posted on Jan, 27 2004 @ 09:34 AM
PREDICTION: Despite coming in second overall in the US for number of popular votes in the democratic nomination, Dean will NOT finish in the top
three contenders by state wins.
This is less of a prediction than observation of current data trending. Many factors, such as early race withdrawls could impact results
significantly, though not how you might think.
Without a doubt (short of a photo op with Donna Rice on the good ship "Monkey Business") Kerry will finish the race as the top Democratic nominee,
meaning he will win the most states currently estimated at between 40 to 43 states.
Those states not won by Kerry will be:
~ North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama (and possibly Louisiana and Kentucky)
~ Arkansas and Oklahoma (and possibly Tennessee)
This analysis assumes Clark and Lieberman stay in the race for the long haul. However, an early withdrawl by Lieberman is sure to help Clark more than
Dean. Furthermore, an early withdrawl by Clark will definitely help Edwards, especially in the South.
So it appears that the only way Dean can even come in THIRD in the race (even getting the second most votes overall) is by default... if others drop
Therefore, the "NATIONAL CAMPAIGN" Dean brags about, which does not specifically target key states is evidently a good strategy to come in second
in alot of states while losing 98% of them.
For a complete list of states Dean will lose, see his I have a scream
By the way, I hope I'm dead wrong but afraid trends die hard. I HOPE Dean puts up a good fight winning approximately half of the NorthEast
and West Coast liberal vote from Kerry, AND Clark drops out early leaving the South to Edwards with a strong chance of an endorsement
from Gephardt leading to a midwest sweep by the southern gent. Like I said, I hope i'm wrong, but...
[Edited on 27-1-2004 by RANT]