going on. Don't take unnecessary chances, have your buddies back, and make sure he has yours.

Good luck and come home safe!

[Edited on 24-4-2004 by Seth Bullock]

"Well

Your chances are already known by God. He watches you every second of the day and your mother mary too.



Pray frequently and often as you can, even to your guadian angel, and beg fo mercy not only for you but for yor crew. Im tellin you if you have even alittle faith you can dodge bullets with God. ive seen isatnces where my family members and i myself
should have died and they escaped eventsmiraculously.

Just constantly pray and beg for mercy. "

This man is fearing for his life and ur throwing a load of fairy tale crap thats fit for lord of the rings? absolutly sickening. seriously, im not even joking.

fairytale crap?


that comes from a mouth without any hint of faith. have you seen the works of God through prayer? You think life is some joke, and
stuff happens for no reason?


your mind hasent even grasped what a miracle is and pondered upon it. Ive seen stuff nothing in the world can explain in private.



Cearbhall and I have talked before. he is a catholic and we have talked about the faith many times, and he does believe in it. And you have no clue why he believes in it nor I.



God knows when we will die, and how, and he will not let you die before its your time. if you pray to God he will hear you every time you open your mouth to him.




So to me it does not mater if my post made you sick, or whatever you want, but if you start trusting in your own skills or power and cockiness to get out alive as you guys pointed out, you might not. but if you rely on God he can creat miracles for you.



peace.

Originally posted by Truth
have you seen the works of God through prayer?

Have you seen the works of God through prayer? If so, what were they, and how do you know you weren't just seeing what you wanted to see, and also, how do you figure it was God's work.

You think life is some joke, and stuff happens for no reason?

Stuff for no reason? No, every effect has it's cause, but if I cut my finger, I should probably just be more careful. I don't think God did it.

your mind hasent even grasped what a miracle is and pondered upon it.

Yes it has.

Ive seen stuff nothing in the world can explain in private.

Such as?

And you have no clue why he believes in it nor I.

Yes I do.

...but if you start trusting in your own skills or power and cockiness to get out alive as you guys pointed out, you might not...

But you might! In fact, if he doesn't trust in his own skills and power, he's sure to get dead...

peace.

Through superior firepower.

Originally posted by Truth


Your chances are already known by God. He watches you every second of the day and your mother mary too.



Pray frequently and often as you can, even to your guadian angel, and beg fo mercy not only for you but for yor crew. Im tellin you if you have even alittle faith you can dodge bullets with God. ive seen isatnces where my family members and i myself
should have died and they escaped eventsmiraculously.



Just constantly pray and beg for mercy.

Can't you ever find somewhere else to spout this BS? This isn't the place for your religious drivel. Why doesn't this religious spammer get banned? This crap is definitely spam. How long can he get away with it?

Don't even try, DeltaChaos. He's as blind and brainwashed as they come. There is no logic or reason in his world....only "god".

[Edited on 4-26-2004 by Satyr]

Originally posted by Cearbhall
I'll be deployed for 92 days to Balad Air Base/Baghdad international airport
[Edited on 4-6-2004 by Cearbhall]

You can double that at least, after what has been going on recently.

Originally posted by Satyr
Don't even try, DeltaChaos. He's as blind and brainwashed as they come. There is no logic or reason in his world....only "god".

Yeah, which is why he won't bothering answering the questions. If I don't already know, I'm obviosly not worthy of knowing, right?

DC

i thank god that im not the only semi-sane person on this forum
(HAHA SEE WHAT I DID!?)

i dont see any point in completly avoiding reality. rather than trying to find ways around it, why dont you just learn to live with it? if i walk in front of a train, chances are im gona die. nothing anyone can do about it. simply due to massive trauma to my head and vital organs. theres no beatin around the bush. i wont have 5 seconds to run to some golden gateway and beg for god to forgive me for my sins (not saying you believe in that... but u may aswel do, its utterly absurd). why make all that fantasy crap up?! you should come live in Britain. i'd say we're pretty friggin down to earth.

If you want to be totally safe, just snap both your fingers, wave your hands in front of your face, and close your eyes. You'll be invisible, if god wills it. Remember, if you can't see them, they can't see you.

styr, what do you trust in? yourself? Do you remember that you remember that you are a spec on a small planet which spins in circles 24 hours a day in a universe?


Your brainwashed by your own pride. You guys are always the (sane) ones, jst because I talk about miracles and my belief. I never rew up being fed his, and nobody taught me this, but even if I have seen miracles from God its always insane unsincerity, but you who probably have seen miracles
but always pass them off as (luck) who does not exist. Its God who doesthestuff you can't explain notluck.



But Im brainwashed by my God. and your totally sane, so sane infact that you categorize all believers as brainwahsed druids, when you don't know one of them.




I spouted my reply because I kow cearbhall, and Ive talked about God with him before. Iwould not reply like this to someone I don't know has faith.



Think what you will though, because tese kind of arguings are nonsense. I know people who have seen miracles all the time and pas them off as "luck", becase they are to afraid to fathom the thought of a more powerful entity that exist that knos us inside and out, so they call everything
luck or lucky.



Peace.

Originally posted by Cearbhall
I need a good mathematics person or statisics person to tell me what are my chances of me getting wounded or killed in Iraq in percentages and the like please. I mean, they do stats like what are the chances of being struck by lightning and all so what are my chances in Iraq? Would I be sooner hit by a car then to be killed in Iraq, how about me being bitten by a shark? You get the point, I'll tell you my relative info....

I'm almost 29 years old
I'm in the USAF
I'll be deployed for 92 days to Balad Air Base/Baghdad international airport
I'm on escort duty, escorting nationals around the place to do manual labour and the like.

[Edited on 4-6-2004 by Cearbhall]

Isnt this sort of thing called Risk assesment or Risk Management? i saw it on the movie Along Came Polly
Ben Stiller was in that business and was assesing who would make a great wife.

Originally posted by Truth
...what do you trust in? yourself? Do you remember that you remember that you are a spec on a small planet which spins in circles 24 hours a day in a universe?

Truth, I'm not going to fight you, because you are a man of peace. But in what do you trust? Can't you see that the God that created you in His image intended for you to trust in yourself? He has given you everything you need here. And his intention is for you to follow the path you choose. If you don't trust yourself, you are foresaking every talent and ability God has given you. He gave you yourself for a purpose. And that purpose was for you to become like Him. The only way to do that is to know what he knows. Everything He knows. And to find everything for yourself. Like He did. Why you would denegrate yourself to a spec of dust, while knowing in your heart that you are God's greatest creation is beyond reason. Beyond the reason that God granted you at your birth into this world. God does not want self-depricating servants, ready to succumb to every whim. He wants to see us grow into beings that are His equal. His peer. God is lonely. That is why he created you. He wants a game of Chess. A walk on the beach. A life to share. Just as we all do. We are created in his image. Our wants are His wants. You need only look inside yourself to see what God expects. Expect the best, and do everything in your power to achieve it. The power is yours. By the grace of God.

DeltaChaos