Solar activity to increase up to 50% by 2012.

Scientists are predicting that beginning in 2007-2008 and with a peak in 2012 the activity of Sunspots will increase from 30% to 50%, greater than it ever has been since at least 1880.

Astronauts, power grid operators, and satellite managers had better watch out come 2012. Based on a computer simulation of the sun's interior, solar scientists warned today that in 6 years the activity of dark spots on the surface will, with a single exception, be greater than it has been at any point since 1880. The accompanying solar storms could play havoc with satellite communications and threaten space station astronauts.
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Given the model's impressively accurate "hindcasting" of the size and timing of past cycles, Dikpati told a media teleconference today that she is confident "predicting the next solar cycle will be 30% to 50% stronger than the last solar cycle." The next cycle will begin 6 to 12 months later than average, in late 2007 or early 2008, according to the model, and peak in 2012.

Excerpted from.
sciencenow.sciencemag.org...




[edit on 12-3-2006 by Muaddib]

They are finally revealing the truth, a form of disclosure it is. So how relevant is Kyoto these days? Not much if you ask me but we got the UN pushing it.

Regards sun spots, is this part of a cycle that is increasing steadily and leading to a decline? That was the most interesting theory I have come across lately.

Wow, just one reply, I thought this would have grabbed the attention of more members.

We have in this report proof that the sun is going bunks, and it will get worse, which means the Earth will be affected. I know we can't do anything to stop this, but people should know this and be prepared.

That's because someone's already made a thread about it somewhere else here on the board

This has been posted about already.

Originally posted by Shugo
That's because someone's already made a thread about it somewhere else here on the board

This has been posted about already.

I looked for the link you mentioned and finally found it. The link I gave is different from the one he gave, and noone anwsered that post either.

I find it interesting that NASA has planned a return to the Moon to coincide with the next cycle of the sun when it will be at it's minimum of activity.
You wouldn't want the astronauts to be on the surface of the Moon or in transit during a violent eruption from the sun, they could take a lethal dose of radiation, or enough to cause them health problems in the future.

I think if man is going to build a permanent base on the Moon we will have to live underground for protection from radiation and imacts, and people will have to limit the amount of time each person spends on the surface.
Shielding is going to be a concern to Lunar colonists. Not only from radiation, but without an atmosphere to protect you, you need to think about impacts from space rocks and the ejecta they throw out.
A small rock coming at the Earth will burn up or explode in the atmosphere, on the moon it would come in at full speed and any ejecta would have far reaching consequences due to the debris that gets blasted off the surface, only to fall back and cause secondary impacts.

Solar weather is going to be a huge concern for our future space missions, especially when mankind first starts out with manned exploration to other nearby bodies.
And places like the ISS and future orbiting space stations such as hotels and research platforms will need to have radiation "Safe Rooms" so that people can retreat to a secure place during a blast from the sun.

I read somewhere that a water tank the size of the Destiny Module with a habitable cylinder down the center would offer some pretty good protection for astronauts as an emergency shelter from a large solar event. Sorry I don't have a link to back that up, but water is supposed to be able to stop a lot of the harmful radiation.

No matter what the Sun does though, I think we'll all still be here after this next solar max.
And who knows, we may learn something about hardening our future spacecraft and infrastructure against this sort of thing so that it's not a problem down the road...........

Originally posted by Muaddib
Wow, just one reply, I thought this would have grabbed the attention of more members.

Sorry I don't get around to reading the topics as much as I used to. From what I understand our climate reacts rather negatively to sun spots. Unfortunately this topic won't get much coverage. Its much more interesting to take the effects of the solar activity and its impact on our climate and somehow shift the blame to man and his use of fossil fuels. Its hard to justify a treaty and the shifting of wealth over solar activity.

Does anyone know how sun spots impact solar flares which can cause serious communications disruptions?