Predict the electoral college thread

Lets try not to turn this into a mudslinging fest. What is everyone predictions on how the electoral college will work out?

Here is how it is going at realclearpolitics.com A pretty unbiased website. Their predictions are on this site. Including toss ups. Obama is up 238 - 174 with 126 toss up votes left up for grabs.

Obama 238 McCain 174

Heres mine..
Mine changes from Obama at 238 to Obama at 322.
McCain changes from 174 to 216.

But the popular vote will be much closer. Something like 66 million for Obama to 60 million for McCain

With Obama narrowly winning New Mexico, Indiana, Florida, Ohio and Penn (toss up in the real time map)

Mccain narrowly wins Virginia, Nevada, Colorado, and overwhelmingly wins North Carolina


Obviously others will disagree, and I wouldnt be surprised to see some dems thinking Obama will win every state and I know some posters on the right will think Mccain is taking every state as well.

Point is, this could be fun to predict. LEts try and keep it that way.

reply to post by bknapple32


Electoral-vote.com that compiles it's prediction on multiple polling data has this as of 9/5/08:

Obama: 301 McCain: 224

www.electoral-vote.com...

Also, after looking at the map click on electorol graphs and see how the McCain camp is taking a drop like a hard rock following the circus this week.
and where the heck is Palin? She is refusing to talk to anyone in the press...hello where are you Sarah? Why is she hiding?

[edit on 5-9-2008 by skyshow]

Realclearpolitics.com with no toss up states has a prediction of Obama 273 - Mccain at 265.

They give Mccain florida and Ohio and Virginia while giving Obama New Mexico, Colorado Michigan and Pennsylvania.

I would go another route. But thats me. My predictions are on the OP.

Thanks for making this thread! You're right. It's fun!

How about his for a prediction. Go with the no-toss-up map except give McCain New Hampshire instead of Obama.

What's that give you?

Obama 269 McCain 269.


Personally, I think the bitter, white, gun-toting, religion clinging voters in PA will give him the win.

My prediction:

McCain gets PA and New Hampshire and the final tally:

McCain 285 Obama 253

reply to post by jamie83


Oh Jaime, leave it to you to throw in some politics. lol. giving new hampshire to mccain would be nuts 269-269?!?!?!?!!? thats crazy and fun, but the last thing we need.

Originally posted by bknapple32
reply to post by jamie83

 

Oh Jaime, leave it to you to throw in some politics. lol. giving new hampshire to mccain would be nuts 269-269?!?!?!?!!? thats crazy and fun, but the last thing we need.

No intent to throw in politics. Just added that in to explain why I think PA will go to McCain.

And from what I read somewhere a while back I think if it's 269-269 the Dem congress gets to vote for POTUS and the Senate for VP.

How cool would that be?

Obama as POTUS and Palin as VP.

I'd take that ticket right now just for the entertainment value!




[edit on 5-9-2008 by jamie83]

reply to post by jamie83


SNL would def. get its ratings back. what an interesting ticket. i almost want it

Great subject.

My prediction:

297 for Obama
241 for McCain

reply to post by Benevolent Heretic


What are some of the major states for each candidate in your map?

Electoral Votes

McCain

-Texas (34)
-Florida (27)
-Georgia (15)
-North Carolina (15)
-Virginia (13)
-Missouri (11)
-Tennessee (11)
-Arizona (10)
-Louisiana (9)
-Alabama (9)
-S. Carolina (8)
-Kentucky (8)
-Iowa (7)
-Oklahoma (7)
-Kansas (6)
-Arkansas (6)
-Mississippi (6)
-Utah (5)
-Nevada (5)
-Nebraska (5)
-West Virginia (5)
-Idaho (4)
-Alaska (3)
-Montana (3)
-N. Dakota (3)
-S. Dakota (3)
-Wyoming (3)

241 for McCain

Obama

-California (55)
-New York (31)
-Illinois (21)
-Pennsylvania (21)
-Ohio (20)
-Michigan (17)
-New Jersey (15)
-Massachusetts (12)
-Washington (11)
-Indiana (11)
-Maryland (10)
-Minnesota (10)
-Wisconsin (10)
-Colorado (9)
-Oregon (7)
-Connecticut (7)
-New Mexico (5)
-Hawaii (4)
-Maine (4)
-New Hampshire (4)
-Rhode Island (4)
-Vermont (3)
-Delaware (3)
-D.C. (3)

297 for Obama

Interactive Electoral Map

Originally posted by skyshow
www.electoral-vote.com...

They have Pennsylvania and Ohio going democrat.
I don't think so.
It's too early to see what the Palin effect will have.

They also have Michigan as 'weak democrat'.
I think it is solidly democrat.

IMHO

reply to post by FlyersFan


i tihnk the palin effect is over. its been a full week now. the vp effect is present in three areas..

VP announcement
VP debate
VP's state in the electoral college

Originally posted by bknapple32
i tihnk the palin effect is over.

I agree - except in Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Those two states will decide the outcome - IMHO - and Palin and her hubby are blue collar UNIONITES. It'll play well with those who are 'bitterly clinging to their guns and religion.'

Around here (Philly area) Biden is pushing his 'Scranton roots' from long ago instead of his Delaware home. But Palin and her husband are being well received.

Originally posted by FlyersFan
They have Pennsylvania and Ohio going democrat.
I don't think so.
It's too early to see what the Palin effect will have.

I am in Western PA, not far from Ohio. I can tell you anecdotally Obama is in DEEP trouble here if what people are telling me about is any indication.

He had a fundraiser in Pittsburgh Thursday (I think it was Thursday) and only 50 people attended. It was private, and at the William Penn Hotel. Franco Harris was there, and through mutual contacts, I was told that there are signs of panic and desperation starting to come out. Their fear is the black inner city vote + the white liberal yuppy vote isn't going to be enough to beat the white, blue collar, Hillary/Reagan democrats plus 2nd Amendment suburban conservatives.

From what I understand, it's all about numbers and voter turnout, not convincing independents who to vote for, but to actually go out and vote.

Obama planned on the "stealing" the election by getting blacks and college kids out to vote in huge numbers. I know it's not really stealing it, but it's to get across the point that it didn't matter if he won over a majority -what mattered is that he won over a majority that he could convince to actually get out and vote.

What they are very worried about is that Palin just lit a fire under millions of people who were luke warm to voting.

In other words, it's not about convincing somebody to vote for Obama or McCain. It's about making sure you get enough on your side out to vote. They already figured that people made up their minds WHO they liked and didn't like.

Again, this is all anecdotal evidence and hearsay from a friend who is friends with people at the fundraiser. But I would watch closely the campaigning that's going to go on in PA and Ohio.

Oh... one other note... there is a lot of behind the scenes complaining going on about Ed Rendell, and how he's not doing enough to give PA to Obama. His 2nd term is almost over, and I don't think he would even accept a job in the administration if offered one by Obama. He might be the one person who holds the outcome of the election in his hands.

If he doesn't go full out in PA for Obama, it's going to be tough for Obama to win here.

reply to post by jamie83


I live in Nevada, and while we only have 5 electoral votes. RIP, Tim Russert, he said that the election could come down to lowly ole' Nevada.

Originally posted by bknapple32
reply to post by jamie83

 

I live in Nevada, and while we only have 5 electoral votes. RIP, Tim Russert, he said that the election could come down to lowly ole' Nevada.

My gut feeling is Obama has an edge in the western swing states that are close calls. Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico.

I also wouldn't be shocked to see Obama win the popular vote by a couple million votes and McCain edge him in the electoral votes.

Maybe it will come down to Nevada. I really don't want to stay up until 3:00 am like last time.

Originally posted by bknapple32
reply to post by FlyersFan

 

i tihnk the palin effect is over. its been a full week now. the vp effect is present in three areas..

VP announcement
VP debate
VP's state in the electoral college

Negative. This from Rasmussen:

Tracking Poll results are based upon nightly telephone interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. As a result, roughly two-thirds of the interviews were completed before McCain’s speech on Wednesday night. One third were completed before Alaska Governor Sarah Palin’s speech on Wednesday. Tomorrow (Sunday) will be the first update based entirely upon interviews conducted after Palin’s speech and Monday will be the first based entirely upon interviews conducted after McCain’s speech. By Tuesday or Wednesday, the overall impact of both political conventions should be fairly clear.

www.rasmussenreports.com...

This is what I came up with:

Obama 286
McCain 252

Obama states: WA,OR,CA,HI,MN,IA,WI,IL,MI,VT,NH,ME,NY,PA,VA,MA,RI,CT,NJ,DE,MD,DC,CO,MN.

McCain states:ID,NV,MT,WY,UT,AZ,AK,ND,SD,NE,KS,OK,TX,MO,AR,LA,IN,OH,WV,KY,TN,NC,SC,MS,AL,GA,FL.

Obama needs to focus on Ohio and Florida.

McCain needs to focus on Pennsylvania, Virginia and Colorado.

I agree with Jamie about the Western states with the exception oF Nevada.

Funny story, back in 2000 I was at work when a decent size protest/mini riot right outside in the street to protest the SCOTUS decision. We got to watch the whole thing happen a few feet in front of us through the windows.

reply to post by Benevolent Heretic


Almost exact in terms of how I think its going to go down. McCain is getting Ohio though.

revamping this cause i saw another topic being posted about it. just thought people would want to see predictions from earlier in the election year