The Map After the WOT

Well, I don't claim to be a prophet, but I decided to do a little looking at what the political landscape might look like around 2030 or so, when the various power plays that I think I see in motion are completed, or at least well under way. Here is what I see happening if everyone gets at least some of their objectives completed:



I used dark blue for both the EU and ECOWAS. They're not exactly one in the same, although France is fairly influential in West Africa and will probably seek to become more so.

The Red is somewhat misleading- those are US invasions, occupations, puppets, or just nations who we will put in a position to generally have to do as we say. I do not expect most of them to be invaded, and I hesitated to make Yemen and Oman red at all, because I'm not sure about their fate. I figure Iran and Syria are obvious candidates for invasion, but I don't know if the others will actually be attacked in order to be brought under control.

The Orange is that I'm the most interested in. That's an Indian and American joint effort at an economic community in East Africa which I suspect will attempt to be formed when Southern Sudan declares independence in 2011-2012. I'm uncertain about Eritrea and Djibouti being included, and it's possible that Tanzania will be included too- if it is, Somalia becomes less certain.

The Dark Red is China, Russia, and their puppets in Central Asia. They might get Turkmenistan too. Georgia might go US or EU instead of Russian, and Azerbaijan might go Russian or EU instead of US. Armenia... well frankly I was just guessing when I put them in the EU's corner.

The Green is what's left of the "independent" Arab world. Including Egypt was a stretch I think, but it's possible.


One thing I realize about this map, which does not trouble me, is that at first glance it appears to reflect a war for oil. But look again. Oil may well be history by the time anything like this could come to pass, but the Red nations actually become a strategic asset more than an economic one after oil. They protect the Indian Ocean and India's Western Flank as well as create a broad front for Russia to have to watch. Why is that important? I'm not convinced that the cold war is over; I think this is just half-time, and Putin seems to be suiting up for the second half.

The more things change, the more they stay the same. Europe kept fighting the exact same wars over and over again, from Fredrick the Great to Hitler. America fought three wars to cross the Appalachians and Mississippi. America's been fighting over the Caribbean since the Spanish American War. etc etc etc.
And that's where I got my idea of what's going on in Africa and South-Central Asia. Afghanistan and Iraq tell me that the next few decades are shaping up to be the 19th Century all over again, with America picking up where Britain left off just before the War to End All Wars.

Any thoughts?

[edit on 20-11-2005 by The Vagabond]

[edit on Sun Dec 21 2008 by The Vagabond]

I can see Sudan splitting into two countries (with China and Russia funding the north and the United States and Britain funding the south). I can see Afghanistan, Iraq, and Kuwait becoming strategic partners.

I don't see Iran and Syria controlled by the U.S. just yet... Iran and Syria are Russian/Chinese Territory.

As for Africa, I don't think there will be much involvement in Africa by other powers besides Sudan.

Basically what I see is a Cold War between the U.S., Britain, Australian, Japan, India, EU, Southern Sudan, Iraq-Kuwait-Afghanistan Alliance

versus

Russia, China, North Korea, Iran, Syria.

Some interesting things to think about:

The fall of communism in Venezuela.
The fall of communism in Cuba

An alliance between Egypt and Northern Sudan.

Another Vietnam-esque war in Sudan over many issues : Islam versus Christianity, Oil, Control of the Nile, Communism versus Democracy.

By the way, this is my favorite thread in the War on Terrorism forum.

Originally posted by Rickey Gerard Perez
I can see Sudan splitting into two countries (with China and Russia funding the north and the United States and Britain funding the south). I can see Afghanistan, Iraq, and Kuwait becoming strategic partners.

The part about Russia funding the North is interesting. I'm not really sure that this will happen though unless A. Russia decides to make sure that America doesn't go after Egypt. and B. There is another war over Kordofan and the Blue Nile province.

I'm also open to the somewhat remote possibility that ECOWAS might try to help Christians in Darfur (Western Sudan) seceede when they see what America and India are doing, in an attempt to get in on the economic development.

I just can't see the Russians considering the North to be a worthy investment unless a strong presence in the Med is one of their major strategic goals, or perhaps if they think that they can use a North-African coalition the bully the Saudis for the benefit of Iran (if don't take Iran out of the picture soon). In the case, they would back a war to retain control of Kordofan and Blue Nile for the benefit of Libya and Egypt- I suspect that the pretext will have something to do with Egypts rights to the flow of the Nile and that Egypt will be the Russian proxy for most action. That would give the Russians some nice puppets in the Southern Med and would make for a strong Northern Sudanese government which a few decades down the road might be able to threaten Saudi, which could be used to radicalize that nation or simply to influence its policy towards the US, especially where allowing access for US troops is concerned.

If there were to be another Arab-Israeli war things could get interesting if Russia has propped up a strong Northern Sudanese force, because then we could be looking at Saudi involvement as well as more North-African involvement. I don't know that this would be enough to tip the scales, and I really don't think that Russia's strategic interests really require action against Israel at this time, although that might change in 20-30 years if they want to topple US-backed moderates in the area (such as Iraq).

I don't see Iran and Syria controlled by the U.S. just yet... Iran and Syria are Russian/Chinese Territory.

Only when the weather is good. Russia has rarely had the sand to support anyone too heavily against the US in that part of the world. They generally just tempt the Egyptians and Syrians into stirring things up with Israel, then at the last minute tell the Egyptians they can't afford to support a war. The Chinese are another story- they've been more apt to do what they please and dare America to stop them at times. The Korean war, of course, is the best example.
So I really suspect that unless domestic conditions in America prevent a war with Iran (which is highly possible in the longrun and almost certain in the short-term) eventually Iran is going down if they don't get the bomb.

I think Syria isn't a matter of if, only when, unless Iran is willing to use the bomb to defend them when they get it. Taking Syria out of the picture is absolutely vital to a pro-Israeli settlement of the Palestinian conflict, and if an American president can ever accomplish that it will do for him what ending Vietnam would have done for Nixon if it hadn't been for Watergate.

If a Republican does it there will probably either be an invason of Syria or a US Sponsored Coup there. If a Democrat does it, I suspect that the US will go through the UN to force the return of the Golan Heights to Syria, and emplace a UN separating force there, which America will hope to use in preventing terrorist border crossings. Neither idea is likely to work, but I think somebody will eventually try it.

Basically what I see is a Cold War between the U.S., Britain, Australian, Japan, India, EU, Southern Sudan, Iraq-Kuwait-Afghanistan Alliance

versus

Russia, China, North Korea, Iran, Syria.

Some interesting things to think about:
The fall of communism in Venezuela.
The fall of communism in Cuba

I'm not so sure that communism will fall in those two nations. Most of South-America is going hard to the left, and Venezuelan actions are likely to actually foster socialist or even communist development in the Caribbean. Cuba may well find itself giving communism another chance, probably with a face very different from Fidel Castro's though.

If I was going to look for any development in South America, I would be concerned about the Columbians pushing Venezuela too far over the FARC issue and starting a war. If that happens, you could be looking at trouble in Panama and we might even start have to really wondering about what might happen in Mexico if the Republican party ever does crack down on immigration etc. I think that the Russians have pretty well figured out why the first half of the cold war went so bad for them- virtually the whole thing was played on their side of the field. We've been running around marking out territory in their back yard ever since they slipped, but now they're starting to mark some territory on our side to compensate.

It also bears mentioning that India's loyalty isn't a sure thing for us. We may be able to earn it in East Africa, but India has a lot to think about at far as China is concerned, not just militarily but economically as well- India would do better to work in tandem with China than to compete with them economically.

It's one heck of a chess game we've got going here.