Interesting New Poll, page 1

I got this in an e-mail.

DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY IS THREE-MAN RACE
WITH HIGH UNDECIDED VOTE IN ARIZONA

A new KAET-ASU Poll shows a three-man race for the upcoming
Democratic Presidential primary in Arizona. The statewide poll of 455
registered Democrats "with a high probability of voting*," conducted
by KAET-TV/Channel 8 and the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and
Mass Communication at Arizona State University January 24-25,2004,
found three candidates, Wesley Clark, John Kerry and Howard Dean,
have a chance to win the Arizona Democratic primary. Among those
having decided who they will vote for, Clark receives 15%, Kerry 10%,
Dean 9%, Edwards 4%, Lieberman 3%, Kucinich 1% and Sharpton 1%. Other
candidates received a combined 3% and 54% were undecided. * (A high
probably of voting is defined as registered democrats who voted in at
least three of the last four elections they were eligible to vote
in.)

When Democrats who were "leaning" toward one of the candidates were
added to those who have made up their minds, Clark got 22% of the
vote, Kerry 21%, Dean 14%, Edwards 7%, Lieberman 3%, Kucinich 1%,
Sharpton 1% and others 2%; 29% remained undecided.

The poll also asked people why they were voting for the candidate of
their choice. Democrats will vote for Clark primarily because he
comes across as a leader (31%), his military experience (20%), the
issues he emphasizes (16%) and his electability (15%). Dean
supporters like him because of the positions he takes on issues
(38%), because of the way he presents himself (23%) and because of
his position on Iraq (14%). He also is seen as electable (10%) and
honest (10%). Kerry appears to have the widest basis of support but
mainly appeals on the basis of his issue positions (25%), his
leadership qualities (24%) and his position on the war in Iraq (16%).
Edwards gets support primarily because he is seen as a young, fresh
candidate (31%) and because he his issues appeal to the more
conservative voters (47%).

Because electability is a key issue, the poll looked at which
candidates were being supported on the basis of their ability to
defeat President George W. Bush. Thirty-eight percent (38%) of those
who said electability was a reason for their vote chose Clark and 38%
chose Kerry. Fifteen percent (15%) were voting for Dean, 5% for
Edwards and 4% for Lieberman.

When asked about the likelihood that they could change their vote
before election day, Dean's supporters appear to be the most solid.
Ninety-four percent (94%) said they will definitely stay with Dean.
Seventy-eight percent (78%) of Clark's supporters and 77% of those
supporting Kerry said their vote would not change.

Demographic profiles showed Clark does particularly well with male
voters (28%), residents of Maricopa county (27%), Democrats who only
occasionally go to church services (26%) and college-educated voters
(24%).

Kerry's support comes largely from self-identified political liberals
(23%), from voters over 60 years of age (23%), Pima County voters
(21%) and Democrats with college educations (21%).

Dean gets most of his support from Democrats living in rural areas
(17%), self- identified liberals (16%), college-educated voters (16%)
and voters who rarely or never attend church services (16%).

The poll also found that 10% of likely Democratic primary voters say
they will definitely or probably vote for Bush this November. Thirty-
one percent (31%) say they approve of the job Bush is doing regarding
the war on terrorism, 22% approve of his decision to use military
force in Iraq and 11% agree with the way he is handling the economy.

According to poll director Dr. Bruce Merrill, "As of this last
weekend, the Democratic primary is a contest between three
candidates - Clark, Kerry and Dean. It is important to keep in mind
while interpreting these poll results that there is still a high
undecided vote and that the poll was taken before results of the New
Hampshire primary were known. Because of the extensive media coverage
of both the Iowa and New Hampshire votes, there is tremendous
volatility in support for the various candidates. General Clark's
support is based on the fact that he has done more political
advertising than the other candidates and there are a large number of
veterans in Arizona. If, however, he does not do well in New
Hampshire, his support will drop in Arizona. If Dean does better than
expected, his support in Arizona will firm up. Kerry must meet the
expectations of having won in Iowa. Clearly the Arizona primary is
shaping up to be the "make-or-break" election for the top four
candidates. Whoever wins Arizona is likely to be a heavy favorite to
gain the Democratic nomination for president this summer."

The statewide poll of 455 Democratic voters with a high probability
of voting has a sampling error of plus or minus 4.6%. Fifty-two
percent (52%) of those interviewed were female, 48% male. Fifty-eight
percent (58%) of the interviews were conducted in Maricopa County,
17% in Pima County, and 25% in the less populated counties.

Q1: The Democratic presidential primary will be held here in Arizona
in two weeks. Among the candidates who will be on the ballot are
Wesley Clark, Howard Dean, John Edwards, John Kerry, Dennis Kucinich,
Joe Lieberman and Al Sharpton. Have you decided who you are going to
vote for in the Democratic primary election? Clark 15% Lieberman 3
Kerry 10 Kucinich 1
Dean 9 Sharpton 1
Edwards 4 Other candidate 3
undecided 54
100%

2. Are you leaning toward supporting one of the candidates? IF YES,
which candidate? (results below are combined decided and leaning)
Clark 22% Lieberman 3
Kerry 21 Other candidate 2
Dean 14 Kucinich 1
Edwards 7 Sharpton 1
undecided 29
100%

3. IF DEFINITELY VOTING FOR OR LEANING TOWARDS ASK, Why are you going
to vote for (CANDIDATE SELECTED) rather than one of the other
candidates? BE SPECIFIC Clark Dean Kerry Edwards
Appearance/leader/best candidate 31% 23% 24% 31%
Military experience 20 0 11 0
Issues or platform 16 38 25 47
Most electable 15 10 16 6
Honest man 9 10 5 10
Position on Iraq 5 14 16 3
Political experience 4 5 10 3
100% 100% 100% 100%

4. Do you think you will definitely vote for (CANDIDATE SELECTED)
or.are you still considering another candidate? definitely support
still considering total
Dean 94% 6 100%
Clark 78% 22 100%
Kerry 77% 23 100%

5. ASK EVERYONE: In this November's general election, will you 1.
definitely vote to give George Bush another four years in office, 3%
2. probably vote for him, 7
3. probably not vote for him or 7
4. definitely not vote for him? 76
5. dk/undecided 7
100%

6. Do you agree or disagree with the decision to use military force
in Iraq? 1. agree 22%
2. disagree 72
3. undecided 6
100%

7. I would like to know if overall you 1. approve or 11%
2. disapprove of the way President Bush is handling the U.S. economy?
79
3. d.k./n.o. 10
100%

8. Overall do you 1. approve or 31%
2. disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the threat of
terrorism against the United States? 58
3. d.k./n.o 11
100%