a reply to:
LittleJake
Hmm, never seen this YT 'er's channel before. Clearly seems to be on the Russian side, but he sounds reasonable and thorough as well. Really too
thorough, as in diving too deep into the weeds as far the battle analyses go. That said, he does a much more detailed job than any of the more common
pro-Ukrainian battle analysts on YT that I've seen.
It does look like his battle pictures showing terrain, destroyed vehicles and such look legit; however, when he quotes total numbers of Ukrainian
combat losses, both in men and equipment, I am more than a bit suspect because I imagine he is getting his info from the Russian MOD. However, I
admire his presentation style and very detailed map graphics. Whether results of the battles and the lack of change in battle lines on his maps
reflect what is really happening, that is another matter. I wouldn't dismiss it out of hand.
To answer the OP's question, I haven't seen or heard anything so far to refute these videos. I'm saying this as a Ukraine supporter.
I've had my doubts about this offensive, and some of the first news I saw from the more realistic pro-Ukrainian YT' er's hasn't been that good so far,
and has shown some egregious small-level tactical mistakes by the Ukrainians . Breaching these long-fortified positions was never going to be easy in
any case. If they are attempting to do so in day attacks and with less-than-optimal tactical doctrine, I really have worries about the results.
It's been my contention all along the the only way Ukraine can actually win is if western economic sanctions really start putting a strangle hold on
the Russian economy and war effort. That and the evidently ongoing large-scale sabotage campaign that continues to sap the Russian war effort. I've
been hearing about drone strikes taking out Russian natural gas production in recent days. Because of economic sanctions, which have drastically
reduced Russia's income from resource exports, the country is now running a large deficit and has nowhere to borrow money from. Russia will have to
either raise taxes or start printing money, and either policy will cause big domestic problems. This is the only practical route to a collapse of the
Putin regime if there is one. And this is the only path that will lead to a settlement favoring Ukraine.
For the Ukrainians to win militarily, they will need to have incredible success soon in this offensive or somehow win the war of attrition. Right now
they aren't winning that war in terms of equipment and ammunition. And whether they're winning it in manpower is a matter of speculation, but there
is no way that Ukraine can replace troops as readily as the Russians. Russia far out produces Ukraine and its allies with respect to ammunition. The
west is ramping up ammunition manufacture, but it still won't rival Russia's, so I don't see Ukraine winning the war of attrition unless they can
leverage the newer weapon systems they are receiving from the west in order to obtain an advantage on the battlefield and a very favorable equipment
loss ratio vs the Russians. If what the above videos reflects what is truly happening on the battlefield, I don't see Ukraine achieving military
success.
I hope it is otherwise, and I think we'll know more in a week or two. But I see this war likely settling into purely a war of attrition, not unlike
the Iraq-Iran war or WWI. Not a pretty picture.