PREDICTION: Despite coming in second overall in the US for number of popular votes in the democratic nomination, Dean will NOT finish in the top three contenders by state wins.

This is less of a prediction than observation of current data trending. Many factors, such as early race withdrawls could impact results significantly, though not how you might think.

Without a doubt (short of a photo op with Donna Rice on the good ship "Monkey Business") Kerry will finish the race as the top Democratic nominee, meaning he will win the most states currently estimated at between 40 to 43 states.

Those states not won by Kerry will be:

Edwards (2nd) ~ North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama (and possibly Louisiana and Kentucky)

Clark (3rd) ~ Arkansas and Oklahoma (and possibly Tennessee)

Dean ~ Vermont

This analysis assumes Clark and Lieberman stay in the race for the long haul. However, an early withdrawl by Lieberman is sure to help Clark more than Dean. Furthermore, an early withdrawl by Clark will definitely help Edwards, especially in the South.

So it appears that the only way Dean can even come in THIRD in the race (even getting the second most votes overall) is by default... if others drop out.

Therefore, the "NATIONAL CAMPAIGN" Dean brags about, which does not specifically target key states is evidently a good strategy to come in second in alot of states while losing 98% of them. For a complete list of states Dean will lose, see his I have a scream speech.

Disagreement welcome.

By the way, I hope I'm dead wrong but afraid trends die hard. I HOPE Dean puts up a good fight winning approximately half of the NorthEast and West Coast liberal vote from Kerry, AND Clark drops out early leaving the South to Edwards with a strong chance of an endorsement from Gephardt leading to a midwest sweep by the southern gent. Like I said, I hope i'm wrong, but...

[Edited on 27-1-2004 by RANT]

Those are some good points and while i have the utmost respect for you i think your being too general.

Those are all states the candidates have an enormous chance of winning, Edwards has the south, because he's the southerner from the carolina's (i can never remember which) and Clark is Mr Arkansas.

I wouldn't run Dean down too much, he's a good candidate with a 50state plan, i still stand by him.

I honestly have no idea who i want now, i'm still for Dean as national, but Kerry has the best chance of buttraping bush in November.

Nice try though

*turns round and looks at you crazily, raises his arm in the air and screams a howard dean YAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAACH!*

Originally posted by Nerdling
I wouldn't run Dean down too much, he's a good candidate with a 50state plan, i still stand by him.

Like I added, I HOPE Dean puts up a good fight and bloodies Kerry in some key areas. But that's my hope for Edwards benefit. I may run Dean down (from a "versus Bush" perspective) but I actually like the guy more than Kerry. I like them all more than Kerry really, despite liking all Kerry has to say objectively. Hard to say why. I think it's because it's a no brainer Dukakis/Kennedy style campaign Bush will run against Kerry. One I've seen before.

Originally posted by RANT
PREDICTION:

Those states not won by Kerry will be:

Edwards (2nd) ~ North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama (and possibly Louisiana and Kentucky)

Clark (3rd) ~ Arkansas and Oklahoma (and possibly Tennessee)

Dean ~ Vermont

Therefore, the "NATIONAL CAMPAIGN" Dean brags about, which does not specifically target key states is evidently a good strategy to come in second in alot of states while losing 98% of them. For a complete list of states Dean will lose, see his I have a scream speech.

Well, was I right, or was I right? So far, Edwards = SC, Clark = OK, and Dean = NADA. Stay tuned!