FOIA: Report of the LSPI/NASA Workshop on Lunar Base Methodology Development

LUNAR_BASE_METHODOL OGY_DEVELOPMENT.pdf
Report of the LSPI/NASA Workshop on Lunar Base Methodology Development
Report of the LSPI/NASA Workshop on Lunar Base Methodology Development details plans for a lunar base and the potential use of computer models in designing lunar bases.
Document date: 1985-11-19
Department: Large Scale Programs Institute and NASA
Author: Stewart Nozette, Barney Roberts - Editors
Document type: report
pages: 145


Archivist's Notes: Fair to good quality document. Unclassified. Participant roster for the workshop.

INTRODUCTION:

The workshop on Lunar Base Methodology Development was convened on August 26-30, 1985 by the Large Scale Programs Institute and cosponsored by the NASA Johnson Space Center.
The purpose of the workshop was to explore the feasibility of developing a computer based methodology to analyze alternative strategies for establishing and operating a lunar base. The workshop participants represented a broad-based group of NASA experts in space transportation, space power, life support, and surface infrastructure, combined with professional operations research workers and computer programmers.
Previous studies have been limited by model dependent conclusions and have not provided alternative plans and recommendations for NASA planners. Furthermore, the large number of interdependent systems involved in an advanced program include interactions that are difficult to model.
Although the workshop was aimed at the development of lunar base development models, sufficient flexibility may be built into the models to allow for application to additional programs (e.g., a manned Mars mission), as well as the interactions of several programs. The workshop laid the groundwork for computer models which will assist in the design of a manned lunar base.
The models, herein described, will provide the following functions for the successful
conclusion of that task:

A. Strategic Planning
Models should involve identification and assessment of strategic
variables such as investment schedules, production and service
requirements with various mixes of objectives even when the latter are
not necessarily consistent with each other--e.g., minimize delays at
minimum cost and investment.
with alteration and improvement can improve the selection of optimum
strategies for lunar base program design.

B. Sensitivity Analyses
By varying the assumptions of system and subsystem performance,
the impact and relative importance of technological and operational
alternatives may be evaluated. These analyses will expose the most
effective system strategies, and will establish priorities for
technology development.

C. Impact Analyses
Variations in performance parameters and system elements may be
analyzed to determine the support requirements of specific elements.
Suitably arranged models may be used to document and communicate the
nature of the lunar base program. Such documentation should include
the current status, of course, and it should also incorporate updates
as the program develops. The models should also allow testing and
predictions with accompanying tests of sensitivity to data to identify
the degree of confidence that might be placed in the model (and the
program it represents) as well as to suggest improvements in data or
alternatives in model details.

D. Documentation
The models will establish a method to document and disseminate
information describing the current state of development of a lunar
base. This will involve documented, user friendly "executive models"
which can be run on personal computers.

SECTION 11: METHODOLOGY DEVELOPMENT: TOP LEVEL PHILOSOPHY

A. Strategic Planning Objectives

The principal objective is the development of computer based models that will enable NASA to effectively and efficiently examine the impacts of various long range options for future space missions which interact with the moon'. The desired models should be able to provide:

(1) a graphic representation of the evolution (in both time and space) of advanced space missions that may interact
(2) investment, cost, and schedule estimates for developing lunar bases,
(3) identify and highlight performance parameters against which a set of possible program goals can be compared. Such models should also provide quantitative evaluation of tradeoff possibilities so that it will be easy to analyze the effect of:

(1) alternative space missions,
(2) alternative lunar base objectives,
(3) alternative technologies,
(4) alternative elements or subsystems, and other factors such as learning, alternate priorities, and possible contacts with other programs--including international cooperation. The results of these analyses can then be used to develop long range plans for NASA.
Near term impacts can be determined for space station, orbit transfer vehicle, and earth-to-orbit delivery vehicles.
Recommendations may be developed for prioritization of technology developments. To accomplish all of this, a practical general purpose tool for NASA will also advance the state of the art in both modeling and in strategic planning. Hence, components of the models and techniques developed will have application to other large scale program planning activities in NASA and elsewhere.
(1) a graphic representation of the evolution (in both time Model development and implementation will probably need to go through several stages. A first stage will consist of defining the problem in adequate detail and initiating the assembly of data in conjunction with the NASA staff. A second stage will consist of analytical formulations accompanied by small numerical prototypes. This will permit testing and evaluation in a manner readily understood not only by the modelers but also by the planners and decisionmakers.
The development of a full-scale model should be undertaken at the next stage.
If substantial communication and review is incorporated into the process, implementation and placement will follow the modeling activity in a natural and easy manner. If this is not done in an adequate manner, there is likely to be a great deal of frustration and possible failure of the modeling effort.
B. Upper Level Model Description: General Characteristics.
The inputs to the models will be key specific objectives of the lunar base program as well as lunar base elemental structure with parameters.
The models are composed of a set of relations and functions that describe the interrelationships of each lunar base element with every other lunar base element. When solutions are found which satisfy the input objectives, cost and schedules are determined and a set of evaluation parameters are derived.
C. Matrix Interrelationships:
Each cell contains three sets of functional relationships. The first set is a collection of optional functions that relate the row element to the column element. Therecan be several functions....

Here are some Highlights:

PDF page18:
MODEL USERS, FEATURES, DESCRIPTIONS, COMPUTER IMPLEMENTATION AND MANAGEMENT
The following section describes
( A ) the potential user community of the proposed modeling system,
(B) the user interface and model features as seen by the various sections of that community, (C) model descriptions,
(D)system implementation, and (E) model management.

PDF page 22:
Inputs. System objectives must ultimately be expressed in specific numerical terms, e.g., as tons of Lunar LOX to be delivered to LEO per year. These may be input directly by the user, or may be derived from various "markets" which the system is serving, e.g., LEO servicing, LEO space station, SDI, Mars Missions, etc. System configuration or structure is a complete specification of what system elements are included in a particular study and the type of each element. System elements include the surface infrastructure, Earth launch systems, lunar launch systems, and OTV systems.

PDF page 23:
Outputs. System operation variables include power consumption,
LLOX production, person and cargo trips/year of various vehicle types, etc. System performance variables are either a subset of system operation variables or are easily derived from them. An example is metric tons of lunar oxygen delivered to LEO, mass payback ratios, etc. Costs include transport costs, system lifetime cost, emplacement costs, etc.

PDF page 30:
SECTION IV: PLAN FOR FUTURE ACTION
A. Implementing the Modeling Process Building on the results of the Workshop on Lunar Base Methodology Development, a Lunar Base Modeling Working Group is to be formed to focus technical and strategic or programmatic models toward an overall planning model for Lunar Base development. This working group will assess the feasibility of modeling that will allow integrated lunar base planning and strategic analyses. Models should incorporate technical and programmatic (cost and schedule) modules that describe the parameters and interrelationships among transportation, base habitat, science, manufacturing, power, etc. Sensitivities to technology levels and definition uncertainties can be determined and the results can provide a focus for future studies planning and technology investment strategies.

PDF page 35:
The purpose of this section of the report is to identify, within
the limitations of the talent and time available:
( 1 ) The elements and sub-elements of a lunar base program;
most frequently an identifiable, discrete hardware end-item.
( 2 ) The quantifiable requirements for each sub-element which
must be specified to the designer of each sub-element before beginning the concept selection and design process. Examples of such requirements are payload , range, reliability and life.
( 3 ) The attributes of the element or sub-element which
provide both a physical description of the end-item and the needs
which must be supplied from outside the element in order for it to fulfill its function and meet its requirements. Examples would be the mass, volume, unit cost, and fuel consumption rate of an internal combustion engine. The fuel consumption attribute of the engine, once defined, would become a part of the requirements for the fuel supply and distribution element.
( 4 ) The transform relationships which may be used in the
modeling process for deriving first order estimates of new attribute values in response to new requirement values. An example of an attribute is the specific mass of a storage battery, expressed in the units of Kg/Watt Hour.

PDF page 36:
ORGANIZATION
The essence of the completed lunar base model will be the
mathematical relationships linking the "requirements" to the
"attributes" of the lunar base "elements" which are required to
achieve a specified set of goals. Eleven candidate lunar base
elements were defined early in the workshop to provide a starting
point for development of such relationships. Regrouping and
redefinition of these elements will be a natural outcome of further effort on the lunar base model development project.

PDF page 40:
INITIAL UTILIZATION
Initially, a normalization of the level-of-detail of the sub-element descriptions, requirements and attributes will be necessary.
Completion of the definition of the transform algorithms will also be necessary. Much of the data on nominal estimated transform algorithms will be missing and little or no data on the necessary minimum and maximum expected values will be present.

PDF page 41:
MODEL GROWTH AND EXPANSION
Initial models will attempt only to provide a "snapshot" of the
lunar base at it will exist at a single moment of its life cycle.
The real lunar base will, of course, require multi-year activities to establish first a transient fasthold, then a facility which can support life over an extended interval and, eventually a human community which approaches self-sufficiency and produces goods and services for export.

PDF page 45:
POWER SYSTEM ALTERNATIVES MODELING
FOR THE
LUNAR BASE SUPPORTING ELEMENTS

The power system alternatives considered for application to these
elements are:
1. Solar Photovoltaic Power Systems with Regenerative Fuel Cells
for storage.
2. Solar Thermal Dynamic Power Systems (cycle unspecified).
3. Nuclear Reactor Power (Energy Conversion System TBD).
4. Isotope Power Systems - Dynamic and Passive.
5 . Regenerative fuel cells for Lunar Surface Transportation.
6 . Batteries Fuel Cells for Launch Vehicle and Lunar Transit
Vehicle Power.
7 . Isotope Power for Recoverable Earth-to-LEO Launch Vehicles.

PDF page 105:
EXAMPLE ESTIMATE OF LUNAR OXYGEN PRODUCTION PLANT MASS
ELECTROLYSIS OF MOLTEN SLAG: A crude mass estimate for a plant to
electrolyze molten slags derived from lunar minerals can be made as follows :
Oxygen production via slag electrolysis proceeds as follows.
Regolith is mined, and a specific feedstock (e.g., ilmenite) is
concentrated by beneficiation. The feed material (minus tailings) is slowly introduced into the electrolysis cell where it dissolves in the liquid slag. The slag flows through the electrolysis cell and is discharged after sufficient amount of electrolysis. The Ferrotitanium product is also discharged periodically. Hot oxygen is cooled and sent to a liquefier for condensation and storage.