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Australia & NZ - Possibility of eradication

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posted on Apr, 15 2020 @ 04:38 AM
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I don't want to jump the gun here, things can change very quickly with this virus, but in Australia, and New Zealand, things are looking promising right now. NZ went for a hard and fast shutdown with a hope to eradicate right from the start, Australia went for a slightly less aggressive shutdown, varying somewhat from State to State. Both have seen a massive drop in reported cases. Today, Australia reported 47 new cases, down from 457 on 28th March. My home state of South Australia recorded no new cases today. Australia's death toll is at 63.

Two weeks ago, there was no talk of eradicating the virus in Australia, it was all about flattening the curve, but today, there are experts starting to consider total eradication as a possibility. This is especially the case in certain states (State borders are also closed and quarantine required for travel). This all comes with a catch, however, that could become a major conundrum, should eradication be achieved.

Australia is a massive island, New Zealand is also an Island nation. Australia has a long history of strict quarantine and bio-security measures at international customs, as does NZ. This is because these nations are free of many of the agricultural diseases and diseases such as rabies, but human diseases were never considered in quarantine measures. One major reason Australia may be able to eradicate Covid-19 is because anyone entering the country is now escorted, by military guard, to a hotel, and held there under guard for 14 days. How long can this situation be held?

Imagine 12 months or even two years from now, the virus has ravaged the world, but has largely died down - most of the world now has some kind of immunity. Australia and New Zealand may still be unaffected, but also not immune, with borders remaining strictly closed. This would mean that we would be essentially cut-off from the rest of the world, with people only entering if they are willing to be quarantined like livestock. This situation may never be able to be lifted, as the second it is, the virus will rip through.

So, we may be able to eradicate down here - but then what?




posted on Apr, 15 2020 @ 04:46 AM
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a reply to: harold223

just my opinion - but you will NEVER erradicate the N19COVID virus - it will remain in reservoirs " somewhere "

but both AUS & NZ will have developed a partial heard imunity - and even if no vaccine comes down the pipe

future outbreaks - will have a verry flat curve - for both counties - with each subsequent one - having lower impact

italy got stuffed - because they had a massive spread in a short time - and liimited area

YMMV



posted on Apr, 15 2020 @ 04:47 AM
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Aussie Aussie Aussie!!!

We killed millions of Aussie Jobs for 63 Deaths

Well done Australia!




edit on 15-4-2020 by Jamie2018 because: (no reason given)



posted on Apr, 15 2020 @ 05:04 AM
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originally posted by: Jamie2018
Aussie Aussie Aussie!!!

We killed millions of Aussie Jobs for 63 Deaths

Well done Australia!


The jobs will come back, those 63 people won't. How many deaths would it be if they didn't shut anything down? The answer is Sweden.



posted on Apr, 15 2020 @ 05:06 AM
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Basically I'll never be able visit my family again then, as a three week holiday would become nothing after a quarantine period...the thing is I can see them actually keeping these quarantine rules for a virus which really isn't that bad. I'm in the UK and don't know anyone even effected by the virus. It's only killed 0.02 percent of the population. That's 2 percent of 1 percent. Meanwhile about 2 percent will probably die from the economic fallout.



posted on Apr, 15 2020 @ 05:08 AM
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originally posted by: LordAhriman

originally posted by: Jamie2018
Aussie Aussie Aussie!!!

We killed millions of Aussie Jobs for 63 Deaths

Well done Australia!


The jobs will come back, those 63 people won't. How many deaths would it be if they didn't shut anything down? The answer is Sweden.


I doesn't matter if it 63 or 630, more people will die because of the economic shutdown.



posted on Apr, 15 2020 @ 05:17 AM
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a reply to: ignorant_ape

thats what Ive been saying to people, no one can stop this virus from spreading, it started in northern hemisphere in winter and now summer is coming, the southern hemisphere will get their winter and lets see what happens, hopefully nothing bad happens, and then after 7 or 8 months winter for the north and so on.

I think that every single person will get it on this planet, unless of course they come up with a vaccine.



posted on Apr, 15 2020 @ 05:43 AM
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a reply to: ignorant_ape

You may well be right, although local eradication in some states is a very real possibility. But the premise of this thread is, how long can that situation realistically be held? Can we hold quarantine on travellers forever? Who would take responsibility for the ramifications of lifting the quarantines, knowing that it would be a decision that would likely cost at least some lives. Would hate to be a political leader right now, you really cant win whichever way you go.



posted on Apr, 15 2020 @ 06:43 AM
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originally posted by: Dr UAE
a reply to: ignorant_ape

thats what Ive been saying to people, no one can stop this virus from spreading, it started in northern hemisphere in winter and now summer is coming, the southern hemisphere will get their winter and lets see what happens, hopefully nothing bad happens, and then after 7 or 8 months winter for the north and so on.

I think that every single person will get it on this planet, unless of course they come up with a vaccine.


Yes you can stop it spreading. Close the borders and lock down. Its working in countries as we speak.



posted on Apr, 15 2020 @ 07:30 AM
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The new case is dropped as of two weeks ago ?

That sounds familiar . 🤔



posted on Apr, 15 2020 @ 09:03 AM
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Complete isolation would eventually, like you stated, leave your country ripe for an outbreak. The popular idea is "herd immunity" but introduced slowly so the health system can handle it. Even if some pockets of the world human population manage to go uninfected until the human versions died out, there will be animal to human cross infections that can happen.

It will be like AIDS, herpes, the shingles, it will never go away and crop up again and again.



posted on Apr, 15 2020 @ 10:34 AM
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a reply to: MichiganSwampBuck

Unfortunately many people don’t understand this.

They actually think we are going to somehow eliminate this virus as if it never existed. Maybe in some utopian future we will have the means to do this, but not at this time.

We are stuck with the virus until we have natural immunities, a cure or a vaccine. This is not even debatable.

This is why I prefer the Sweden model. They may have more deaths today, but will be immune before the rest of the world. We are only slowing down the death rate with the actions we are taking. Without a cure or vaccine people will continue to die until everyone has been infected.

Mitigation was only good for the hospitals, it will not stop further outbreaks.

Die now or die in round 2? Or isolate yourself forever and die from lack of social interaction. There are no other options.

And like the influenza vaccine people can die from the vaccine itself, people can still get the disease and die and the disease may mutate to the point where the vaccine is irrelevant. So outside of a cure there is no sure way to defeat the virus.



edit on 15-4-2020 by Isurrender73 because: (no reason given)



posted on Apr, 15 2020 @ 10:55 AM
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originally posted by: ignorant_ape
a reply to: harold223

just my opinion - but you will NEVER erradicate the N19COVID virus - it will remain in reservoirs " somewhere "

but both AUS & NZ will have developed a partial heard imunity - and even if no vaccine comes down the pipe

future outbreaks - will have a verry flat curve - for both counties - with each subsequent one - having lower impact

italy got stuffed - because they had a massive spread in a short time - and liimited area

YMMV
This virus will be an all seasons Chrojan Flu which be more effective in a particular temp range e.g. 9-15c (or other similar). It will step in and out of hibernation within the host if it does in fact randomly auto hibernate which is why the symptom range is no to symptoms to death. So where it hibernates quick there are no or little symptoms when first infected. What happens with re-infection who knows. just an idea I had!



posted on Apr, 16 2020 @ 06:08 AM
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More information out today, in regard to the possibility of eliminating the Virus in Australia.




Social distancing is holding new COVID-19 infection levels low enough to eliminate the virus from mainland Australia, new federal government modelling shows.

While the expert team behind the modelling has not estimated a date by which the virus could be defeated, they project it could be months away, rather than weeks.

Yet loosening social distancing restrictions will inevitably lead to it returning and cases rising, researchers say, which means we would need to maintain such measures to keep the virus at bay, rather than return to life as normal.

The model suggests that every 10 people infected currently spread the virus to five more people, on average. At that level, the virus would eventually be unable to circulate and would die out within Australia.


www.smh.com.au...

Now I agree that this may be a long shot, but models are showing that it is possible. It still does not address the fact that if successful, then what? Quarantine and mandatory testing at border entry for international arrivals for 1 year, 2, 10 years? An interesting prospect.



posted on Apr, 16 2020 @ 08:23 AM
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We killed millions of Aussie Jobs for 63 Deaths
a reply to: Jamie2018
So you would be happy with 630 deaths and no partial lockdown , how about 6500 or 65000 . Whats YOUR number Jamie .



posted on Apr, 16 2020 @ 08:27 AM
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a reply to: harold223

What's the alternative approach?
The extreme would be to simply let the virus run wild infecting the entire population over a matter of weeks or months so you end up with the survivors showing immunity and everyone else gone. Just a question of which approach results in the least casualties per unit of time that the necessary services could handle without piling bodies in the streets.



posted on Apr, 17 2020 @ 06:19 AM
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originally posted by: hutch622
So you would be happy with 630 deaths and no partial lockdown , how about 6500 or 65000 . Whats YOUR number Jamie.

First you'll have to answer for why you have not been calling for permanent self-quarantine to address the tens of thousands of deaths each year to the flu.

MURDERER!



posted on Apr, 17 2020 @ 06:37 AM
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originally posted by: hutch622



We killed millions of Aussie Jobs for 63 Deaths
a reply to: Jamie2018
So you would be happy with 630 deaths and no partial lockdown , how about 6500 or 65000 . Whats YOUR number Jamie .



My Number is Zero. But we can't hide under our beds.

We don't destroy Hundreds of Thousands of Jobs for Cancer, Diabetes, Aids, Alcoholism, Drug Overdoses, Road Deaths, Suicides - Military Suicides, Heart Attacks, Strokes, Obesity, or any other Deaths because 63 people Died.

Zero Deaths is my Answer, but way more than 63 will die with these Over the Top shutdowns,



posted on May, 8 2020 @ 02:03 AM
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Things are looking pretty good at the moment in parts of Australia. Although not likely to be completely eradicated (although still possible) Australia has significantly suppressed the virus. It is regionally eradicated in many places. The state of South Australia has recorded one new case in the past 15 days and now only has two active cases. The SA government will be beginning Stage 1 of re-opening on Monday 11th May. The entire country will begin a three stage opening process as well, with a four week monitoring period in between, but South Australia will be opening up slightly more due to the lack of cases. State borders will remain restricted for at least the next two to three months, maybe longer and the same with international borders.

Below is a summary from South Australian Government as this is my home state. Similar things are happening on a state by state basis. Some states will stay restricted longer due to more caseload.

Starting Monday 11th May (Stage 1):




Regional travel (within the state)
Uni and TAFE face-to-face tutorials
Outdoor dining for restaurants and cafes
Community, youth and RSL halls
Auctions and inspections
Local government libraries
Sport training (outdoor only)
Funerals (20 indoor / 30 outdoor max)
Worship, weddings and ceremonies
Pools (limits apply)
Campgrounds and Caravan parks


Stage Two 8th June




Cinemas & Theatres
Seated dining (indoors)
Galleries and museums
Beauty, nails, tattoo, massage (non-therapeutic)
Driving instruction lessons
Gyms and indoor fitness
Funerals (50 max)
Sport transition to competition without spectators, including indoor sport


www.covid-19.sa.gov.au...

After this, mass gatherings and border openings will be considered based on the situation of the time. There are no timelines for that but it is likely these will be the last measures lifted. I wanted to post this update to show that the virus can be controlled, and the lockdowns do have an end date. There is light at the end of the tunnel, just be patient all.



posted on May, 8 2020 @ 02:30 AM
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originally posted by: harold223

Now I agree that this may be a long shot, but models are showing that it is possible. It still does not address the fact that if successful, then what? Quarantine and mandatory testing at border entry for international arrivals for 1 year, 2, 10 years? An interesting prospect.

Indeed... then what? There certainly isn't enough tests available to test everyone coming into Australia if we open the borders back up, and even if there was the tests are known to not be entirely accurate. We probably could eradicate Covid-19 in Australia because our population is so sparsely distributed and a lot of water separates us from any other nation. But we certainly cannot eradicate it from the world, so unless we want to keep our borders permanently closed there is no way to eradicate it even in Australia. There will indeed be an end to this nonsense, and it will occur when we stop fearmongering and realize not everything in nature can be controlled.


originally posted by: LordAhriman

The jobs will come back, those 63 people won't. How many deaths would it be if they didn't shut anything down? The answer is Sweden.

The answer is we simply don't know because Sweden was still hit considerably less hard than several nations which did have strict lock-downs, so your logic is completely flawed. My guess would be a few hundred people would have died, and as cold as it may sound I would still prefer to have a functioning economy, because it's very likely the amount of suffering and death which has occurred and will continue to occur long into the future will far outweigh that caused by Covid-19 if we had only told the highest risk groups to self-isolate like Sweden did.
edit on 8/5/2020 by ChaoticOrder because: (no reason given)



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