Predicted Ideal Investing Portfolio for War, Recession & Political crisis times

The Peace of God to all that belong to the light,
Dear Readers,
This are advisible portofolio guidelines that I can suggest in response to the insistent questions of this subject arrived to my inbox, and that can aid the people to go ahead and surpass successfully the so difficult incoming times in epoch of War, Recession and political Crisis. Of course these are only general guidelines so I am planning to offer to the public a more detailed material that can allow you not only to supervive but also to profit in these times that we have ahead.
This is the way in which the Crisis will evolute :
A general and uncontroled inflation trend caused by the high prices of Petroleum directly and indirectly over many important products through the increase in the transportation costs.
We are going to experience the contraction of the demand of goods produced by the extra cost of Gasoline for the public not only in the USA but in many western countries, this can lead to deflaction.
Many goods and products that were for years very well demanded will be completely discharged by the customers due to the so difficult situation in which the income is going to be only enough to cover basic needs.
If your interests are on the trade or production of luxury goods I would suggest you to start to diversify your businesses on time, since in laterly will be traped by your own current source of income.
The devaluation of the dollar and its negative impact in the acquisitive capacity of the American people. In this aspect the critical point will arrive since there is a tremendous external debt that USA has now especially with the Asiatic Tigers and with China in particular. This external debt will push Dollar downward and at the same time will create a Domino effect between the American recession and the emergent crisis on the Asiatic Economies.
The impact of the entrance of China in the World Commerce organization, that is going to damage the normal behaviour of many markets and hence the income of many industries when this so powerful producer of goods at so low cost expands its positions thanks to the free competition.
The incredible expansion of the credit as the principal way to maintain the economy floating with good indicators is going to create a false image of the Economy until the moment in which the crisis exploits, that is going to be like great fall of water toward many people is navigating silently and without expecting to reach it, this will be terrible for many investors that are planning based on false assumptions.
The increasing speculation on the markets is going to create great uncertainty in many sectors, specially in sectors like stocks and commodities that are dependent of the costs of transportation sensibly affected by the increase of the oil prizes.
Europe will be the great surprise in 2009, since it is going to enter in recession even faster than the United states, the increasing tension with Russia, due to the conflict in the Caucasus, will create enormous difficulties to assure the suply of energetics necessary for the industry of many countries in that region.
This situation will leave Europe in the hands of the Arab countries to solve its needs in hidrocarbures, and will boost the cost of life in a form that was not viewed since the end of 1920s.
The strategy of the Bush Administration will be to makeup many important economical indicators by the government through manipulation of information, the official statistics, with certain important bias in order to look better than they are until the election of November.
The cost that represents to the American people the war in the Middle East will be probably the drop that overload the cup, since further complications that are going to arrive in the near future when this conflict will go out of control under new circumstances in the international political arena.
The risk that a so tied Presidential Election represents will cause great panic in the investors, there is a so real possibility that will not be a clear winner for a period of time that could be of some weeks to even months. The political tension will weak the dollar in a terrible way and that is going to impede the American Economy to fullfill its international compromises with the external sources of financiation.
The last chapter of this crisis will be when the Chinese and Far East economical crisis start, that will be a tremendous moment for the world, since China will blame its American debtors and associates for the breaking of its economy.
Under these so cloudy horizon I can suggest:
- Be extremely cautious with new businesses , take decissions based on very serious analysis in which risk must be all the time weighted more than the income.
- Think in substitutes of the currency to avoid the losses produced by the devaluation: invest capital in Gold, Silver, Platinum, diammonds and other precious stones.
- Think also to put important part of your portfolio in Real State inversions but acquired in Cash, not through credit.
- If you are going to inverse in Stocks you must focus in companies of Primary demand products manufactory( packed meals of great comsumption, medical suplies, farmacy, personal care goods, agriculture insumes)
- If you are going to deal with commodities look only for well behaved ones, follow carefully their cicles of demand and never inverse more than 30% of your portfolio in this sector. In this market Energetics and noble metals could be the smartest option.
- Although Automotive industry will not be a good business it can be profitable if you Don’t trade with big cars but with small & extremely economic in gas ones, I you prefer the used cars than the models of the year, the demand of them will be less weaken by the crisis and more over if you focus on Public Transportation sector that will be boosted on the crisis.
- Invest your money in different points of the planet, start commercial relationships with associates positioned in diverse markets.
- Countries that will represent good options of inversion will be the ones with great reserves of Energetics, lower costs of production and good economical behavior that at the same time have good trade relationship with the Industrial world, in that sense Azerbaidjan, Mexico, Rumania, Ukraine, Belarus, Russia, Brasil, Colombia, Peru, Argentina, Chile,Costa Rica, Canada can be good choices.
- A general migratory reform in the States could be a good decission since it will give the Economy the needed cheap cost workers to produce more un lower cost and in that way make competitive the American economy with respect to the far east countries.
- Under the limits of Democracy United states must develop a more aggressive role in the LatinAmerica Continent to promote political changes in countries like Venezuela, Equator, Bolivia, Nicaragua & of course Cuba, before they spread their enemisty to the rest of the continent. This could be done through social-democratic & liberal parties. This must be a priority of the New President of the US who ever that person be.
- If it appear, as it could happen, a technology that assure the quickly transformation of our present automotive industry to the use of a new energetic, that will be by sure an excelent opportunity of investing.
- Currency market will be a so risky inversion sector, since all the principal currencies will be oscilating during the crisis, with so weak stability. However if some country start to use noble metal currency, as it look can happen in Mexico or Russia, that will be very attractive and secure.
Thanks,
Your friend,
The Angel of lightness


[edit on 9/13/2008 by The angel of light]

The Peace of God to all that belong to the light,
Dear Readers,

We are finishing a memorable day in Wallstreet that showed clearly that this no longer a disacceleration of the Economy, as President Bush several times has told, but the begining of a so serious Recession that put in risk not only the economical stability of America but the continuity of the global economy model.

It is enough to check the reactions of the Presidential candidates to understand the dimension of the drama that today occured when two of the most prestigious and elder investing banks of America finally colapsed under the pressure of the bad indicators that we are experienced since the begining of this 2008 and that I predicted would happen since the summer of 2007.

Obama called it "the most serious financial crisis since the Great Depression." McCain declared in a new TV ad that "our economy is in crisis" and that only he and his running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, could fix it. McCain also told voters in Jacksonville, Fla., "The fundamentals of our economy are strong."

Everybody is waiting the message of the President of the Federal Reserve to the nation announced emergency plans in the middle of the uncertaintity and the evident so long silence of the white house about with respect to this preambule of a Crash that ocurred this Monday in which down jones droped 505 points, the worst fall since Sept 11 of 2001.

Although it is still difficult that the politicians agree if this was a Black Monday or not it is clear that the stock market is trembling, that the American economy is seriously sick and my forecast about the possibility to have a black tuesday or Thrusday in any moment sounds more factible now than in any other moment of this terrible year.

Lehman brothers was a finance bank that supervived the great depression so today it was a trully white elephant, a giant the one that collapsed and this indicator is something that cannot admite more makeup actions, there is no way to continue hidden the truth that the current Economical model is totaly wasted, so probably in the future the History will register todays date as the one in which the illusion of Globalization finally vanished.

Just only 2 days after I posted my ideal portfolio of investment for severe Crysis times here we have the first open declaration in the financial circles of the begining of a Recession:

"We are in the middle of a deep, dark recession, and it won't end soon. Here it is, and it is pretty nasty," said Barry Ritholtz, who writes the popular financial blog The Big Picture and is CEO of research firm FusionIQ.

you can check the whole article at:
news.yahoo.com...

thanks for your attention,

The Angel of lightness







[edit on 9/15/2008 by The angel of light]

The Peace of God to all that belong to the light,
Dear Readers,

Let me please insist once again that the present crisis that we have all around the world, clearly expressed in the so low performance of the stock markets is showing that globalization model is arriving to its inexorable end.

Also let me insist that the only way to prevent bigger damages to our economy and to our dependency with respect to the rest of the world in this so difficult times is to modify the current mercantile model to an industrialized one.

Finally let me point once again that this is the precise Moment, and no other one in the future, in which the Great Capital must take drastic decissions to move their inversions from China to a more secure places and primarly to American territory since there is so high risk to lose them in that country.

The Powerful Dragon that is predicted to arrive to the world scenario causing to tremble the whole world, something that was clearly stated by great viewers in the past like St John, Ulrich of Maguncia,
St. John Bosco or Jeanne Dixon is no other than the Peoples Republic of China.

That great Nation allied with the Islamic world is going to start a general crusade against not only America and the free economy but against the so called supremacy of the western civilization and it would raise the flag of end of the hegemony of the White race.

The Great Economical Crash in the United States together with the effort of the American technology to find energetic authonomy with respect to the traditional sources of oil are going to be the reasons for which this terrible international conflict will exploide.

If the American empresarios in China don't react on time doing the movements that I am requesting, in response to this urgent call, they will laterly be the first to cry so bitterly their own bankrupty.

Thanks for your attention,

your friend,

The Angel of Lightness






[edit on 10/12/2008 by The angel of light]