It looks like you're using an Ad Blocker.
Please white-list or disable AboveTopSecret.com in your ad-blocking tool.
Thank you.
Some features of ATS will be disabled while you continue to use an ad-blocker.
July 23, 2003?A new World Bank research report warns that HIV/AIDS causes far greater long-term damage to national economies than previously assumed, for by killing mostly young adults, the disease is robbing the children of AIDS victims of one or both parents to love, raise and educate them, and so undermines the basis of economic growth over the long haul.
This suggests that a country like South Africa could face progressive economic collapse within several generations unless it combats its AIDS epidemic more urgently.
According to the new report "The Long-run Economic Costs of AIDS: Theory and an Application to South Africa" most studies of the macroeconomic costs of AIDS, as measured by reduced GDP growth rates, do not pay enough attention to the way in which human knowledge and potential are created and can be lost.
This is one of the key channels influencing long-term growth. In Africa, for example, where the epidemic has hit the hardest to date, existing estimates range between a modest decline of 0.3 and 1.5 percent in GDP growth annually. In contrast, the report argues that the costs are likely to be much higher.
"Previous estimates overlooked the impact of HIV/AIDS on children if one or both parents die, how they can suddenly become orphans, how they become vulnerable to dropping out of school, and how, in this way, the disease weakens the ability of today's generation to pass on its skills and knowledge to the next," says Shanta Devarajan, co-author of the new research findings, and Chief Economist of the World Bank's Human Development Network.
"In those countries facing an HIV/AIDS epidemic on the same scale as South Africa, for example, if nothing is done quickly to fight their epidemic, they could face economic collapse within several generations, with family incomes being cut in half."