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Please explain: why is CFR more interesting than looking at concluded cases?

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posted on Feb, 24 2020 @ 12:00 PM
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One thing I constantly notice on twitter is the eccoing of CFR as a correct means of displaying mortality.

But from my point of view it doesnt make any sense to do so.

1. If you look up mortality of sars you get a comparison of concluded cases and a percentage of 9,4% dead.
2. Using CFR as a reference... if the trend continues as is, then we will slowly see a rising CFR which will be posted by the media as a rising mortality
3. The mortality doesnt change during the outbreak. Basically everytime 90 people has recovered 10 has died. When 180 people has survived 20 has died. When 24.000 has survived, 2.500 died.
4. Again... when all cases are resolved; dead or survived, and noone is left infected... what then? Then its perfectly fine to compare dead to alive......? Why wasnt it before?? And poof.... mortality jumps from 3% to 10%???

It makes no sense to me.... so what is cfr for?

It would make more sense to compared only concluded cases and then update the number as it rolls on....




posted on Feb, 24 2020 @ 12:09 PM
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a reply to: flice

Please explain: What is CFR? Council for Foreign relations? Code of Federal Regulations?
Why it CFR more interesting than anything?



posted on Feb, 24 2020 @ 12:19 PM
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a reply to: Sookiechacha

I had the same question!


A case fatality rate (CFR, also case fatality risk, or case fatality ratio) is the ratio of deaths from a certain disease to the total number of people diagnosed with this disease for a certain period of time. ... CFR can only be considered final when all the cases have been resolved (either died or recovered).

Case fatality rate - Wikipedia



posted on Feb, 24 2020 @ 12:23 PM
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a reply to: flice

If you're saying that it is premature, and therefore inaccurate, to determine true "case fatality rate" while people are still sick and/or becoming sick, then I agree. By definition, case fatality rate can only be determined after all cases have been resolved.

At best, tracking numbers in real time can give us some valuable information, but not totality of information.

For example, such numbers could tell us who are most susceptible to fatality, perhaps why they are most susceptible as well, and therefore efforts can be focused as needed and appropriate for that subset of patients.



posted on Feb, 24 2020 @ 05:03 PM
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a reply to: flice
What is CFR?



posted on Feb, 24 2020 @ 05:39 PM
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My take is that the Chinese CFR is higher than they are claiming. The CHicom government has consistently lied and obfuscated since day One.

The fatlity rate outside of China has held steady with the 2% or so as it IMHO represents a collective healthcare system that has yet to be overwhelmed like the Chinese one



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