The stock market is predicting a crash event

Since I've been day trading and options trading I've learned A LOT about the market, and I mean a real lot. One of the things I've learned is that the stock market intuitively predicts the future.





Ok, here I present to you the TLT and gold charts. TLT is an inverse bond yield ETF that tracks when people start buying bonds. For those of you who don't know, the bond yield goes down when people buy bonds.

You can see the initial bond spike when the Federal Reserve first dropped rated in July. If you can options trade keep that in mind. Similarly you can see the same kind of move in the above gold chart.

Then, you can see TLT and gold enter into a period of consolidation.

What is consolidation?

Consolidation is a technical analysis term referring to security prices oscillating within a corridor and is generally interpreted as market indecisiveness.

I have yellow trendlines around the consolidation period. This is typically seen as bull flag pattern.

This is what a stock looks like before a major move up or down. Anyone who has been trading long enough knows that because it's a bull flag that doesn't necessarily mean it's going up or down so please save me those arguments.

However, what we can see here is known as the Efficient Market Hypothesis.

The efficient market hypothesis (EMH), alternatively known as the efficient market theory, is a hypothesis that states that share prices reflect all information and consistent alpha generation is impossible. According to the EMH, stocks always trade at their fair value on exchanges, making it impossible for investors to purchase undervalued stocks or sell stocks for inflated prices. Therefore, it should be impossible to outperform the overall market through expert stock selection or market timing, and the only way an investor can obtain higher returns is by purchasing riskier investments.

So, now refer back to the gold and bonds chart. Notice the consolidation period and period of uncertainty. Then, after consolidation a take off or break out in value.

This is easy to see in hindsight. Did the market know about the Wuhan Virus beforehand? No.

What the market did was predict moments of instability. It's almost like astrology.


Looking at my above charts we can see gold and bonds entering another period of growth, another event coming on our current timeline. They are about to breakout again however, what will be the cause of the breakout?

yes, we went long bonds and Gold and now energy a week ago....using treasury cash balances. selling equities....till mid march according to my predictive model

I have a bunch of physical gold and silver, but I missed out on the stock market during Trumps term. I probably lost 150- 300 thousand in gains. I was worried about him, and messed up bad. How will my gold and silver do?

a reply to: GBP/JPY

buy LEAPs 1 year out $10 OTM... if your a trader

originally posted by: visitedbythem
I have a bunch of physical gold and silver, but I missed out on the stock market during Trumps term. I probably lost 150- 300 thousand in gains. I was worried about him, and messed up bad. How will my gold and silver do?

good because the Fed will drop rates again, now is the time to double down, average in

What are you investing in now

a reply to: visitedbythem

I have several GLD call options (152 and 148 strike), and 300 SPY puts

long term I have CTL and GE

Oh, I have credit spreads on NLOK as well but you are to late to the party for that one, I'll open more spreads on Monday

thanks

a reply to: visitedbythem

np I would be interested in hearing more of your POV as well as I want to hear from other actual investors and not arm chair critics

How does this play into the other thread and the planets aligning? Couldn’t be anything to do with AI propping already maladjusted and rigged algorithms, could it?

a reply to: toysforadults

Straight up I have to say I'm not an investor. I have however learned over the years that "the markets" can only ever be reactionary. Prediction is not an option. This is always classically demonstrated when economists tell you why something happened.......strange that they never tell you when somethings about to happen.

It's almost like astrology.

Personally I would not have included that, you've still got time to add it to the edit list.

what will be the cause of the breakout?

There can only be one answer to that.....

ALIENS

originally posted by: slatesteam
How does this play into the other thread and the planets aligning? Couldn’t be anything to do with AI propping already maladjusted and rigged algorithms, could it?

great question

this has everything to do with the energy of the conjunctions happening in capricorn

a reply to: myselfaswell

the "markets" are not one singular entity

there are several forces at work here so while the majority of traders are reactionary the market itself is not, the market is about how people "feel"

you "feel" about your strategy and investments so in a way the market is a collective intuitive psychic

Question.
If few buyers, doesn't the market reflect that?
Also, how does one value the stock of a company these days that 51% of their business is Chinese,Malaysia , Japanese, Vietnam and Thailand market?
I just can't see anyone buying stocks that are here on this forum. If for example, Hong Kong which is more open to fairness,shows a "true" downturn in buying, then I would go with them facts and not of China or even Wall Street or whatever it is called these days.
The only stock I'd be buying these days would be what I could put in the cupboard and it wouldn't be paper, well, it would be toilet paper I guess.

from the articles I read... the Japan auto makers are pushing hard on the China leadership to get the auto parts manufacturing back on line ~immediately~

bring in the line workers to produce the product, and to-hell-with-their-health, or avoiding coronavirus infection

I think the China policy makers are just about to order the factory closures to cease & get back to making those parts/components so the Japan assembly lines can resume operations

the Auto lines do not build up inventory, they rely on 'just-in-time' supply lines so that money isn't tied up,,, or improved or lower priced components become available (and the auto builders miss out on profits


one hell of a situation huh

originally posted by: St Udio

from the articles I read... the Japan auto makers are pushing hard on the China leadership to get the auto parts manufacturing back on line ~immediately~

bring in the line workers to produce the product, and to-hell-with-their-health, or avoiding coronavirus infection

I think the China policy makers are just about to order the factory closures to cease & get back to making those parts/components so the Japan assembly lines can resume operations

the Auto lines do not build up inventory, they rely on 'just-in-time' supply lines so that money isn't tied up,,, or improved or lower priced components become available (and the auto builders miss out on profits


one hell of a situation huh

Funny, I heard (in Japan ) this morning that Toyota, Mazda and even car companies are telling their employees not to turn to work till furthest notice. Did hear anything about China telling people to "work". I get my news in Japanese on Japanese tv here in Japan. So, I'm a bit puzzled.

originally posted by: musicismagic

originally posted by: St Udio

from the articles I read... the Japan auto makers are pushing hard on the China leadership to get the auto parts manufacturing back on line ~immediately~

bring in the line workers to produce the product, and to-hell-with-their-health, or avoiding coronavirus infection

I think the China policy makers are just about to order the factory closures to cease & get back to making those parts/components so the Japan assembly lines can resume operations

the Auto lines do not build up inventory, they rely on 'just-in-time' supply lines so that money isn't tied up,,, or improved or lower priced components become available (and the auto builders miss out on profits


one hell of a situation huh

I get my news in Japanese on Japanese tv here in Japan. So, I'm a bit puzzled.

That's about as fresh as it gets! 😂

Im kind of mad at Japan. Ive worked at a Japanese steel mill in California for 39 years, and they recently put up cameras, reduced my pay by 23K, and brought in bad controlling management. I work for a spin off of Sumitimo. They used to be good, but now they suck eggs. I hate em

keep dropping these nuggets man, its great information from someone on/in the frontlines.

originally posted by: cenpuppie
keep dropping these nuggets man, its great information from someone on/in the frontlines.

here we are


here I am