Possible Hurricane to hit Lousiana this week

Woo Hoo!!! Hurricane Party in New Orleans!

Might have to make a special drive home, Wed night!

originally posted by: Irishhaf
Until it hits its at best a theory, My dad told me of a hurricane that they swore up and down was going to hit tampa and clearwater (he lived in clearwater at the time) the eye came right up to tampa bay and then it did a u turn and went back into the gulf.

Just be ready and if it gets close and you are in a flood prone area go visit family further in land.

Yup. It's going to go towards the warmest areas.. A hurricane's path of least resistance, if you will.

originally posted by: TXTriker
We are currently getting a tropical wave that is dumping pretty good rain. They are considering a flash flood watch if it hasn't already been issued. I am west of Houston. There are several models putting it in at LA and some having it follow the track of the current wave which is right into Houston or Galveston. Still too early to tell but we did prep the generator today just in case.

You never know what the storms will do. Ike was supposed to be a direct hit but bobbled just before landfall which changed the rain area and the storm path and took out Bolivar. While we are at least 60-70 miles from the coast and west, we still had significant damage in our area and were without power for over a week.

Rita changed at the last minute as well and caught the Sabine River area and east Texas off guard. My in-laws were without power for several weeks from that one. And the evacuation was a disaster in itself.

Just be prepared because you never know.

Exactly. I've seen them hit land, break up, reverse and become a bad ass storm. It's not very uncommon. Katrina was one of those.

You can divert some of that rain to Austin if you want. We need it too. It always gets on the verge of rain but never seems to happen Though I will say, the last few days didn't feel all that bad. Sucks that we only get one full week of spring and one full week of fall, lol.

The upper air steering is similarly depicted from all the weather models, the storm will bring it near the northern gulf coast on Thursday.
Could be storm surge issues just to the east of landfall which is the major concern.

Just watched the local l weather. Looks like the center of the track is in at LA and then turns west and runs into OK.

Gordon has formed. Now the center is over south Florida.

The NHC is still calling for a 60mph tropical storm at land fall in Louisiana.

The storm is moving fast and may run into shear before landfall. This will minimize the chances of this becoming a hurricane.

Cary's Fort off Key Largo just reported 56mph sustained winds!

twitter.com...

Gordon very well may become a hurricane if this trend continues.

Those in Mississippi and Lousiana coastal areas need to monitor Gordon closely. The latest advisory from the NHC is due any minute.

originally posted by: StallionDuck

originally posted by: TXTriker
We are currently getting a tropical wave that is dumping pretty good rain. They are considering a flash flood watch if it hasn't already been issued. I am west of Houston. There are several models putting it in at LA and some having it follow the track of the current wave which is right into Houston or Galveston. Still too early to tell but we did prep the generator today just in case.

You never know what the storms will do. Ike was supposed to be a direct hit but bobbled just before landfall which changed the rain area and the storm path and took out Bolivar. While we are at least 60-70 miles from the coast and west, we still had significant damage in our area and were without power for over a week.

Rita changed at the last minute as well and caught the Sabine River area and east Texas off guard. My in-laws were without power for several weeks from that one. And the evacuation was a disaster in itself.

Just be prepared because you never know.

Exactly. I've seen them hit land, break up, reverse and become a bad ass storm. It's not very uncommon. Katrina was one of those.

You can divert some of that rain to Austin if you want. We need it too. It always gets on the verge of rain but never seems to happen

Though I will say, the last few days didn't feel all that bad. Sucks that we only get one full week of spring and one full week of fall, lol.

I hear you about the rain. My area has a "bubble" over it. We can literally watch storms on radar approach, split, go around us and then come back together. In the summer it takes some thing like this tropical wave to break the bubble. Hope you get rain soon!

No discussion yet from the NHC. The hurricane hunter is almost to the center. A lot of us are scratching our heads because the NHC is still calling Gordon a 45mph storm when surface observations indicate a stronger storm.

A hurricane watch has been issued as of 11am:

The Storm Surge Watch has been extended eastward from the
Mississippi-Alabama border to Navarre, Florida.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued from the Mouth of the Pearl River
to the Alabama-Florida Border.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended eastward to the
Okaloosa-Walton County Line.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Shell Beach to Mississippi-Alabama border

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* West of Shell Beach to the Mouth of the Mississippi River
* East of the Mississippi-Alabama border to Navarre

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama-Florida Border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Golden Beach to Bonita Beach
* Craig Key to Ocean Reef, including Florida Bay
* Okaloosa-Walton County Line westward to east of Morgan City,
Louisiana, including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

The 11am discussion is out. Now the NHC is predicting a 70mph storm at landfall(74mph or 65kts is a hurricane).

Key Messages:

1. Gordon will bring heavy rainfall and tropical storm conditions
to portions of South Florida and the Florida Keys today and a
Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for these areas.

2. Gordon is expected to bring life-threatening storm surge to
portions of the central Gulf Coast and a Storm Surge Warning has
been issued from the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi-
Alabama border. Residents in these areas should listen to advice
from their local officials and all preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

3. A Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect for
portions of the central Gulf Coast. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to reach those areas late Tuesday, with hurricane
conditions possible in the watch area.

4. Heavy rainfall from Gordon will affect southern Alabama, southern
Mississippi and Louisiana, where where totals could reach as high as 8
inches. This rainfall could cause flash flooding.

a reply to: jrod

Some of the models are forecasting it to move so fast that it makes landfall as early as tomorrow night.
Much better scenario since it would not have time to develop into a hurricane by then.

a reply to: Cauliflower

That is a plus. The center just emerged in the gulf. So far Gordon has a relatively high pressure 1010mb, but i expected that to start dropping.

There is still the potential for rapid intensification.

a reply to: jrod

That is one of the biggest problems with forecasting if the storm is intensifying as it makes landfall.
6 hours longer over water with a 3 mb/hr pressure drop would create a more serious hurricane.

originally posted by: TXTriker

originally posted by: StallionDuck

originally posted by: TXTriker
We are currently getting a tropical wave that is dumping pretty good rain. They are considering a flash flood watch if it hasn't already been issued. I am west of Houston. There are several models putting it in at LA and some having it follow the track of the current wave which is right into Houston or Galveston. Still too early to tell but we did prep the generator today just in case.

You never know what the storms will do. Ike was supposed to be a direct hit but bobbled just before landfall which changed the rain area and the storm path and took out Bolivar. While we are at least 60-70 miles from the coast and west, we still had significant damage in our area and were without power for over a week.

Rita changed at the last minute as well and caught the Sabine River area and east Texas off guard. My in-laws were without power for several weeks from that one. And the evacuation was a disaster in itself.

Just be prepared because you never know.

Exactly. I've seen them hit land, break up, reverse and become a bad ass storm. It's not very uncommon. Katrina was one of those.

You can divert some of that rain to Austin if you want. We need it too. It always gets on the verge of rain but never seems to happen

Though I will say, the last few days didn't feel all that bad. Sucks that we only get one full week of spring and one full week of fall, lol.

I hear you about the rain. My area has a "bubble" over it. We can literally watch storms on radar approach, split, go around us and then come back together. In the summer it takes some thing like this tropical wave to break the bubble. Hope you get rain soon!

Same to ya. I think the last good rain was when the hurricane blew through just south of us, was it last year? I enjoyed those days. Reminded me of home

Though, we might get lucky in the coming few days... Finger's crossed!

Just got an inch of rain along the central Texas coast area. Doubt we will get much, if any, from the TS if it tracks as predicted.

originally posted by: roadgravel
Just got an inch of rain along the central Texas coast area. Doubt we will get much, if any, from the TS if it tracks as predicted.

Yeah i see that churning down there. That's the rain we're hoping to get here because of that swirling going on down there. So far it's barely skirting us.

The coast always gets the good stuff. I think that's the only thing I really miss about home, being here in Austin. Thunder and Rain and lots of it!

a reply to: StallionDuck

I'm about 50 miles in. I think the low is headed northeast so that will most likely be it. Sun is back.

500 PM EDT Mon Sep 03 2018

Although the
inner-core structure has eroded somewhat, outer banding features
have improved and now extend as far north as central and northern
Florida. The GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS intensity models continue to
indicate that westerly to northwesterly wind shear of 10-15 kt is
expected to affect Gordon for the next 36 hours, a flow pattern that
would generally hinder development.

However, the global models'
upper-level wind fields show Gordon remaining near or underneath a
synoptic-scale upper-level anticyclone, a more favorable pattern
that supports at least steady strengthening. Since Gordon will be
moving over very warm sea-surface temperatures of about 30 C, the
cyclone is forecast to reach hurricane strength in 24-36 hours, just
before landfall. For that reason, a Hurricane Warning has been
issued for portions of the central Gulf Coast.

It is about to make landfall in a few hours, likely in Alabama has a strong tropical storm. While it appears to be stengthening, it only has a few hours before landfall.

The pandhandle of Florida will get the worst of it...flooding is the major threat as well as isolated tornadoes.

a reply to: jrod

Trust me I have lived on the gulf all my life.

This is nothing.

Slow news day stuff.