What is Russia's Likely Response To Israeli Strikes on Iran?

Originally posted by TrueAmerican
I am getting worried, folks.

Learn to love the warm, comforting solace of GLOBAL THERMONUCLEAR WAR and MAD. These things prevent, minimally, any direct actions on the part of Russia with any close US ally, especially a Russian-Syrian-Iranian alliance with Chinese support against Israel.

westpoint
because they wouldn't have enough fuel to get back to Israel.

Thats another good point, do the yehudis have the capacity to fly to iran?

Originally posted by Nygdan
Thats another good point, do the yehudis have the capacity to fly to iran?

The answer to that in short is YES, they can. I calculated the distance using Israel's southern base, Ovda near the Jordanian border, to the Iranian city of Shiraz, which is about 900 to 1000 miles, give or take a few. Note that Bushehr is closer than that, as the distance calculators I used would not pull up Bushehr.

I then compared that with the standard ranges specified for some of the Israeli fighter aircraft such as F-15's and F-16's, which range from 2,400 to 3,400 miles or so. So in theory, they could reach the target and return without in air refueling.

The next question becomes whether or not the munitions needed to take out the reactor would be able to mount on such aircraft, and that I do not know. Maybe some of the more seasoned military experts here could weigh in on that.

Originally posted by WestPoint23


Israel even in the 80’s got very very lucky when they destroyed Iraq's reactors. If Iraq had scrambled a few fighters to engage the Israeli pilots, they would have fallen out of the sky because they wouldn't have enough fuel to get back to Israel.

So neither county is really in a great position to attack each another, without US help the Israelis might not succeed.

Israel has the F-16I now though with its conformal fuel tanks (CFTs) it has a range of 500miles without refueling the extended flight range allows Israeli forces to attack targets well within Iran and Libya without having to refuel.

Then they always got the Jericho IIs

Is the F-16 the fighter you want to attack high value targets blanketed by multiple SAM sites and fighter groups?

TrueAmerican,

Whether they supplied nuclear technicians directly to Osirak is neither here nor there. Russia will not go to war with Israel (and thereby the US from being its ally) over an air strike on Iranian nuclear facilities. I don't care how many Russian technicians are killed in the process; they know full well that Israel and the US are the enemies of Iran. Unless they are completely daft -- which I doubt - the Russians and their technicians anticipate an air strike on Iranian nuclear facilities and will not overreact to it happening.



[edit on 5-10-2005 by Paul_Richard]

Originally posted by Paul_Richard
TrueAmerican,

Whether they supplied nuclear technicians directly to Osirak is neither here nor there.

Ok, I'll agree to disagree with you on that.

Russia will not go to war with Israel (and thereby the US from being its ally) over an air strike on Iranian nuclear facilities.

Well first, I have simply asked what the likely Russian response would be. I have not implied that they would go to a full scale war over it anywhere in this thread. I do think however that Russia might do any number of specific things in retaliation and retribution for hundreds of their nuclear technicians and scientists being killed. This could include any number of economic, political or military actions.

Second, it's interesting that you assume with that statement that Russia would be at war with both Israel and the US immediately as a package of one. But when the tables are turned, you don't assume that Israel would be at war with both Iran and Russia immediately as a package of one. Now granted it would seem that US-Israeli ties are stronger than Russian-Iranian ties, but to what extent exactly for each remains to be seen. And the Russian "promise to defend" issue, stills eludes me for the most part. I can find very little on that, other than that article I posted from Rense.

Unless they are completely daft -- which I doubt - the Russians and their technicians anticipate an air strike on Iranian nuclear facilities.

Ahh, so then it might be possible that Russia could be part of the response, as I suggested earlier in the thread and nobody has seemed to address yet. Thanks for pointing that out. Again.

But most surely they have anticipated possible impending airstrikes, that much we can agree on. And with all those scientists in Iran, one has to wonder what additional death traps the Russians might have set to protect them. Of course, the way you seem to be thinking on this Paul, the Russians haven't done a thing to protect them because heck- it's only a few hundred Russian nuclear scientists- a dime a dozen and easily replaceable. Right?

Originally posted by Nygdan
They simply don't have the 'force projection capacity' anymore.

I completely disagree.

If they don't have the 'force projection capacity' than other countries like Israel, most definately don't even come close.

Just how do you figure this??

And what about China? They have a hell of a lot more money invested in Iran than everyone else combined!

Utterly isolationist.

Originally posted by NygdanTo stop the strike? They'd have to sell these things to iran before the strike, in order to accomplish this.

Obviously. I don't see any problem with that.

Originally posted by NygdanThats a bit of an if tho no?

What do you mean?

The point is simple.

Israel flies bombers to attack nuclear reactor. Bombers get shot down a long way away from their target.

How is this an 'if though' statement?

Originally posted by Nygdan
The iranian air force is, from what I understand, extremely backwards. Hussein's army in the previous situation was about the same, if not better equiped, and they couldn't stop them.

What? Iraq was attacked by stealth bombers of USA.

Iran would be attack by Israel, Israel isn't USA, so you can't compare the wars.

Originally posted by Nygdan
They'd have to search a rather large area to find a small set of small planes.

I think they are going to know exactly where to search.
Surely they must know all the airbase locations of a country, who is potentially going to ruin all their investments in Iran? Surely China does too? And I'm sure they'd be glad to share such intel with each other.

Originally posted by Nygdan
Who? The Russians? They can't but barely deal with the chechnyans, and they have geo-strategic commitments elsewhere, like central asia and their european border.

The exact same can be said about the US. They aren't winning the war in Iraq, it's a quagmire, and they have a lot of commitments elsewhere, but you're not saying they can't start another war are you? Or are you?

Besides, Russia has 20 mill reserves, so if they really wanted to go to war with Israel, they could call upon their reserves.
(Note, that I'm not saying they could undertake an extreme measure like that, but just saying they can).

Originally posted by Nygdan
From what I recall they can just barely afford to pay their troops consistently.

Well they pay 'em next to nothing, so I don't see how that's a problem.

Originally posted by Nygdan
Lets consider the possibilities that don't inlcude 'power-mad dictator tries to take over the world'.

I certainly hope one of these people doesn't get elected....but what if? You never know.
I mean....George Bush got elected, twice - and it's downright obvious he's a 'powe-mad dictator' who wants to take over the world.

Originally posted by Nygdan
Global Thermonuclear War. MAD assures that Russia wouldn't try to take over the world. They didn't do it when they were the Soviet Union, they're not going to do it now.

Are you are going on about? Nobody is suggesting anything like that, certainly not me. Only saying they could invade Israel, if Israel pisses of Russia too much - that's all.

I hope Israel does nothing

And what happens when Iran sells nukes to international terrorists and a western city get vaporized? Do you think that the global repurcussions will be greater or lesser if that happens?

Oh come on now! Let's have a little faith in Iran and hope they aren't even developing nukes at all.

Let's just for a minute consider that the whole reason for their nuclear program is electricity. Do you even think that's a possibility? I certianly think so!!!

Originally posted by NygdanIs the world less stable with israel hitting a facility in iran, or with the US mounting a full scale invasion of iran based on intelligence reports of them providing the nukes? If theres a 'power mad russian dictator' in moscow, which war would be worse, a yehudi-ruski war, or russian-american global thermonuclear war?

Okey a few things.

Firstly, niether Russia or America are dumb enough to go to war with each other.

I don't care if Bush would be the american president, and some communist would be the russian president, I still think they would be smarter than that.

And if they go to war, niether is going to use nuclear weapons. Nor chemical weapons, it will probably be a conventional war. And after some fighting they might come to their senses and realise niether could beat the other by a longshot, and have a big group hug.

If America decided to invade Iran, there would probably just be a harmless (to the rest of the world) proxy war.

Who wins? it doesn't really matter, niether side will be upset enough to use nukes, just as in the past.

[edit on 5-10-2005 by Manincloak]

Originally posted by Manincloak

Originally posted by Nygdan
The iranian air force is, from what I understand, extremely backwards. Hussein's army in the previous situation was about the same, if not better equiped, and they couldn't stop them.

What? Iraq was attacked by stealth bombers of USA.

Iran would be attack by Israel, Israel isn't USA, so you can't compare the wars.

[[edit on 5-10-2005 by Manincloak]

I think he was referring to when Israel used a number US supplied F-15s and F-16s to bomb the Osirak reactor in Iraq.

Well, I don't know about reading skill points, but my skills in the understanding and depth of Russian-Iranian relations, the extent of their mutual nuclear involvement, and the role of their relationship and its implication to stability in the middle east and the Persian Gulf- just increased by about 10 points.

If after reading ALL of that, should you dare, I challenge you to come back here and say the Russians will do nothing if Israel chooses to act unilaterally as they have so warned. And that's from 2001! I might also point out that Israel would not likely have made that warning unless they were capable of pulling it off.

The previous research on the distances and fighter ranges only helps to confirm that a bit, although yes, it does leave a lot of unanswered questions. The thought of them attacking by submarine is indeed a curious one, although again, the issue of actual munitions needed to take out not only Bushehr but other sites as well remains unclear to me. I am looking for serious input here. Please help.

Originally posted by TrueAmerican
If after reading ALL of that, should you dare, I challenge you to come back here and say the Russians will do nothing if Israel chooses to act unilaterally as they have so warned. And that's from 2001! I might also point out that Israel would not likely have made that warning unless they were capable of pulling it off.

After reading all that, Russia will do absolutely nothing if Israel destroys Iran's reactor. All it means for Russia is some more hard currency from more military sales to Iran
Besides after all the public rhetoric, Russia doesn't want a nuclear armed fundamentalist Iran on its doorstep. Russia's arrangement with Iran is short term IMO. The Russian future does not lie in that area of the world.
I wouldn't be surprised if Russia gave secret approval to Israel if they decided to attack Iran's nuclear complexes

Man, you sure read aweful quick rogue. Honestly, I'm having a hard believing you actually read all that, and ran it all through your brain. But ok, if you did, and still feel that way, then great. Thanks for your valued, highly elaborate and explicit opinion.

Originally posted by TrueAmerican
Man, you sure read aweful quick rogue. Honestly, I'm having a hard believing you actually read all that, and ran it all through your brain.

Geez it wasn't that long.

But ok, if you did, and still feel that way, then great. Thanks for your valued, highly elaborate and explicit opinion.

The underlying theme which pervades Russia/Iran relations is money. The Iranians have it and the Russians want it. Russia has shown itself time and again whoring it's latest military tech for a bit of hard currency. This supplements the budget of the Russian Army.
Apart from that, the Russians want to make the US uncomfortable.

IF Iran did produce a bomb, I would expect Russia to be as uneasy as the west. After all, Russia ( aka USSR ) has a shocking record when it comes to muslim repression. Which in itself makes the realtionship strange.

If all there is to the Russian Iranian relationship is money it won't last long. They share no ideologies, have different morales and completely different cultures. IMO at least one of these is needed for a long term partnership or alliance.

Originally posted by rogue1
The underlying theme which pervades Russia/Iran relations is money. The Iranians have it and the Russians want it. Russia has shown itself time and again whoring it's latest military tech for a bit of hard currency. This supplements the budget of the Russian Army.

Yes, agreed that money is one underlying theme. But it is dwarfed by the staggering amount of weapons sales that Russia has developed with all the other countries, and Russia has been offered many economic incentives that would help offset the cost of dropping Iranian ties.

That's why to me there is something else going on here that glues Russia so stubbornly to maintaining their nuclear ties with Iran, that they would not concede to extreme US/EU pressure. Possibly strategic location access to the Persian Gulf? It is probably seen as vital, and especially if they have secret plans with other powers for a major global confrontation- evidence of which seems to be appearing more and more.

IF Iran did produce a bomb, I would expect Russia to be as uneasy as the west. After all, Russia ( aka USSR ) has a shocking record when it comes to muslim repression. Which in itself makes the realtionship strange.

Well, it may make the Russians uneasy, but not because Iran would bite the hand that feeds it. How many years now have these two been in bed together and cultivated the relationship? Over 11 years. If WMD's come back to haunt Russia in the form of a terrorist act, I doubt it would come directly from Iran. It is the proliferation to terrorists that is more likely the concern. And yeah, you said it: the relationship IS strange.

If all there is to the Russian Iranian relationship is money it won't last long. They share no ideologies, have different morales and completely different cultures. IMO at least one of these is needed for a long term partnership or alliance.

How do you explain then this long term alliance, which shows absolutely no, zero, zilch, nada chance of letting up despite the tremendous pressure? Because there is something else going on! That is my suspicion, and is how I tie it to my belief that the world may be in for a real shock if Israel does, or tries to do- the dirty deed.

Originally posted by TrueAmerican

How do you explain then this long term alliance, which shows absolutely no, zero, zilch, nada chance of letting up despite the tremendous pressure? Because there is something else going on! That is my suspicion, and is how I tie it to my belief that the world may be in for a real shock if Israel does, or tries to do- the dirty deed.

What long term alliance ? Is there an alliance, I han't heard of one. The Russians won't sacrifice one soldier for Iran. After all it wasn't too long ago that Iran referred to the USSR as the Lesser Satan ( the US being the great satan ).

Aight, well rogue, if you did read that article, I think you might wanna read it again. Regardless, you've established your position pretty clearly, and I appreciate the input.

[edit on 6-10-2005 by TrueAmerican]

Nothing really, other than to profit by the inevitable spike in arms sales to Iran and other places in the middle east.

Originally posted by TrueAmerican

Russia will not go to war with Israel (and thereby the US from being its ally) over an air strike on Iranian nuclear facilities.

Well first, I have simply asked what the likely Russian response would be. I have not implied that they would go to a full scale war over it anywhere in this thread.

No, but that is the main concern implied.

Originally posted by TrueAmerican
I do think however that Russia might do any number of specific things in retaliation and retribution for hundreds of their nuclear technicians and scientists being killed. This could include any number of economic, political or military actions.

Sure.

Originally posted by TrueAmerican
Second, it's interesting that you assume with that statement that Russia would be at war with both Israel and the US immediately as a package of one. But when the tables are turned, you don't assume that Israel would be at war with both Iran and Russia immediately as a package of one.

True. They were not a "package of one" when Israel attacked the nuclear facility in Iraq either.

Originally posted by TrueAmerican
Now granted it would seem that US-Israeli ties are stronger than Russian-Iranian ties, but to what extent exactly for each remains to be seen. And the Russian "promise to defend" issue, stills eludes me for the most part. I can find very little on that, other than that article I posted from Rense.

I question the credibility of Rense.

Secondly, Russia is simply "rattling its saber." They do that constantly, as does Red China. The military of the former is much weaker than it was when they invaded Afghanistan. Russia is not ready for a war with Israel and the US. They know this while discreetly making money off of arms sales and technical support to countries like Iran.

Unless they are completely daft -- which I doubt - the Russians and their technicians anticipate an air strike on Iranian nuclear facilities.

Originally posted by TrueAmerican
Ahh, so then it might be possible that Russia could be part of the response, as I suggested earlier in the thread and nobody has seemed to address yet. Thanks for pointing that out. Again.

Isn't that the gist of the thread question?

We are not here debating about Russia initiating economic sanctions to an air strike in Iran. We are debating about Russia having a military response.

Originally posted by TrueAmerican
But most surely they have anticipated possible impending airstrikes, that much we can agree on.

Agreed.

Originally posted by TrueAmerican
And with all those scientists in Iran, one has to wonder what additional death traps the Russians might have set to protect them.

Rattling their saber mainly.

To be sure, Iran will respond militarily.

Originally posted by TrueAmerican
Of course, the way you seem to be thinking on this Paul, the Russians haven't done a thing to protect them because heck- it's only a few hundred Russian nuclear scientists- a dime a dozen and easily replaceable. Right?

Better to have a few hundred scientists killed that know the risks of being in Iran, then to go to war with the US, Israel, and their allies. I don't think they are foolish, just arrogant, double-dealing and greedy, which is generally the Russian way.

A good deal of the government over there is run by the Russian mafia. I know this from a friend of the family who was married to a young Russian woman. The government is too corrupt, too disorganized, and too poor to wage war at this juncture. In light of that, they are out for monetary gain and have no intention of getting directly involved militarily in the Middle East.

Expect more saber rattling.



[edit on 6-10-2005 by Paul_Richard]

Whilst I don't fear any Russian intervention from am Israeli attack, I would be concerned about the implications this would have for the growing democratic movement in Iraq. Any attack from Israeli IMO would further entrenched the hardline clerics and ayatollahs.
It is interesting that some people imply a Russia-Chinese-Iran alliance. However both Russia and China actively suppress their muslim populations; China far more overtly than Russia. It doesn't bode well for any hopes the Iranians have that these two anti-muslim powers would shed blood in any conflict to defend them let alone a world wide one.

PS. IMO, it wouldn't surprise me if the Russians ' leaked ' the plans of the facilities to the Israeli's at the apropriate time, maybe just before the Iranians have enough fissile material for a crirical mass.

In WW2 Russia looked to take land mass, so that is one thing they might probably do.

Russia could use Air Strikes on Iran as a cue to mobilise more forces around bordering regions.





[edit on 7-10-2005 by ThePunisher]

Removed upon further communication from ThePunisher. Disregard.

[edit on 7-10-2005 by TrueAmerican]