Other then Taiwan what could be the trigger for a war between the US and China ?

Other then Taiwan I cant think of many reasons why China would go to war with the USA.
The first reason I can think of would be a land grab.
Despite China developing the means of feeding its massive population the leaders of China decide to lanuch a military offensive against South East/West Asia.
I cant see this happening mind you I didnt think that Kim would test a nuke either.

The second reason is trade.
For some reason if the US government was to ban chinese imports the chinese government may choose military action as a last desperate act in order to force the US governments hand. Im not sure How China would fight this conflict.

Any thoughts?

Well, supposedly China warned Washington that if the Straits of Hormuz got shut down in the Persian Gulf, either by Iran or the US, that they would intercede. And most likely this is due to the flow of oil into China, of which a percentage comes through the Persian Gulf, is my understanding. But there are many more qualified here to talk about this than me, and maybe they can elaborate.

Since Iran has threatened to shut this strait down if attacked, even by limited missile strikes from the US, then that could ignite a limited conflict. But that could turn out to be very messy. China may instead choose to fight any such conflict by proxy, and help supply Iran with more sophisticated missiles and such.

Another possibility would indeed be strikes on North Korea, but at this point, I just don't see that happening. Even with the limited nuclear capability that NK apparently has, attacking them would be extremely risky- not so much for the US, but for the surrounding countries like SK, or even Japan.

Of course Taiwan would potentially be an issue, but that's not the only other instance that might incite a US-China conflict. With China's ever increasing presence in South America, it's not too hard to imagine Chavez doing something really stupid, and then China becoming involved in the resulting chaos.

And then there is the other issue of the supposed Chinese warning to the US that any attempt to reclaim property in the US controlled or owned by the Chinese would be met with serious consequences.

Also, China is a communist country, and despite the superficial friendliness and economic ties to the Western world, they know that at the core, non-communist countries stand diametrically opposed on many many issues such as human rights, free speech, etc. I don't believe for a minute that they would pass up a key opportunity to make a move, when their strategists sense that the time is right, and the gains are worth a lot more than the losses. Just resently a Chinese general proclaimed that "one inch of land is worth thousands of lives to us," or something close to that effect.

There are many ways a war could happen with China, directly or indirectly, and maybe even with China starting it. All this talk about the US being China's number one customer being a show stopper only goes so far with me. If push came to shove, it could happen, and ultimately, probably will as China's population and energy needs push them beyond the limits of their borders.

[edit on 31-10-2006 by TrueAmerican]

What if Wal-Mart Hired Blackwater to take over China? Would That bring the US into the War? On Whose side?

posted by TrueAmerican

China warned Washington if the Straits of Hormuz got shut down either by Iran or the US, they would intercede. most likely this is due to the flow of oil into China which a percentage comes through the Persian Gulf, China may choose to fight by proxy, and supply Iran with more sophisticated missiles.
[Edited by Don W]

I don’t know the numbers. I do know China produces some oil, but like the US, it also imports most of its daily requirements. China has made a long term buy from Iran for petroleum and from one of the -stans for natural gas. But that’s in the future. The “threat” to Iran will pass January 20, 2009. If there is no “war” by then, there won’t be another war in our lifetimes.

Another possibility would be [US] strikes on North Korea, but at this point, I don't see that happening . . the limited nuclear capability that NK has . . attacking them would be extremely risky - not so much for the US, but for the surrounding countries like SK, or even Japan.

It fascinates - and alarms - me how causally we speak of attacking first this county - Iran - then that country - NK - and engaging in a war with China. Is there any other place in the world where this kind of (serious) "war" conversation is carried on? If you’re not Sam Walton Jr why do you give a dam what goes on in China? And sure to God NK poses no threat to the US nor does Iran except as we have caused by destroying Iraq as a counter veiling force to Iran. What’s up here? We are the most religious country in the West. Does that count for naught? Or do we think we are the Army of God?

Taiwan would be an issue, but that's not the only other instance that might incite a US - China conflict.

China has made no bones about it, Taiwan will be re-connected to the PRC probably much sooner than much later. It will be up to us then whether we want to trade San Francisco for Shanghai. They will move, the trade will be our choice to make.

China's ever increasing presence in South America . . it's not hard to imagine Chavez doing something really stupid and then China becoming involved in the resulting chaos . . “

I heard a joke the other day, at a meeting of the OAS, amongst Spanish speaking people, one man asked, Q. Why are there no coup d’etat in America? The other fellow answered, “I don’t know.” A. There are no American embassies in Washington.

President Allende did not shoot Nixon. President Guzman did not shoot Eisenhower. The Diem brothers did not shoot Kennedy. So why do you say Chavez will do “something really stupid?” historically speaking, is it not far more likely the CIA will do “something really stupid?”

China is a communist country, and they know at the core, non-communist countries stand diametrically opposed on many many issues such as human rights, free speech, etc. recently a Chinese general proclaimed that "one inch of land is worth thousands of lives to us," or something close to that effect.

We are very selective about whose rights we will fight die kill for. Not in Darfur, not in South Lebanon, not in Gaza. How about Granada? Or how about Panama? Can anyone derive a rule out of all this that confuses me so much? Help me.

There are many ways a war could happen with China, this talk about the US being China's number one customer being a show stopper only goes so far . . If push came to shove, it could happen, and ultimately, probably will as China's population and energy needs push them beyond the limits of their borders.

Isn’t that more like the pot calling the kettle black? We have absolutely no reason to go to war with China. And I wish we’d stop talking about war all the time and maybe talk about peace some?

Thanks T/A, for your honest POV.


[edit on 10/31/2006 by donwhite]

Originally posted by donwhite
It fascinates - and alarms - me how causally we speak of attacking first this county - Iran - then that country - NK - and engaging in a war with China. Is there any other place in the world where this kind of (serious) kind of conversation is carried on?

Sure there is: at every miltary planning table in world, just about. Hope for the best, but prepare for the worst.

If you’re not Sam Walton Jr why do you give a dam what goes on in China?

Now come on, Don, surely you can answer that question for yourself. If no one cared what went on in any other country, then why did they invent spy planes and reconaissance aircraft- and further, use them all the time? It is not realistic in this world with IBM's all over the place to NOT know what goes on in other countries. Our very existense may depend on that knowledge.

And sure to God NK poses no threat to the US...

They pose both a direct threat with their long range missiles (either now, debatable, or in the future, arguably) and indirect threat through unscrupulous proliferation to terrorists. If they weren't any threat, they why do you suppose all the White House, UN and media attention over the past several years? At at a very minimum, they are a direct threat to our allies such as SK and Japan. Worse than a direct threat, actually, as technically NK and SK are still at war, have skirmishes from time to time, and reside one of the most heavily militarized zones on the planet.

...So why do you say Chavez will do “something really stupid?” historically speaking, is it not far more likely the CIA will do “something really stupid?”

Cause the CIA's run out of stupid things TO do. But that's a good point. Still, with the recent Chavez vitriol towards Bush at the UN meeting, it is no secret that he will do whatever he can at this point to undermine this administration. Who knows, he might decide to cut oil exports to the US completely, allow Chinese nuclear missiles on his territory (although I believe the Chinese themselves refused to do that), or something nutzoid like that which would piss off the Bush administration to the point of considering an attack on Venezuela and opening a whole new can of worms.

A. We are very selective about whose rights we will fight say die for. Not in Darfur, not in South Lebanon, not in Gaza. How about Granada? Or how about Panama? Can anyone derive a rule out of all this that confuses me so much? Help me.

Good luck getting help on that one. With this administration there aren't any rules, and those that there are do not seem to apply or are thwarted or overlegislated somehow.

Isn’t that more like the pot calling the kettle black? We have absolutely no reason to go to war with China. And I wish we’d stop talking about war all the time and maybe talk about peace some?

Well I would assume that this would be more directed at xpert11, who started the thread. He's asking for more reasons why China would go to war with the US, not the other way around, although does it really matter? Any way you slice it, it would not be pretty.

posted by TrueAmerican

“ . . at every miltary planning table in world, just about. Hope for the best, but prepare for the worst . . come on, Don, if no one cared what went on in other country, why invent spy planes and reconnaissance aircraft and use them? It is not realistic in this world with IBM's all over the place to NOT know what goes on in other countries. Our very existense may depend on that knowledge. [Edited by Don W]

OK, I jumped the gun. Hmm? Is that a good metaphor? Sure, you are right about contingency planning. Like we have a plan for Canada attacking at Detroit, Mexico at El Paso, and etc. I had more in mind the fact we fellow posters talk so nonchalant about war, attacking one country after another and so on. It is easy for any administration - Dem or GOP - to exploit our predisposition to war as the only or best solution. I’d like to see us propose again the “Open Skies” plan Ike offered Kruschev. Let’s make it legal!

They [NK] pose a direct threat with their long range missiles (either now, debatable, or in the future, arguably) . .

Come on now. Florida - where I live - has a $70 b. annual state budget. That is more that 2X the GDP of NK. They “fired” or tested 6-7 missiles mainly to jerk Bush43's chain. That’s easy. All the missile shots were flops. NK does not even qualify as a “paper tiger” in my view. We are doing to NK what we did to the USSR, make them into a fomidable enemy when they needed 12 days to ride the Trans Siberian RR to Vladivostok from Moscow.

“ . . and indirect threat through unscrupulous proliferation to terrorists.

Hmm? I can’t say “yes” and I can’t say “no” but I can ask “why not already?” NK is playing poker with the US. We can end this dangerous game anytime we want to by re-instating the 1994-1999 Carter Agreement. IF and I do say IF, NK sold a nuke to OBL, it would be on Bush43's shoulders!

If they were no threat, they why do you suppose all the White House, UN and media attention over the past several years? At at a very minimum, they are a direct threat to our allies such as SK . . “

Two words. Hyperbole. Diversion. It seems to be business as usual in Seoul. Would they not be more concerned that the US? South Korea probably has a contingency plan in place. What I don’t understand is why the SK do not go ahead with the Carter Agreement. SK could easily afford the outlay. Easily. That is the mystery to me.

“ . . with the recent Chavez vitriol towards Bush at the UN meeting, it is no secret he will do what he can to undermine this administration. Who knows, he might decide to cut oil exports to the US completely, or something nutzoid like that . . piss off Bush to the point of an attack on Venezuela and opening a whole new can of worms.

In May, 2003, I would have been more likely to agree. Post “Mission Accomplished,” it is obvious to the world the US can handle only one medium size and one small size skirmish at a time. Venezuelan oil is the best source of revenue Chavez has so he will not risk a calamitous market for a little personal vendetta. After all, Chavez is not alone in the governance of Venezuela. Something our reliance on 20 second tv blobs that pass for news tends to create here, to our disadvantage.

Well I would assume that this would be more directed at xpert11, who started the thread. He's asking for reasons why China would go to war with the US, not the other way around, although does it really matter? Any way you slice it, it would not be pretty.

And on that dour note, I agree and close. Thx T/A, for good post.


[edit on 11/1/2006 by donwhite]

Eventually it will come down to resources of some sort, if it becomes a full out armed conflict.

The most probable ones being oil in the Middle East or access to trade. China will not raise a fuss over Iran as it has not built up it's armed forces enough to project power in anyway to matter over Iran. Eventually, China will have that ability and that is when it may come to open conflict. Till then China needs to play it safe while the economic development of China continues.

Realisticly, none that I can think of. And really what could we do if Chuina really wanted Tiawan back? I know we can beat China militarily but China can get to Tiawan and overtake it before we can get a carrier there.

As for China coming into play if IRAN shuts the oil down, what would China do? We didnt shut it down so what would they be able to do to us but ask us to talk nicely to Iran so they'll reopen the straits back up? Would they maybe go against Iran and FORCE them to reopen them up?