VINCE IS STILL MOVING NORTHEASTWARD BUT NOT VERY FAST... ABOUT 045/5... SO IT COULD MAINTAIN HURRICANE INTENSITY FOR SEVERAL HOURS
WHILE ITS OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT CHANGES LITTLE. VINCE
IS THEN FORECAST TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY AS IT MOVES OVER EVEN COOLER
WATERS AND NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR RAMPS UP. A COLD FRONT IS SEVERAL
HUNDRED N MI NORTHWEST OF VINCE... AND AS THE FRONT CONTINUES ITS
EASTWARD MARCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC... IT SHOULD PULL VINCE
NORTHEASTWARD AT A GRADUALLY INCREASING FORWARD SPEED. MOST OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO AND SUGGEST THAT VINCE
WILL BE ABSORBED BY THE FRONT IN ABOUT 36 HOURS... BUT IT COULD
TAKE A LITTLE LONGER FOR THE SMALL CIRCULATION OF VINCE TO
COMPLETELY LOSE ITS INDENTITY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST TONIGHT... BUT VINCE
IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN ON MONDAY.
As of 11 p.m. EDT Sunday, Hurricane Vince was located near 34.5 north and 17.8 west, or about 125 miles north-northwest of the Madeira Islands. Vince is tracking toward the northeast at 7 mph and has sustained winds of 75 mph. Estimated minimum central pressure is 987 millibars or 29.15 inches.
Hurricane Vince is a "Star Trek" storm, out of this world with its development and its boldly going where no storm has gone before. Actually a couple of storms (former hurricanes) have hit the Iberian peninsula, where this is headed Monday and Tuesday but not after developing near the Canary Island. This is a classic case of warm core system within a cooler environment, but it is over water that is under the normal threshold for storms. This simply limits the storm to how strong it can develop and its about there now, but a major threat to the areas further northeast and a big rainmaker for western europe.