08 Forecast: 7 hurricanes, 3 major

per CNN:

www.cnn.com...

Now, weathermen can't even predict what the weather will be like in a week, how is this anything more than a hunch to stir up fear?

""Despite fairly inactive 2006 and 2007 hurricane seasons, we believe that the Atlantic basin is still in an active hurricane cycle," Gray said. "This active cycle is expected to continue at least for another decade or two.""


Seems like he is saying, "well.... since we were wrong for the last two years, the odds are even better that we will be right this year. If we keep saying this every year, eventually we will be correct and we will look like geniuses!"

Well, as the article says, Gray and his dudes at Colorado have been pretty good over the last 9 years (7/9 generally correct).

Why do you think he would be ramping up the fear factor, rather than just using knowledge and experience to make a prediction?

reply to post by melatonin

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I guess the fear angle would be mainly for sensational media, since it is so popular. But again, this to me is like predicting cloudy with a chance of rain for the northwest. You are most likely going to be correct. And if you say it enough, you will eventually be.

I just fail to see how this should be front page CNN.

[edit on 7-12-2007 by Karlhungis]

About 10 years ago many insurance companies dropped coverage in the area where I live and did business. They used the excuse that it had been 100 years since we had had a serious hurricane. They figured we were due a severe hurricane anytime. Of course the rates went sky high for the coverage we could find.

Me, being a bit crazy, always looked forward to storm season. I have the wood ready in my garage to board up the windows if and when a good blow is predicted.

A few seasons ago we had three very close calls. It was enough for us to board up and stock up on hurricane food and supplies. I kept the windows boarded up for several weeks.

For the past two years we were told to expect "The Big One". Never happened.

As a matter of fact, the powers that be in weather reporting changed their forecast in the middle of the season. Still didn't come close to right.

Normal weather forecasting is easy. Forecasting hurricanes is all together a different game.

St. Simons, Jekyll, and Sea Island are among several islands where I have my winter home. No one pays any attention to the hurricane forecast here. We watch the weather patterns and radar. Forecasting hurricanes is all the luck of the draw.

I do miss the close calls we used to get. Storms energize me.
But I like living on the edge anyway.

It only takes ONE hurricane to cause a major disaster. Cyclically we are in a period for higher activity, but doesn't mean every year has to be a record breaker. We went years in Florida without too much concern after Andrew then came the years of Ivan, Fran, Jeanne, Katrina and Wilma.

I prefer to wait till the season starts before taking predictions seriously.. soon we'll hear about a la nina or an el nino that will affect next year hurricane season..

non the less, it's important to keep hurricane awareness going.

reply to post by worldwatcher

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Keeping awareness going is one thing. Predicting doom every year is another. Seems like it could lead to the "chicken little" scenario.


dizziedame:

I am a big fan of storms as well. When I lived in Japan we had the eye of a hurricane *typhoon, pass right over us. It was amazing. I hate the damage and loss of life, but major storms are amazing.