Why are Democrats leading in the polls?

If you listen to the news, you get a feeling that if the elections were held today, the Democrats would win control of both the House and the Senate. They are opening up double digit leads in the polls, and they seem to have momentum on their side.

Now, I am aware that polls can be very misleading. But the Democrats seem to be beating the Republicans at their own game. Why is this?

Could it be that Rove's demotion has hurt them more than they anticipated?

Is the country so fed up with the war that they feel the only way out is for the Dem's to take control?

Is it too late for another "October Surprise" to turn the tide in favor of the Rep's?

Other reasons?

Originally posted by jsobecky
But the Democrats seem to be beating the Republicans at their own game. Why is this?

Iraq.


Its as simple as that. People have simply come to hate the iraq war, and everything associated with it. If there was no iraq war, there wouldn't be this phenomenon right now.

There are other issues feeding into it, but Iraq is the driving force here.

[edit on 27-10-2006 by Nygdan]

Yep, Iraq. Afghanistan is getting worse too. People are also pretty annoyed with the corruption in high places too, though I don't think they are much more optimistic about the Dems, but a change is better than nothing I guess.

Becky,

Could it simply be that the Dems are better and finally the message is getting through?

I found the tone of your post exceptionally condescending.

It was of the nature that everything being equal the Dems would not have a shot.

The Republicans are being found out. Long on rhetoric and venom but short on constructive policies for the good of the US.

Cheers

S396

Although Iraq is one of the biggest issues sparking discussion, I think discussion itself is what's killing the Republicans. The Democrats have done an outstanding job of creating an atmosphere of an impending house-cleaning on capitol hill, and that's stimulated a generally apathetic population into talking.

Even still, they are only talking. I did a quick sample of voter registration in two blue states, NJ and CA, and found that there's actually been a percentage decrease in registration since 2002. I think what we're going to see yet again is that the Democrats can enjoy an overwhelming advantage in visible support and still lose because several of their demographic constituencies are statistically less likely to vote.

Things are bad for the Republicans right now, but not as bad as they sound, because what's making things look so bad is the vocal nature of the Democratic base. Republicans don't blog or march or damn the opposition at the watercooler quite as effectively as Democrats do, they just show up at the polls and put their people in power then whistle innocently when everyone's asking how we got such a bad government.

The Democrats have got 4 seats in the bag in the senate, 5 with a little luck, but I don't think they can win Tennessee at the ballot box. They'll win Tennessee in the media in the year after the election by pressing Bob Corker on the Chattanooga real estate scandal until he has to resign.

The Republicans were lucky to hold the House as long as they did. They should never have gotten so attached to it. It can't be saved. Urbanites enjoy the benefits of government spending more than citizens in rural communities, thus urban populations will back spenders. We're an urbanized population. End of story.

Hmmm, do I choose the blue one or the red one? They both taste pretty similar. The real question that is not being asked in the media is wtf happened to democracy. Saying that, Bush was and is a disaster. I wish Gore had got the presidency he won. We might be driving the electric car by now.

I think it's a matter of getting the "checks and balances" back into place.

Originally posted by Sandman396
Becky,

First of all, the userid is jsobecky, thank you.

Could it simply be that the Dems are better and finally the message is getting through?

Highly unlikely, since they don't offer any other solutions except to bash Bush.

I found the tone of your post exceptionally condescending.

It was of the nature that everything being equal the Dems would not have a shot.

All things have been equal for some time now. The Dem's have routinely had their hats handed to them for years. I think the other posters have a better feel for what the real reasons are.

If you find that condescending, then I can't help you.

Originally posted by The Vagabond
Although Iraq is one of the biggest issues sparking discussion, I think discussion itself is what's killing the Republicans. The Democrats have done an outstanding job of creating an atmosphere of an impending house-cleaning on capitol hill, and that's stimulated a generally apathetic population into talking.

Expand on that a bit.. what are they talking about? It's not that I disagree with you, I'd just like to know what issues are being discussed.

Imo, the polls have reflected the disgust that the Republican base has with the crew currently in office. It has been reflected in a threat to stay home on Nov. 7. The Democrats are capitalizing on this sentiment, and rallying their base.

I think what we're going to see yet again is that the Democrats can enjoy an overwhelming advantage in visible support and still lose because several of their demographic constituencies are statistically less likely to vote.

Nowhere was this more visibly illustrated than in the 2004 presidential race. The young vote never materialized, even though they were constantly wooed by celebrities and MTV and the like. Had they shown up, the Dem's would have won, imo.

Another voting block the Rep's are losing are the "soccer moms". They are dissatisfied with the economy and the way it is being run. The DOW hits new record highs, but that isn't translating into fatter paychecks for them.

Urbanites enjoy the benefits of government spending more than citizens in rural communities, thus urban populations will back spenders. We're an urbanized population. End of story.

True. Gov't spending on infrastructure such as roads translates into paychecks.

Originally posted by jsobecky

Originally posted by The Vagabond
Although Iraq is one of the biggest issues sparking discussion, I think discussion itself is what's killing the Republicans.

Expand on that a bit.. what are they talking about? It's not that I disagree with you, I'd just like to know what issues are being discussed.

Let me preface this with an understanding that I'm not the demographic at stake in this election and perhaps I'm just out of touch with the decisive segments of the population. But what I hear around the water cooler at work (I tutor English, History, and Political Science at a community college) when conversation turns to politics is primarily criticism of A. the fact that we went to war in Iraq to begin with, and B. the way the war on terror is making the right to privacy debatable, and C. the way the war is being handled- I'd say pretty much in that order. The governator hasn't really been an issue, the composition of the SCOTUS is fairly rare in discussion, even immigration is seldom discussed (even though our school is more than 50% hispanic and sits just a few miles from the line where demographics in the area shift from predominantly white upper-middle class to predominantly hispanic working class).
Without a doubt, when I talk to students or faculty either casually or in relation to class discussions or essays, Iraq and privacy are the major issues, immigration is only a distant third, and virtually everything else is off the map entirely.

I get home from work and start flipping through the TV channels and Iraq's half the news... it'd be more if it weren't for the campaigns.

Imo, the polls have reflected the disgust that the Republican base has with the crew currently in office. It has been reflected in a threat to stay home on Nov. 7. The Democrats are capitalizing on this sentiment, and rallying their base.

Republicans are certainly not excited about their representation right now, but the Democrats are doing a great job of pressing that advantage to turn an uninspired electorate into a demoralized one. It's one thing to be a little peeved at your party, it's another to be peeved at your party and be constantly surrounded by an aggressive opposition which seems convinced that it is moving in for the kill in just 11 days. I think that on top of the politically informed republicans who won't stand my a Congressman who voted the wrong way, a lot of Republicans who don't even know how their congressman voted are going to sit out just so they won't be on the losing team.

Nowhere was this more visibly illustrated than in the 2004 presidential race.

Exactly. The dems have had this public edge before. The difference this time is not that I think the Dems are going to show up, but that I think the Reps are demoralized enough to sit this one out. That's still a problem for the dems though, and that's the difference between winning just the house and winning both chambers.
There is only so much you can do about some states- I don't honestly see the Dems pulling it off in Tenn or Va, which are the key states to gaining the senate. But the embarrassment is that the dems aren't threatening in Arizona or Nevada, when if they could mobilize the youth and the hispanics they'd nail both of those states and come out of the race with 51 senators.

Another voting block the Rep's are losing are the "soccer moms". They are dissatisfied with the economy and the way it is being run. The DOW hits new record highs, but that isn't translating into fatter paychecks for them.

Yeah, I was really hoping that maybe Rove would somehow arrange for gas to get back under 2 bucks for this last week before the election. I know it's going to be right back over 3 bucks not long after the election, but I just want to get a picture of gas prices starting with a 1... for my grandchildren you know... "back in my day, you could get a gallon of gas for just $1.99. In fact I thought it was a big deal when gas hit $5.00"
Rule number one Republicans/oil execs... if you get between a soccer mom and her miniature 18 wheeler of an SUV, you're totally getting run over.

Vagabond, don't be too quick in writing off Tennessee to the Republicans. Harold Ford, Jr. has served six terms in Congress, which should tell us he's very popular. I live in a very small rural town in Tennessee, where no one supports abortion and devout Christians make up about 99% of the town's population. Normally they would be called conservatives, but they are getting very upset with what Bush is doing. At the local cafe, where everyone gathers, I've heard any number of people complain about Bush's policies and the Iraq war. I've never heard once that anyone thought Bush was doing even a decent job. People here are heavily into individual freedoms and rights and they don't like seeing them taken away. They already think there is way too much federal interference with the local folks. Corker and Ford are just about neck and neck, last I heard. Ford is the only one I ever heard come up with an actual solution for the Iraq war. He's also biracial, so he'll get both black and white votes. He's also brilliant and honest with a good, clean rep. I think Ford has a good chance.

I think alot of Republicans are disgusted with Bush, Iraq and the continuing erosion of our rights and liberties. I think that Dems are determined to win and get the present admin out of power, it's an embarrasment to Republicans.

All of this is considering that the election isn't rigged.

Becky,

I am sorry I thought you were actually looking for a serious discussion. I did not realise that all you wanted was a chance to pass across your biased opinions on the Democrats.

If you decide you want an actual discussion then let me know.

Cheers

S396

Interesting that everyone here seems to think the election will be straight rather than rigged.

When will people wake up to the extent of voter fraud and the impossibility of checking results in a paperless election?

The REAL question is, what will happen when the polls and the exit polls show a massive Dem majority, but the election results show a narrow victory for the Reps?

I think everyone's going to pretend it didn't happen. Again.

Its very interesting to get some insight from a local Forestlady, so I'd like to ask your opinion on something. Do you get the sense that conservatives are actually ready to defect, or do you believe they'll just stay home in disgust? Angry republicans who stay home are only half as damaging as angry republicans who defect afterall.

It's also important to remember that Harold Ford Jr. only had to run in one district for congress, and his district, the 9th, is the only black-majority district in Tenn (and it had to be created by court order). On top of that, minorities don't tend to turn out in proportion to their number.
Polling also shows that as much as 1/3 of Corker's followers consider their vote anti-Ford compared more like 1/4 or 1/5 of Ford's followers seeing their vote as anti-Corker.

My conclusion, which I admit is not by any means a gospel truth, is that in Tennessee we are going to see a fairly unenthusiastic electorate, and Corker's advantage in the animosity factor, which may or may not have something to do with Ford's race, could prove decisive.

I would have liked to provide some info from the primary results in this, but I can't seem to find primary results from Tennessee for some reason. Anybody know where to find the numbers readily?

People are protesting the half baked policys of the Bush admin . The Republican party just happens to be the target of peoples sometimes rational and sometimes not so rational dislike of the Bush admins policys. The problem with people casting protests votes is that after the election people tend to go back to old party loyaltys.

Now if the dems came up with plans and some core values other then exploiting peoples dislike of the Bush admins policys the Republicans would be in the real trouble. The expection seems to be the likes Gore and Dean.

Personally, as a former Republican who left the party because of Bush Sr, I have found the Republican Party to be a party that recruits Christians based upon the party's alleged family values. Over the years I found that they have no more values than any other politician out there, as has been revealed this last month once again. I left the party to become American Independent and then joined the Reform Party in an effort to bring into play another party that might actually represent Middle America.

Today, since the dissolution of the Reform Party, I find my self to be NP. I think that means No Party, but I prefer to think of it as National Party or some other patriotic name like that.

In the election of 2000, I really didn't care who won. They both seemed equal to me at the time. However, as the battle over who won ensued, I watched as Gore stepped back and decided to let the Election Laws determine who the winner was. Meanwhile, Bush was not going to take such a chance as that. He went about putting an end to the counting or recounting of ballots. He fought to have key ballots thrown out, not because they were cast illegally, but on the basis that "it would take too long to count them" thus discounting the value of those U.S. citizens votes....It just turned out that most of those votes came from a heavily democrat district.

That failure to await the proper counting of ALL ballots and then the usurping of power caused me to raise my eyebrows and wonder. Nearly 6 years later, Bush has overstepped ethical boundaries as President many more times all in the name of "doing what he thinks is best for the American People".

All of this time, the Republican Party has been wholeheartedly behind him. They have...

1. Not denied Bush a single request for money or power.
2. Collaborated with him in spending our future social security
3. Increased our national debt from $5.8 Trillion to $9 Trillion
4. Exported most all of the manufacturing jobs in the country
5. Collaborated with U.S. Pharmaceutical Companies to prevent citizens and seniors from obtaining more affordable and needed drugs
6. Driven the cost of living up and the means for earning it down by their economic policies.

There is an even longer list than this. These are only a couple of the key issues that come to my mind that have most Americans royally peeved. I'll bet that others who will be voting against the Republican Party this year could add 3 more items to this list....each....eventually making the list more than 100 problems long. I encourage them to do just that.

I am fed up with Republican ram it down your throat politics. I want politicians who will represent me instead of telling me that they're doing what is best for me whether I like it or not. This is supposed to be a government of the people, by the people and for the people.

As for me, though I have rarely voted Democrat in the past 15 years, I will be voting a STRAIGHT Democrat Ticket this year.



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Originally posted by jsobecky
Now, I am aware that polls can be very misleading. But the Democrats seem to be beating the Republicans at their own game. Why is this?

Could it be that Rove's demotion has hurt them more than they anticipated?

Is the country so fed up with the war that they feel the only way out is for the Dem's to take control?

Is it too late for another "October Surprise" to turn the tide in favor of the Rep's?

Other reasons?

The Democrats have been holding their heads down since the 2004 Elections. This is after many fiascos in the electronic voting systems in many states. I think that is the reason why the Democrats are leading in the polls with six days to go. The Democrats need six seats and fifteen seats in both the House and the Senate to regain control of Congress. The Democratic Pary has not had control of both Houses of the Legislature since 1994. What most people don't realize is that the polls have an error range of four to six percent.

I don't think Rove's demotion had anything to do with the Republicans being behind in the polls like they are. I believe one reason why is it may have something to do with Abrahmoff. (sp?) Here's the kicker though, one of his buddies was incumbent Senator William Jeffers from Louisiana. So not only are the republicans paying the price, some Democrats are as well.

The war in Iraq may also have something to do with the Republicans being behind in the polls. I do think that most people believe that the only way to get our troops out of Iraq is to have a Democratic-Controlled Congress. The current Congress is not going to do anything that has to do with the withdrawal of troops from Iraq. As for the October 'surprise,' it may actually be too late for it to be pulled out of the sleeves of the Republicans. During the Presidential Elections in 2004, the terror card was the surprise. I think, with people being as fed up with the war as they are, that won't work as a strategy again.

Another reason why is because of where some Republicans are taking up for Foley. Since they are taking up for him, it is only tarnishing what little dignity the Republicans in Congress have left. Speaker of the House Hastert has thoroughly backed Foley through this, and he has not backed down from any comments he has said. The thing is, Congress knew about this for years before it was broke in the media.