Diplomacy

There is a lot of talk about diplomacy right now. Supposedly Rice is trying to get a cease-fire by next Wednesday. Hezbo politicians are saying they are game and Syria is telling the Bush administration they will co-operate and support the whole shebang if they get the Golan Heights back.

Anyone think all this will happen?

[edit on 29-7-2006 by princeofpeace]

As a political scientist, I think that we're seeing a well-intended effort on the part of the international community to look like it's doing something without actually committing to a course of action. The truth is that nobody wants a piece of this conflict between Israel and Hezbollah.

President Bush is in a very difficult position. He clearly wants to support Israel, but he can't come out and say that. the Europeans themselves have no love for Israel, but they can't allow themselves to be seen as uncaring. Everybody's trying to stay on their best behavior while Jihadists like Al Zawahiri call for guerillas to infiltrate Lebanon to join Hezbollah.

In the last twelve hours, the IDF has pulled back from its incursion in to the small town of Bint Jbail. Even if what the IDF says about that re-alignment is totally true, it LOOKS like something else to the Arab world. When the sun comes up in the western capitols, it's going to look less like a re-deployment and more like a retreat to the politicians who lack faith in the Isreali cause, or fear the body bag.

Even if we assume that Secretary Rice gets her way on every pont she's made, we still won't see a meaningful U.N. mission in Lebanon before next spring. I think she was very shrewd to say what she has so far. Nobody can fault the Americans for what has been said, or attempted so far. Which is the whole point of the Rice mission.

A lot of Americans go to the polls starting next month and thereafter for primary elections. The best the GOP can hope for at this time is to look sympathetic to Israel without actually committing to anything that will obligate more troops. I have no doubt that the leaders in Tel Aviv know this, and that could be why they pulled back in the first place.

If they are going to be on their own for the rest of this year, Israel needs to re-think their deployments, and their long term goals. Their leaders have clearly lost any nerve they might have had for a larger invasion. Until they get a solid mandate from their own people to forge ahead, we can expect them to remain on their side of the border. Deepest penetration by Christmas may not be any deeper that five miles.

The bottom line is that I think they are their only salvation. If they have the nerve to press on, they'll have to fight a much bigger war. If they win, they will have peace...in about 30 years, after a successful occupation and regime re-alignment of Lebanon and Syria. If the international community forces them to accept anything less...

I dunno about that Justin on the reason for their pullout in the last 12 hours. I heard it was because Hezbollah was so deeply entrenched there that the IDF started losing too many people. And this came from a TV interview with a former high level Israeli official. One theory is that they are pulling out ground forces to open up the field for heavy artillery and airstrikes to tear deeper into the Hezbollah stronghold there. Just repeating what I heard on TV today.

Edit:spelling

[edit on 30-7-2006 by TrueAmerican]

I think that PM Olmert is going to have a lot of explaining to do when the sun comes up in Israel. I know he's a civilian with no military career, I can't help but wonder if he's ordered this pull-back because he really does fear the body bag.

Hezbollah won't be dug out of the ground by artillery and airstrikes alone. History teaches that any defender that chooses to go deep can only be dislodged by boots on the ground. We should know within 24 hours if Olmert made his decisions for military reasons, or not.

In the world of politics, it's not what it is that matters, it's what it LOOKS like. Secretery Rice LOOKS like she's saying and doing everything that's expected. She's really just spinning for time and trying to keep the Israeli situation looked at in what passes for favorable perspective.

If the IDF does not resume offensie operations within the next 72 hours, you can bet that world opinion will applaud them for their restraint...and...insist that no further incursions in to south Lebanon be considered.