Clinton Needs Record Margins, Turnout to Catch Obama

Clinton Needs Record Margins, Turnout to Catch Obama

www.bloomberg.com

By Catherine Dodge and Kristin Jensen


April 21 (Bloomberg) -- To overtake Barack Obama in the nationwide popular vote, Hillary Clinton needs a bigger win in tomorrow's Pennsylvania primary than she has had in any major contest so far. And that's just for starters.

After more than 40 Democratic primaries and caucuses, Obama, the Illinois senator, leads Clinton by more than 800,000 votes. Even if the New York senator wins by more than 20 percentage points tomorrow -- a landslide few experts expect -- she would still have a hard time catching him.

Clinton needs ``blowout numbers,'' says Peter Fenn, a Democratic consultant who isn't affiliated with either campaign. ``The wheels would have to come off the Obama bus, and the engine would have to blow.''

A popular-vote victory is vital to Clinton's chances because she is likely to end the primaries still trailing Obama, 46, in the race for delegates to the Democratic National Convention.

According to an unofficial tally by the Associated Press, Obama currently leads by a margin of 1,645 to 1,504 among pledged delegates and those superdelegates -- elected and party officials who get an automatic vote on the nomination -- who have indicated a preference. It will take 2,025 delegates to win the nomination.

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And it ain't gonna happen. Once again Clinton's huge lead has dwindled to within the margin of error and while it doesn't look like either will sweep Pennsylvania, that fact bodes far worse for Clinton than it does Obama. After all the Democrats divide the delegates proportionally according to the precentage of the vote, and even if Hillary does well, Obama will still gain.

Be a man Hillary and call it a day.

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[edit on 21-4-2008 by grover]