posted on Sep, 13 2008 @ 06:54 PM
The Peace of God to all that belong to the light,
This are advisible portofolio guidelines that I can suggest in response to the insistent questions of this subject arrived to my inbox, and that can
aid the people to go ahead and surpass successfully the so difficult incoming times in epoch of War, Recession and political Crisis. Of course these
are only general guidelines so I am planning to offer to the public a more detailed material that can allow you not only to supervive but also to
profit in these times that we have ahead.
This is the way in which the Crisis will evolute :
A general and uncontroled inflation trend caused by the high prices of Petroleum directly and indirectly over many important products through the
increase in the transportation costs.
We are going to experience the contraction of the demand of goods produced by the extra cost of Gasoline for the public not only in the USA but in
many western countries, this can lead to deflaction.
Many goods and products that were for years very well demanded will be completely discharged by the customers due to the so difficult situation in
which the income is going to be only enough to cover basic needs.
If your interests are on the trade or production of luxury goods I would suggest you to start to diversify your businesses on time, since in laterly
will be traped by your own current source of income.
The devaluation of the dollar and its negative impact in the acquisitive capacity of the American people. In this aspect the critical point will
arrive since there is a tremendous external debt that USA has now especially with the Asiatic Tigers and with China in particular. This external debt
will push Dollar downward and at the same time will create a Domino effect between the American recession and the emergent crisis on the Asiatic
The impact of the entrance of China in the World Commerce organization, that is going to damage the normal behaviour of many markets and hence the
income of many industries when this so powerful producer of goods at so low cost expands its positions thanks to the free competition.
The incredible expansion of the credit as the principal way to maintain the economy floating with good indicators is going to create a false image of
the Economy until the moment in which the crisis exploits, that is going to be like great fall of water toward many people is navigating silently and
without expecting to reach it, this will be terrible for many investors that are planning based on false assumptions.
The increasing speculation on the markets is going to create great uncertainty in many sectors, specially in sectors like stocks and commodities that
are dependent of the costs of transportation sensibly affected by the increase of the oil prizes.
Europe will be the great surprise in 2009, since it is going to enter in recession even faster than the United states, the increasing tension with
Russia, due to the conflict in the Caucasus, will create enormous difficulties to assure the suply of energetics necessary for the industry of many
countries in that region.
This situation will leave Europe in the hands of the Arab countries to solve its needs in hidrocarbures, and will boost the cost of life in a form
that was not viewed since the end of 1920s.
The strategy of the Bush Administration will be to makeup many important economical indicators by the government through manipulation of
information, the official statistics, with certain important bias in order to look better than they are until the election of November.
The cost that represents to the American people the war in the Middle East will be probably the drop that overload the cup, since further
complications that are going to arrive in the near future when this conflict will go out of control under new circumstances in the international
The risk that a so tied Presidential Election represents will cause great panic in the investors, there is a so real possibility that will not be a
clear winner for a period of time that could be of some weeks to even months. The political tension will weak the dollar in a terrible way and that
is going to impede the American Economy to fullfill its international compromises with the external sources of financiation.
The last chapter of this crisis will be when the Chinese and Far East economical crisis start, that will be a tremendous moment for the world, since
China will blame its American debtors and associates for the breaking of its economy.
Under these so cloudy horizon I can suggest:
- Be extremely cautious with new businesses , take decissions based on very serious analysis in which risk must be all the time weighted more than the
- Think in substitutes of the currency to avoid the losses produced by the devaluation: invest capital in Gold, Silver, Platinum, diammonds and other
- Think also to put important part of your portfolio in Real State inversions but acquired in Cash, not through credit.
- If you are going to inverse in Stocks you must focus in companies of Primary demand products manufactory( packed meals of great comsumption, medical
suplies, farmacy, personal care goods, agriculture insumes)
- If you are going to deal with commodities look only for well behaved ones, follow carefully their cicles of demand and never inverse more than 30%
of your portfolio in this sector. In this market Energetics and noble metals could be the smartest option.
- Although Automotive industry will not be a good business it can be profitable if you Don’t trade with big cars but with small & extremely economic
in gas ones, I you prefer the used cars than the models of the year, the demand of them will be less weaken by the crisis and more over if you focus
on Public Transportation sector that will be boosted on the crisis.
- Invest your money in different points of the planet, start commercial relationships with associates positioned in diverse markets.
- Countries that will represent good options of inversion will be the ones with great reserves of Energetics, lower costs of production and good
economical behavior that at the same time have good trade relationship with the Industrial world, in that sense Azerbaidjan, Mexico, Rumania, Ukraine,
Belarus, Russia, Brasil, Colombia, Peru, Argentina, Chile,Costa Rica, Canada can be good choices.
- A general migratory reform in the States could be a good decission since it will give the Economy the needed cheap cost workers to produce more un
lower cost and in that way make competitive the American economy with respect to the far east countries.
- Under the limits of Democracy United states must develop a more aggressive role in the LatinAmerica Continent to promote political changes in
countries like Venezuela, Equator, Bolivia, Nicaragua & of course Cuba, before they spread their enemisty to the rest of the continent. This could be
done through social-democratic & liberal parties. This must be a priority of the New President of the US who ever that person be.
- If it appear, as it could happen, a technology that assure the quickly transformation of our present automotive industry to the use of a new
energetic, that will be by sure an excelent opportunity of investing.
- Currency market will be a so risky inversion sector, since all the principal currencies will be oscilating during the crisis, with so weak
stability. However if some country start to use noble metal currency, as it look can happen in Mexico or Russia, that will be very attractive and
The Angel of lightness
[edit on 9/13/2008 by The angel of light]