Originally posted by fred3110
Originally posted by VelmaLu
Once the initial wave has died off, the rest will probably be too weak to be much of a problem. I figure after the first two months of the crisis,
things will sort of settle down, then the survivors can begin bartering, setting up community gardens, etc.
I dont disagree with you but I'd like to highlight this part of your post, after the initial wave has died off what makes you think the rest will be
too weak? If anything these people are gonna be the stronger ones for making it through the initial stages, they will probably be survivalists or
very determined criminals.
Okay, I'm not talking all events, or all situations, but probabilities. Here's sort of my thinking on it.
Let's say there is some nationwide, natural or man-made disaster. Once people grasp what is going on, there's going to be hordes of people hitting
the stores, buying up bottled water, getting cash, buying gas and supplies. It will be frantic and somewhat dangerous.
I'm guessing the people who have prepared are smart enough not to venture out into that nightmare, unless it's to get to their retreat location.
They will make the best decision about whether they should stay and wait or go now. They will have OPTIONS because they have met their immediate
Their risk of accident, injury or violent crime will be immediately lower. Looters and rioting generally take place in business areas and don't
affect people in their homes.
There will be many people gathering at government emergency shelters. These people will expect someone else to take care of them. These large groups
of people will be where most of the violence is concentrated.
People will die without water in about three days. Stupid people will not be resourceful. If food and water is not provided immediately, the rioting
will become much worse and will likely be initially directed at the shelter workers.
I suspect that in the initial three days will see the largest number of people die, either from injuries, violence, lack of water, etc. Most will die
waiting for help.
What you will have left are predators, resourceful people who can protect themselves, and the preppers.
Day four through the end of the second week, I suspect the predators will start tarketing the preppers, or anyone they can. However, the predators
will likely be weakened by fighting for survival, and will assume that taking from the preppers will be as easy as it was for the first part of the
disaster. Preppers will have the advantage because they have remained indoors, and have had adequate water, food, medical care and sleep.
I suspect if there is little or no law enforcement, these predators will be killed off rather quickly. I think it would be very easy for people to
come to the conclusion that if the predators were dead, then everyone would be a lot safer. I would not put it past people to simply hunt them down.
You loot, you die. You rape, you die. You try to break into my home, you die.
Even if they do not meet their demise at the end of a gun, by the second week without food, they will not be able to put up much of a fight. Most
people die without water in three days; without food in three weeks. They do not get stronger, but weaker and more desperate. They will make more
mistakes, have more injuries, and take greater risks. So by the second week, the numbers of people who didn't prepare dwindle.
Your survival odds are much higher remaining indoors, drinking, eating and sleeping as opposed to roaming around a disaster area, using force to gain
entry, fighting with armed people, etc.
I suspect the number of predators and resourceful people will be small by the end of two months. The preppers will probably be greater, and by
banding together, will find safety in numbers.
I am confident there will be exceptions to the rule, but I'm talking probabilities here, not individual circumstances.