Palistinian Government Threatens To Shut Down (moved from ATSNN)

The ability of the Palistinians to govern themselves has continued to erode in the wake of Yasser Arafat's death. The problem has become so severe that the Prime Minister has threatened to go on strike along with his entire cabinet if security forces do not crack down on the Arab on Arab violence that has plagued much of the palistinian controlled territories.



This statement by the Prime Minister should punctuate the desperation of the teetering Palistianian Authority. They have been unsuccessful in quelling the violence among the various factions of the PLO. World attention, however, has been distracted by the conflict and violence in Iraq. If the Palistinian Authority colapses, it will result in a power vaacum that is likely to spawn a civil war within the palestinian territories. This in turn could draw Israeli military forces back into the fray which would result in the repolarization of the Arab world against Israel and her primary ally the US.

To summerize, while the world is distracted with the cat and mouse conflict in Iraq, the lion of global conflict may be stalking its blind side. Wary world watchers would do well to keep a close eye on the deteriorating situation in the Israeli territories.

The prospect of Hamas or Hezbollah acting without central direction or hinderance, disturbs me only slightly more than envisioning Time Square without a traffic cop.

News Flash: The Pali's have been fighting a low-intensity civil war for over a decade now. The P.A. has no real authority over most of thier psuedo-state and anarchy is almost the established condition. The Hamas will come out on top, I believe, but no real solution for these miserable people short of genocide seems possible.

I wonder if people realize that Palistine falling into chaos could be what triggers the next world war. We all watch the dance being played out in Taiwan and Iraq but neither of these two places is likely to spawn a global conflict.

Iraq is a war of attrition that has no national players other than the US committed enough to carry the conflict to the next level.

Taiwan has the potential to become a regional conflict should China seek to enforce its will on the tiny Island but history has shown that the Chinese are very pragmatic and patient and are unlikely to pull the trigger on a war that would do nothing but deflate their influence and crash their economy.

The Israel / Palestine conflict however has a multitude of nations deeply committed to the opposing causes. If Chaos should break out in the occupied territories, Israel would be forced to resond to bring peace and order. This would involve military occupation of these areas again. In the course of military occupation, bad things often happen. Jordan may see fit to step in to help bring peace, or Syria, or even egypt. You may well see Russia or Europe bring "peace keepers" to the area. Before you know it you could have enough concentration of armament in one place that a war would be a very likely outcome. We need to closely watch this degenerating situation.