posted on Jan, 20 2005 @ 12:47 PM
The US National Intelligence Council’s 2020 Project Report gives us insights in to what it sees the world to be in 2020. Such studies by USA are
done very openly but there is always a hidden agenda and Indian Intelligence can learn something from the report. It helps USA to chart its future
course by outlining avoidable pitfalls. During the Second World War, Winston Churchill often told his intelligence gatherers, "Tell me the facts as
they are", and set the pace for the war. In any case the briefings were in secret.
In India's case because of over secrecy and a lack cohesion between the various INT Agencies which are staffed by IPS officers on deputation, the INT
reports even by bright officials were always tailored in double speak so that the reader could do most of the interpretation to suit himself. Even
today the situation has not changed and ruling and opposition MPs have few insights into basic INT inputs and lean more on media reports, which are
seldom accurate. This is a trait that needs to be guarded against today. In fact one assessment done in 1988 by some bright service officers summed up
that India had more serious internal threats in OP PAWAN than external THREATS. The report was thrown out of the window as it would have meant a lower
Defence budget –– it did not suit the readers!
In the US report it has been clearly stated that China and India will rise as powers to be reckoned with but there were pitfalls. In our case we have
to solve the Kashmir imbroglio with Pakistan as starters by 2010.There will be more global firms and technology will spread. Japan is an example of
technology spread –– but the country went into recession as it did not export arms, and its energy bill rose. Aging populations will be a drain.
India has a young population but it will have join the defence export market through greater liberalisation if it is to achieve some status. The state
of terrorism and nuclear proliferation has been given thought and there will definitely be more nuclear powers as we see the case of Iran unfold. USA
will be vulnerable but it will continue to be No. 1 and there is debate on what EU will be and whether it can achieve super power status by 2020.
Read the whole report : www.indiadefence.com...
[edit on 20-1-2005 by Stealth Spy]