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Forbes Newsletter Watch
Amid Gloom, Gold Glitters
John Dobosz, 03.05.03, 10:30 AM ET
NEW YORK - Grab your bullion. Gold is about to bounce back, according to top advisers. Fresh off hitting multiyear highs a month ago, gold is now down about 10%, to $350 per ounce. It seems that foreigners--who continue to soak up our music and movies--are increasingly avoiding our currency. The current geopolitical instability isn't helping matters, and most of the close watchers of the shiny yellow metal say it all translates into a bright future for gold.
Tom O'Brien, editor of The Gold Report, points out that the recent pullback in gold and gold-stock prices has been on much lighter volume than the huge run that took the metal to a $385-per-ounce close last month. "Markets don't top on high volume," says O'Brien, who likens the bull market under way now in gold to that in technology stocks in the late 1990s. "This is just like Microsoft, Dell or Cisco was in 1999--up on huge volume and then a consolidation on lighter volume, only to come roaring back with a vengeance."
O'Brien's favorite gold stocks: Gold Fields (nyse: GFI - news - people ) and Glamis Gold (nyse: GLG - news - people ). Mutual funds have been big buyers of Gold Fields, says O'Brien, and Glamis' chart is "textbook bullish" for the long term.
Curtis Hesler of Missoula, Mont.-based Professional Timing Service sees future gold prices linked inversely and inextricably to the value of the U.S. dollar, which has been in decline for the last 12 months. "Gold is a dollar thing, and the dollar is in a long-term bear market from what I can see," says Hesler, who points out that the Federal Reserve has committed itself to fighting deflation by inflating the money supply.
Both Hesler and O'Brien agree that gold could come down another $10 per ounce or so, but that the long-term trend here is decidedly bullish. Hesler recommends buying Anglogold (nyse: AU - news - people ) and ASA (nyse: ASA - news - people ), a closed-end fund invested in South African mining companies. Another fund he likes: Central Fund of Canada (nyse: CEF - news - people ), which holds at least 85% in gold and silver bullion. Hesler also likes Golden Star Resources (amex: GSS - news - people ) and Cumberland Resources (traded on the Toronto exchange under "CBD").
One of the most intellectually entertaining and passionate editors in weekly publication is Richard Daughty of The Mogambu Guru. Daughty calls himself the "angriest man in economics" and devotes a large portion of his weekly letter to verbally mutilating the Fed for rampant inflation of the money supply. He sees this as more fuel for the gold fire. "There is no way, as in no freaking way in hell, that gold cannot rise in price eventually, and with enough rise to completely offset the roaring inflation in the money supply that we have been seeing for years now," says Daughty. "If you are not buying gold at these prices, then you are not competent to manage money or make economic commentary."