Scientists Confirm Significant Global Cooling Coming

reply to post by melatonin




Anyhoo, the please play nice part still stands.

Originally posted by melatonin

Hathaway's research involves the dynamo model. It includes taking past activity, lots of statistical analysis and assumption, and ending with a prediction.

How do you think he gets the numbers for cycle 25? They are quite exact.

These guys can barely get good predictions before a particular cycle, never mind the one after, heh. Lets see if he can do better than 40% for 24, then we'll worry about 25.

Again, your are trying to obfuscate the predictions, with the observed behaviour of the Sun's conveyor belt. The predictions are based on the observed behaviour of the Sun's conveyor belt, meaning the Sun's conveyor's belt slowing to a crawl is no "prediction", it is a fact. The last time such slow down of the Sun's conveyor belt happened was at least two centuries ago.

No matter how much you try to refute it, this slowdown of the Sun's conveyor belt is a fact. It is not based on "prediction or intuition".

I can see how someone who believes blindly in GCMs would be so confused.

Again, in an attempt to show how you are trying to obfuscate the facts here is a quote for the other members perusal.

Hathaway's prediction should not be confused with another recent forecast: A team led by physicist Mausumi Dikpata of NCAR has predicted that Cycle 24, peaking in 2011 or 2012, will be intense. Hathaway agrees: "Cycle 24 will be strong. Cycle 25 will be weak. Both of these predictions are based on the observed behavior of the conveyor belt."

science.nasa.gov...

I am certain that i explained the difference well enough the first time around, so your trying to obfuscate the issue even more, only tells me how weak your argument really is.

BTW, do not talk about "wrong predictions", because GCMs tops them all.

Originally posted by melatonin
Hathaway's prediction is in no way comparable to any of those periods. He is talking about 60-70 on the sunspot index. That's is about the same as the first cycle of the 20th century (cycle 14, I think).

Heh, we are talking about a 0.2'C drop in global temps. Brrrrrgh, chilly. Should take us back to the frozen days of the 1990s.

Hathaway's prediction says that the next Solar Cycle could be the weakest in centuries, the 1990s wasn't centuries ago last i checked.

That first, second, it is obvious your understanding of the Earth's climate is pretty much niltch, because what you obviously are trying to ignore, or are trying to hide, is the fact that with low Solar minimums it means the oceans won't be absorbing as much energy, in the form of heat, from the Sun as they normally do, and as anyone with any knowledge of Earth's climate will tell you, the oceans are the main regulators of the climate "on Earth".

Originally posted by melatonin
In your mind, maybe.

Then you move into deniers canards. You're muad'dib, and I claim my $5.

Somehow i think you "believe" this is some form of rebuttal.

First of all, once more you show your argument is weak, and you can't either accept the fact that you were wrong, or you are intentionally just trying to obfuscate this discussion. Since you are continuing to refuse to see that you are wrong, even after being shown with evidence that "you are wrong", tells me that you are intentionally trying to derail this thread.

If you can't keep up with the discussion I would advise you that you find some other topic more suitable to your knowledge, which obviously does not include Climate Change, instead of trying to derail the thread with your ad nauseum rethoric.

Originally posted by CommonSense4Eber
No matter how much you try to refute it, this slowdown of the Sun's conveyor belt is a fact. It is not based on "prediction or intuition".

It's actually inferred from a proxy. It's not a direct measurement. But I'm happy to accept that it is happening. It is no different than observing increasing CO2 by an indirect method, and doing a few calculations to model future behaviour, GCMs just use a very complex mathematical system that attempt to model the whole climate system. They are also based on observational data, that's how they get the equations.

So, they are finding a slowdown from their indirect data. How then does he come up with a sunspot number of between 60 and 70? Why not 40 and 50? 80 and 90?

On the back of an envelope?

As soon as he starts idealising the data, then extrapolating, it is not the real thing. He is modelling behaviour using mathematics/statistics.

Hathaway's prediction says that the next Solar Cycle could be the weakest in centuries, the 1990s wasn't centuries ago last i checked.

What are you on about, muad'dib?

You can make all the grand claims you like about my own understanding, but it might be best you at least you know what you are on about whilst making such claims.

If you want to say that his predicted low cycle 25 is the 'weakest in centuries', you'd need to compare to the historical data. His prediction of between 60 and 70 is comparable to cycle 14, the first of the 20th century. That is about 100 years ago. So, more like 'weakest for a century'. The prediction for cycle 25 is not comparable to the maunder minimum or the dalton.

The 1990s bit was related to where this may push temperatures down to, if the full possible 0.2'C cooling could be realised. A 0.2'C fall would take us back to 1990s temperatures.

Please pay attention.

Now we will see the hypocrisy of suggesting I am unable to accept an error, whilst you ignore your own.

[edit on 9-1-2008 by melatonin]

I also found this about the organisation and its sole member on which this thread is based:

John L. Casey appears to be a real individual with a history of creating factious fundraising organizations which only exist on paper, dummy Internet websites, mailing drops and telephone answering services. The biggest venture may have been “Casey Aerospace Corporation” a space tourist company and was seeking a capitalization of $50 million. Some of the organizations associated with this individual include the following...

linky

Originally posted by melatonin
I also found this about the organisation and its sole member on which this thread is based:

Star for the find. Though I'm not sure what a star does lol. Most important thing though. Does it make what he said untrue? Forget the messenger. Is the message correct? Would you change your opinion on Global Warming if the executives at Enron said it was real? :-)

The message is what matters. Not the messenger. And his message is based on NASA information.

I have to add his newest venture to the list of other suspect ventures. Check out the whois on spaceandscience.net

Registrant:
Space and Science Research Center
john casey
4700 Millenia Blvd. Ste 175
Orlando, Fl 32839
US
Email: ***********@spaceandscience.net

Registrar Name....: REGISTER.COM, INC.
Registrar Whois...: whois.register.com
Registrar Homepage: www.register.com

Domain Name: spaceandscience.net

Created on..............: Sat, Nov 10, 2007
Expires on..............: Thu, Jan 10, 2008
Record last updated on..: Mon, Dec 10, 2007

I masked the email address to be nice and not get his address on spam bots. For a leader in the field as his website claims his site was registered just 2 months ago. Still doesn't change the validity of his messages. I just don't I won't be sending him a dime lol.

Originally posted by Indy
The message is what matters. Not the messenger. And his message is based on NASA information.

I think the NASA info is fine, but the website this guy has gone quite a bit beyond Hathaway's studies.

So, some of what he says on his website is unsupported by the NASA-linked info. For example,

NASA says the solar cycle 25, the one after the next that starts this spring will be at 50 or lower

Hathaway's data doesn't show this at all. It's more like 65ish.

This Casey dude sounds like a right kook, he even has his own theory now. Do you really think he's done anything like real research, apart from google-based stuff? He just appears to be a NASA flea.

I smell a new thread coming on :-)

Should we start a new John Casey thread and dig up everything we can find on him? Basically building a personal and professional profile on him? I'm curious what kind of research he has done in the past. I want to find out what this guy really knows. Is he just some clown looking for 5 minutes of fame or is he someone with a decent scientific background thats just making mistakes trying to start his own organization?

This I think is what ATS is all about.

Great work, Mel and Indy. False information in the name of real science has no purpose in any of our debates. Unfortunately, con men, shysters and charlatans feel very safe on the internet. It's not the first or last time we'll be scammed, but let's hope that we always get to the truth of every source of information. Stars for both of you!



[edit on 1/9/2008 by TheAvenger]

Indy, 'muad'dib' was the name of the fre'man messiah on the planet Arakis, Taken from James Herberts book 'Dune' also turned into a Movie I might add (great movie) if you watch the old version it has Sting in it. / The newer version with Robbie Coltrane was far too long (3 Disks) and boring, loved the original, but the modern version suxored!

How to make one long movie, spread it out onto three DVD's, hardly Lord of the Rings material I doubt anyone got an oscar for that one.

The books ruled, but took a damn long time to read, I dont even remember finishing the saga, saw the movie and thought "yeap ok, thats all I need to know.

Notice for Moderator, You can call me 'Baron Harkonan' Let them mock and call House Harkonan swine, in the end their throne will be mine.

"The navigators guild will hear of this, the spice must flow!"

[edit on 9-1-2008 by Brother_Amos]

Originally posted by Brother_Amos
Indy, 'muad'dib' was the name of the fre'man messiah on the planet Arakis, Taken from James Herberts book 'Dune' also turned into a Movie I might add.

muad'dib' was also the name of a banned ATS member who had many enlightening and intelligent conversations with Melatonin.

This just warms my heart!
So happy to see so much sense in the posts!
Good find!

Quiet Sun May Trigger Global Cooling

www.foxnews.com...

[edit on 5-5-2009 by Donkey_Dean]

During such "solar minimums," as they're called, the sun dims a bit, magnetic activity is reduced and solar storms are fewer. No one knows how long each will last until it's over.
The Maunder Minimum, a period of extremely low sunspot activity from about 1645 to 1715, coincided with the coldest part of the Little Ice Age, when Dutch canals regularly froze during the winter.

This past January, the Dutch canals again froze, for the first time in 16 years.

reply to post by Donkey_Dean


From :Quiet Sun May Trigger Global Cooling

More evidence that global climate trends are sun activity related!

Originally posted by plumranch

During such "solar minimums," as they're called, the sun dims a bit, magnetic activity is reduced and solar storms are fewer. No one knows how long each will last until it's over.
The Maunder Minimum, a period of extremely low sunspot activity from about 1645 to 1715, coincided with the coldest part of the Little Ice Age, when Dutch canals regularly froze during the winter.

This past January, the Dutch canals again froze, for the first time in 16 years.

reply to post by Donkey_Dean

 

From :Quiet Sun May Trigger Global Cooling

More evidence that global climate trends are sun activity related!

About time huh? The thing about C02 is its tendency to hang low and cumulate in valleys and low spots. No one really considers it, but if you look at Denver’s C02 and follow, it flows down hill and ends up hanging out over the gulf of Mexico.

What do cooler land temps and warmer sea temps equal?

Originally posted by Burginthorn

ATM we are in the middle of the worst drought in our nations history. Added to that right now, we are smack in the middle of a VERY strange summer across the nation. Just yesterday major parts of New South Wales have been declared natural disaster areas after heavy rain and severe flooding. Right now Australia's weather is actually upside down. The northern part of the country, which is usually dry and hot this time of year is being flooded and temps are lower than normal. Down in the south of the country where temps are meant to be lower, there have been heatwave after heatwave.

Worst drought in history? pretty big call, Maybe you should say the worst drought in our recorded history.

Now I don't know which Australia you are living in, but the Northern part of Australia has it's wet season during the summer and not the winter, we had our floods in the Summer like normal, the southern states get their rain in winter and have high temperatures during summer, well at least they did when I lived in Victoria.
Pretty sure that the southern parts of Australia had their bush fires when they normally get them.

the Inigeonous people actually have 6 seasons instead of 4, so what is normal should be asked from the origional inhabitants rather than our so called climate experts.
en.wikipedia.org...

colder weather might just yield us warmer weather where we live. i live in an area where there are 13 micro-climates in a 6 mile by 7 mile area.

usually when the mainland cools, we get warmer weather as the inversion slows.
like when it rains, a lot of times it actually warms up here.

i'm slightly excited by this news.