Waiting For the Collapse?

Like many, I have been surprised that the total collapse has not come to fruition (yet). I was of the belief that once the ball started to roll it would hit a wall pretty quickly, but it seems that things will be more drawn out. Attempts like the bailout certainly should delay the inevitable, but are there other forces at work trying to prop up this farce of an economic system? Found this, and got a little lesson on something I didn't know much about...Plunge Protection Team!

republicbroadcasting.org...

IMO It has already gone and they are just holding it up as long as they can. I know to many people from different backrounds that cant undertand this either. Many of them went to check their 401k's as we did and found the balances to be zero. As in all gone! and none of us where told. Secondly they are definately fixing the California housing market, I live here and it isnt what they say it is. The only selling they might be able to claim is homes taken over under the tarp bail out of fanie and freddie. Last 2 weeks or so we had 1 in 37 in forclouser now its like 1 in 20 and they arent selling either. There is houses all over that are empty! I started paying attention and I can count 50 just going to the store! This market went away a few months ago and for some reason they are holding it up for now.
Oh and by the way the docks all over our major ports are loaded with food comodities that cant be picked up because no one will give the companies their normal letters of credit. Its cash or walk.

We'll probably crawl through this on our hands and knees now, I don't expect it to totally break down.

reply to post by BennyHill


I have not seen the PPT type save used for a while.. what would you call today, 10/27's drop with about 40 mins left in the session of a huge 200 point loss?

Big firms can move stocks quickly, which sometimes looks like the PPT, or like a huge sell off.

The markets are averaging a 20% drop this month. THAT IS HUGE ..

Markets don't just collapse in a day anymore though.

I think we will all come out on top in the end. I know I will get burned for saying it as it feels like we're going through hell right now, but I feel things are righting themselves.

I think they will have to smarten up and DO something with the empty houses....it is disgusting and rediculous to have x amount of homeless people, but a surplus of empty houses....somethings gotta give somewhere, somehow.

I am practically homeless myself. Bought a camper van though for when I gotta go, but I have been looking for affordable housing for over 6 months, and still stuck in the same place, being ripped off and feeling like a hostage.

reply to post by xoxo stacie

The "good news" that the market was munching on for a half of the trading day was about the sales of NEW homes. Whatever . . .

But you are right about looking around and see for yourself.

Originally posted by Rockpuck
reply to post by BennyHill

 

I have not seen the PPT type save used for a while.. what would you call today, 10/27's drop with about 40 mins left in the session of a huge 200 point loss?

Big firms can move stocks quickly, which sometimes looks like the PPT, or like a huge sell off.

The markets are averaging a 20% drop this month. THAT IS HUGE ..

Markets don't just collapse in a day anymore though.

As for todays loss, I'm not quite sure what to make of it. I watched all day and saw it myself; I do know that 14 banks will be taking loans from the government and many of them are prominent (Fifth-Third, PNC, SunTrust to name a few). Although I am not an avid investor (more like a interested spectator), I was surprised by some of the banks standing at the window for a handout. None of them had been mentioned prior, and I can't help but think that things are finally getting beyond the point of being manageable. Should be very interesting to see how things progress going into next Tuesday.

Originally posted by Rockpuck
Markets don't just collapse in a day anymore though.

That's the lesson learned from 9/11. You go floor a day.



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Over at Mish's blog, the concensus is the since the PPT always show up ~3:00 est, traders have it timed until the very end.....02c

IF I recall, several times in the last 2 weeka there was a jump~3:00 (PPT)

I could be completely off base here so please someone correct me if I'm wrong.

I believe that there are lots of folks still trying to make money in the market and are refusing to see the fundamental flaws in the system. Low prices are a buy, buy situation for them. Still though, the market creeps lower. I think once the market reaches a certain level, even the daredevils will bow out.

Just an observation from an uneducated market watcher.

reply to post by tmbandt


I would have to agree with you. The fact is, buy low and sell high. When prices are as low as they are, conventional wisdom says, "man, I gotta buy...there are 'some great bargains' out there!"

Sadly, the market continues to creep down and down and down and down.

At some point, the average investor is going to have to say, "to hell with this, I'm out...selling it all now!"

Perhaps when the hedge funds begin selling their holdings (as some have speculted this week or next), that will be the shining and waking moment for them.

Originally posted by tmbandt
I could be completely off base here so please someone correct me if I'm wrong.

I believe that there are lots of folks still trying to make money in the market and are refusing to see the fundamental flaws in the system. Low prices are a buy, buy situation for them. Still though, the market creeps lower. I think once the market reaches a certain level, even the daredevils will bow out.

Just an observation from an uneducated market watcher.

Most of the people who leave the market are speculators who are there to make a short-term buck or somewhat depend on the dividends. But there are others who know that economic downturns don't last forever and don't sell. They are the ones who hold the bottom of the market but are outnumbered by the speculators. Bill Gates, for example, doesn't give a crap if the market is heading south-east almost every day. He just sees things differently:
sify.com...

All it will take is the derivatives starting to tank and the market will crash really hard, however the markets wont have allot to do with the rest of our economic problems.. I foresee more than just markets loosing money.. that's just the tip of the iceberg.

Originally posted by E-ville
All it will take is the derivatives starting to tank and the market will crash really hard, however the markets wont have allot to do with the rest of our economic problems.. I foresee more than just markets loosing money.. that's just the tip of the iceberg.

The first sign of share price depreciation starting to hurt really bad beyond the floor are protective measures that stock exchanges put in place. There are not too many though. The most popular is the one that the Japanese just took.

Oct. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Japan brought forward restrictions on short-selling of shares as stocks in Tokyo extended five days of declines to the lowest levels since October 1982.

Finance Minister Shoichi Nakagawa said a temporary ban on so-called naked short sales will take effect today. The temporary ban was previously scheduled to start on Nov. 4.

Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average has lost 24 percent over the past five trading days as a soaring currency eroded earnings of exporters such as Canon Inc. Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Hirohide Yamaguchi said yesterday the bank is considering buying shares in Japanese companies owned by commercial banks after the stock market plunged to a 26-year low.

``We've discussed with the Prime Minister that the next couple days will be crucial for the Japanese market and unless we implement these rules immediately in this crisis, we may face serious problems,'' Nakagawa, who is also minister in charge of regulating the financial sector, said at a press conference in Tokyo. ``We need to have rules that match the level of those in the U.S. and Europe.''

harakiri, tsunami, hiroshima, nagasaki . . . just these four. No I don't speak Mandarin.


[edit on 10/27/2008 by stander]

BennyHill

As for todays loss, I'm not quite sure what to make of it.

Well .. you got to think what moves the markets now? .. The DOW only represents 30 companies, even if every bank needs these cash infusion, most of the big banks are listed on the S&P .. What kept the DOW up all morning was Verizon's report which showed the company is still strong.. Home Depot going strong today, Walmart was doing good all day and then was part of the big sell off at the end (looks like someone somewhere liquidated a # ton of assets... Coke was doing awesome today until the sell off, Microsoft was volatile, but held it's own until the sell off..

I mean ..

These companies on the DOW are not being .. effected.. as of right now. They are seeing sales drop.. some anyways.. but companies like Microsoft, Coke, Intel, KRAFT, they are not going any where..

Hell Kraft should be doing awesome through this depression, I mean recession.. if I had to live off anything, it would be mac n' cheese!

Although I am not an avid investor (more like a interested spectator), I was surprised by some of the banks standing at the window for a handout.

Some of them .. imo, I don't have insider insight .. are going to take these loans are insanely low interest rates, or sell a minority share to the Gov for a short time so that they can recapitalize, or perhaps even expand in a market where assets are cheap.

I don't think every bank taking the "deal" is in trouble exactly.

I was interested to see GM, Ford and Chrysler (a Limited Liability Corporation, IE, privately owned) possibly being funded and propped up by the Gov.

EVen for asking, I am officially boycotting all three for as long as I live, or perhaps, as long as THEY live.

The audacity..

PS, I predicted on the Nikei thread -200 today.

[edit on 10/27/2008 by Rockpuck]

one of my truly bad habits is watching market trends....
if you understand how these trends go, then today you would have noticed the market was artificially supported...

who would do that most likely would be any number of world governments and due to the very large hits I would venture to guess one form Asia, japan or china maybe????

the real tell came just before 2pm... that support was withdrawn and stocks fell like a house of cards...

Almost all of the 203 point drop came in the last 10 minutes of the session. even strong hedge funds were sold off so they could meet investors demands for their money back. These forced sell-offs tend to happen late in the day, when the funds figure out how much cash they'll need to meet redemption's. if the Dow were to finish the month at today's levels, it would be the worst month since September 1931

What to watch for now is the Treasury Department said it will start moving the bailout money to the banks soon...what we do know is these same banks have made few moves to free up money but have ear marked their shares for things like employee raises management bonuses and of course PNC made no secret they will use their bailout money to buy up other banks...(Not to make loan money available) Naturally there will be more outrage once that not so minor fact gets out and the fall out might just mean the suspension of cash hand outs to companies and the FED just buying up short debt AKA commercial paper.

Obviously there was this little blip, higher home sales last month... That came from investors dumping their stocks and buying up foreclosed properties. that blip should be over...

The simple fact even old retired guys like me got out or want out. as more investors demand to cash out these hedge funds and big banks are pressed harder then ever to meet margin calls, (Demand for payment) many of them just wont make it through this time around... what you see is nothing more than a death rattle as the major players struggle to keep what they have and not letting go until the very end.

Originally posted by E-ville
All it will take is the derivatives starting to tank and the market will crash really hard, however the markets wont have allot to do with the rest of our economic problems.. I foresee more than just markets loosing money.. that's just the tip of the iceberg.

That is the nail on the head. The derivatives market is huge and scary. Hell, noone even knows the extent of it. Talk about selling crapt based on crapt...

This market is a trader's dream if you watch certain stocks and pick out their pattern. You can buy financials in afterhours and flip them in the morning and then head to the office. It truly doesn't get any easier right now.

But others are right in that you don't lose if you don't sell. This downturn is necessary, healthy and expected (unless one had their head up their a--).

reply to post by stander

hmmm...i say now watch Japan stabilize.
naked shorting is an NWO tool, a weapon of mass destruction.
some honest governements take that tool away..
naturally - not US SEC....these guys are as corrupt as it gets.

well done for Japan. smart move.

Originally posted by Rockpuck

PS, I predicted on the Nikei thread -200 today.

Hey, Rockpuck, I think that you're the only guy around who can correct me if I'm wrong. The expletives are about to hear the loud margin calls. Do you think that we would see the action this way? I wanna make sure that I don't miss anything.



What do you think?