Will the US intervene, militarily, in Venezuela?

I know that most of the worlds attention has been focused on Iran as a country that, potentially, will be attacked by the United States. The possibility of the proliferation of nuclear weapons in "hostile hands" certainly justifies, in the very least, a serious debate on the subject. However, when one considers that oil is the lifeblood of the United States and that oil is,at least in part, is behind the "interest" that the United States has in the Mid East, one could e easily understand why en.wikipedia.org..." target="_blank" class="postlink">Venezuela should be be of interest to those who are trying to understand the world and the possibilty of impending conflict. But, in this case, the conflict might occur next is not against Iran. It could very well be against Venezuela!

Venezuela is an important oil producing country. The fact that Venezuela is in South Americaand relatively close to the United States makes it a logical choice when considering where the U.S. will import its' oil from. Venezuela provides, according to sources, Petroleos de Venezuela (Pdvsa) accounted for 11.8% (1.52-million barrels a day) of U.S. imports. Now we all can easily come to understand that the United States really likes oil. Oil is "America's blood". At the 2006 State of the Union Address, President Bush called for dramatic cuts in oil imports, the development of new energy technologies and, ultimately, energy independence in the near future. In the meantime, however, the United States will still require huge amounts of oil that will have to be imported.

In these troubled times, all oil imports are vital. At the mere suggestion of a shortage, oil prices, as we all know, can quickly escalate and be reflected in the gasoline prices that we pay at the pumps. Now a government may do a lot of things that people will disagree with -- often vehemently. Because issues that cause dissent are often polarizing items so a government knows that as long as at least half of the population is "on side" then it can continue about it's way and towards its' goals in spite of expected political obstacles, debates and even protests. However, there is one issue that can unite a populace like no other in these times -- gas, fuel and energy prices. There is nothing more that a government fears, respects and heeds like a populace united in discontent and the price at the pump is barometer that can indicate the disharmony of the people.

February, 2006 finds North Americans enjoying lower gasoline prices -- a respite to the pocketbooks and budgets of Americans and Canadians. But no one is truly rejoicing because we all know to well that the prices could just as easily skyrocket to unprecedented levels. We also all realize that the precarious situations in the Middle East could easily trigger the next painful gasoline price rise. We all know that with Hamas in a leadership position in Palestine, the Israeli--Palestinian Peace talks have entered a curious and volatile new phase. Of course, terrorism has been a factor and there are no shortage of "characters" in this scenario with Iran being the latest in the long line of provocateurs -- reveling in it's sinfully proud ability to hoist the banner of Islam (tainted with Persian nationalistic and racist pride). Consumers know that any one of these flash-points can affect them in a way that, to them, a death by suicide bomber would be considered merciful -- the threat of the five dollar US gallon of gas!

However there has been another potential flash-point that smolders and threatens to ignite into another major political and, possibly, military situation. And, though lives will be at stake, we all know that the "real threat" to the American people will come the next time they pull into their Marathon or Sunoco gas station and they begin to fill their tanks whilst emptying their wallets -- the danger of American reliance on Venezuelan oil.

Hugo Chavez, the president of Venezuela is a man who had been raised in the climate of socialism, communism and liberation theology that was the political atmosphere of South and Central America throughout the seventies and eighties. Hugo Chevez has made no pretense of liking the United States or, in particular, of President George Bush. It would not take President Chevez very much to make a blow -- albeit a financial one -- at the United States which would send the economy reeling. All that Venezuela would have to do is to suspend oil exports to the United States or, on the other hand, to simply raise the price of oil. If raising the price of Venezuelan oil were done in concert with en.wikipedia.org... a devastatingly damaging blow could be made against the U.S.

And now the situation has begun to "heat up". February 18th, Mr. Chavez warned the US that he might cut off oil exports if the US continued to try to destabilize his country and government (www.dailytimes.com.pk..." target="_blank" class="postlink" rel="nofollow">Daily Times, Pakistan news report). This is in response to testimony on Venezuela by the U.S. Secretary of State,Condoleeza Rice before congress. Secretary Rice called Venezuela and Cuba "sidekicks" and of Iran.

While the Bush Administration might not have garnered top marks in domestic activities; i.e., the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, the administration is very aware of their military capabilities. While the U.S. military might be stretch thin, a military "exercise" in South America would not be a task beyond the military's current abilities. In fact, considering that Venezuela is practically in the U.S backyard, a military venture would not present an undue hardship, provided that the U.S. learned their lessons from Iraq and "intervened" in Venezuela following a comprehensive plan for winning both the war and the peace.

What do you think? Do you believe that Venezuela and the administration of President Hugo Chavez is heading towards a military confrontation? Would the U.S. enter to secure oil reserves or would they enter on the pretense of eliminating the threat of Venezuelan Coca and drug production? Is there a link between Al Queda and Hugo Chavez? Do you think that the U.S. will find one? Or will the U.S. simply come out and make Hugo Chavez an enemy of the U.S., an addition to "Axis of Evil".?

[edit on 2/19/2006 by benevolent tyrant]

[edit on 2/19/2006 by benevolent tyrant]

[edit on 2/19/2006 by benevolent tyrant]

Well last i checked the current US government have allready staged on coup against him and twice tried to assasinate him so their certainly willing to take risks to get rid of him. I don't think the US will currently risk another invasion or bombing campaign but anything else will probably be tried to get rid of him.

Stellar

Originally posted by StellarX
I don't think the US will currently risk another invasion or bombing campaign but anything else will probably be tried to get rid of him.

Stellar

But, I have to ask, what if Hugo Chavez stopped exporting oil to the United States? Would this be provocation enough to prompt the US government into more drastic measures such as "saving the Venezuelan people from their tyrranical Chavez regime (oil, of course, is just a secondary consideration).

Originally posted by benevolent tyrant

"saving the Venezuelan people from their tyrranical Chavez regime (oil, of course, is just a secondary consideration).

Hum . . . that kind of sounds like something I heard three years ago on another country

Yes Venezuela has to let the US oil base companies that were doing business in his country they has lost a lot of money since Chavez kicked them out of Venezuela and took over their properties.

Originally posted by benevolent tyrant
But, I have to ask, what if Hugo Chavez stopped exporting oil to the United States? Would this be provocation enough to prompt the US government into more drastic measures such as "saving the Venezuelan people from their tyrranical Chavez regime (oil, of course, is just a secondary consideration).

Well the US invaded Iraq to get it's oil of the market, and cause as much instability as possible to help raise oil prices, so i reckon they will smile broadly when Hugo helps to reduce oil supply once again and might in fact be the reason their doing their best to antagonize him....

Anyways!

Stellar

Invading Venezuela would be a mistake, as it would not only piss off the rest of the First World, it would cause serious problems with the rest of South America. Despite all the bluster, Hugo Chavez hasn't DONE anything yet. The US and Venezuela are still big trading partners. We've got as much chance of going to war with Venezuela as we do with Saudi Arabia or China.

But yeah, the administration is prodding Chavez with a stick, hoping that he'll "do something". Here's an idea....try to find some common ground with the man and improve relations. Whatever happen to the United States' history of diplomacy? Seems that all we have no is....peeing contests and rhetoric.