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is the UK heading for a recession?

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posted on Sep, 24 2005 @ 02:11 PM
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In my BTEC National Certificate in business course, we have been discussing the Economy. We started talking about recession and the tutor was giving us the impression we are heading for a recession. Yes, consumer spending/confidence is low and business confidence is falling too, but im still unsure on what to make of this. Im very skeptical on it to be honest, i cannot see a recession happening this year.

im hoping to get your views on this cause i have to write about recessions and depression in my assignment.




posted on Sep, 25 2005 @ 03:00 AM
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Originally posted by infinite
In my BTEC National Certificate in business course, we have been discussing the Economy. We started talking about recession and the tutor was giving us the impression we are heading for a recession. Yes, consumer spending/confidence is low and business confidence is falling too, but im still unsure on what to make of this. Im very skeptical on it to be honest, i cannot see a recession happening this year.

im hoping to get your views on this cause i have to write about recessions and depression in my assignment.




I actually just started a new weekend job [during the day] in HMV.

In the last two years the whole of the town [or so I was told by the manager] has been slipping down. In fact this year they are £2000 less per-month than the previous year and in a town with only 48,000 people that's a lot of money.

From what I can gather in all of Oxfordshire, the economy here is heading for one.



posted on Sep, 25 2005 @ 06:38 PM
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IIRC a 'recession' is technically speaking 3 consecutive quaters of negative growth (in *whichever* sector of the economy: so there can be a technical recession in the manufacturing side of the economy but not other parts and vis-versa).

It's also worth bearing in mind that people (mainly political opponents of this UK gov) have been predicting recession since 1997-98.
Basically since day 1.

It hasn't happened.

The rate of growth has occasionally missed its predicted figure but that is nothing like an actual 'recession', nor even an actual figure of negative growth.

IMO that is all that is happening now.
A predicted rate of growth will in actuality turn out to be less than expected (almost exclusively due to external factors, principally the price of oil and slower growth elsewhere) but it will be a long way off of anything like a recession.

The remarkable thing is that despite a near triplling of the price of oil (similar to the hikes in 1973/4) - which provoked UK inflation to climb to just over 26% - there has been so little economic dislocation.
Even the doubling of prices in 1979/80 led to a UK inflation rate of 22%.
I suppose this is because today oil, in real terms, is still cheap.

IIRC this gov has presided over an unparalleled period of UK growth since 1997; thankfully I can see no sign of it ending, I wouldn't be panicking just yet.



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