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originally posted by: TiredofControlFreaks
a reply to: mbkennel
oh so we can't "save the planet" until 7 billion people either freeze or boil themselves and do without cooked food for a year.
Good luck with that
originally posted by: Nathan-D
First off, they're not observations. Screwing around with data is altering the observations. Secondly, while atmospheric CO2 is increasing, dissolved CO2 is increasing at a similar pace. If it's supposed to be responsible for the increase in CO2, please explain how.
I should point out that this was data collected from one station in Hawaii in 1973. That was 43 years ago. Anyway, the ocean is a big place and that one station probably represents 0.0001% of the entire ocean. Unless we are willing and able to cover the ocean’s entire surface in a rather fine-meshed network our readings of PCO2 from only one station are liable to be too inaccurate to be useful and to be misleading accordingly. Furthermore the Hawaii ALOHA station is located in relatively shallow coastal waters and it has been shown that biological activity in coastal waters can significantly affect the the concentration of dissolved PCO2 (Evans et al 2011). Has this been considered?
originally posted by: Nathan-D
We have estimates of how much carbon we emit. Note that this is in carbon, not carbon dioxide. Transform that data into CO2 to calculate changes; O=15.9994 C=12.0107; CO2 is 27.2912 % carbon by mass, so (for example) 9 gigatonnes of carbon emissions ~ 33 gigatonnes of CO2 emissions. We can transform that as well:
Earth's atmosphere: 5,148,000 gigatonnes (Gt) = a
Mean molar mass of the atmosphere: 28.97g/mole = b
Carbon Dioxide (CO2) molar mass: 44.0095 g/mole = c
Atmospheric CO2 parts per million (ppm), June 2016: 406.81 ppm = d
Atmospheric CO2 ppm, June 2015: 402.80 ppm = e
Atmospheric CO2 mass, June 2015 (a * (c / b) * d): 3,150.1116 Gt = f
Atmospheric CO2 mass, June 2016 (a * (c / b) * e): 3,181.4719 Gt = g
Atmospheric CO2 mass increase (g - f): 31.3603 Gt
Your figure of 31Gts is merely the increase in atmospheric CO2 from 2015 to 2016. That does not mean that the human contribution of 33Gts is the cause of the increase. You have to understand Henry’s law in order to understand why. In order to explain how human CO2 is accumulating in the atmosphere the IPCC apply the Revelle Factor which contradicts Henry’s law. Henry’s law determines a specific fixed ‘partitioning ratio’ between the amount of CO2 residing in the atmosphere and the amount that will be dissolved in the oceans at a given temperature at equilibrium. At the current mean ocean temperature of ~15°C (at the surface), that partitioning ratio comes out to be ~1:50. This implies that if humans added 33Gts of CO2 to the atmosphere/year the amount remaining in the atmosphere upon equilibrium would be 33/50 = 0.66Gts/year. This is equivalent to about 0.085ppmv/year. Now the partitioning ratio is temperature-dependent. So if the oceans were to warm to say ~20°C (a 5°C temperature increase), the partitioning ratio would rise to ~1:40 and CO2 would be released from the oceans to be permanently added to the resident CO2 greenhouse.
Here is a thought-experiment to illustrate the point: Say we had a can of soda-pop with an average temperature of 15°C and added 100 grams of CO2 into the head-space above the water. The CO2 would rapidly equilibrate with the water until 98 grams has been dissolved and 2 grams resided in the head-space in accordance with the 1:50 partitioning ratio at that temperature. Now imagine at the same time we increased the water-temperature by 5°C and thereupon shifted the partitioning ratio to 1:40. Instead of 0.98 grams being dissolved into the water 97.5 grams would be dissolved, leaving 2.5 grams in the head-space. At the same time, some CO2 would be released from the water due to the temperature-change, let’s assume 10 grams. The end result is that the water has simultaneously absorbed 97.5% (essentially all) of the CO2 we added while increasing the CO2 in the head-space due to the temperature-change. This is why the mass-balance argument (as it is being inappropriately applied by warmists) is invalid.
originally posted by: TiredofControlFreaks
a reply to: Greven
I believe that it has much more to do with the oceans than with any part of the atmosphere. Remember that the oceans comprise something over 70 % of the earth. A far greater part than land.
I think we need to really understand ocean currents if we want to understand climate.
Particulary, the PDO occurring in the largest ocean and the AMO occurring the atlantic.
For the record - with the ending of El Nino - both are cooling at the same time. What will develop from this cannot be atmospheric warming.
I think we are seeing the last great hurrah for AGW.
originally posted by: TiredofControlFreaks
a reply to: jrod
It takes even more to suggest that CO2 rises are from anthropogenic sources while use of fossil fuels has remained flat since 2013.
originally posted by: Specimen
In the GTA in Canada, the winter was a mild one this year and yet we still had ass biting wind chill, not the first time though we didn't have any snow but it still rained. It hasn't rain much other then monumental flash showers, and only had a few thunderstorms, and there are large patches of bash grass almost every where. We even almost had freezing rain that almost encased everything in ice again this year, but luck would have it, it thawed. Something similar happened a 2 or 3 years ago, but everything was in ice for a week on X-mas holiday week 2013, I think it was around the same that solar flare happened. The previous generation of the area never saw anything like it before.
It was beautiful to see the trees like it but it was deadly.
IMO, I'd say both people, and natural occurrences are the cause, due to how imbalanced the ecosystem has been, but all the while the climate has it ups and downs of hot an cold. I think the CO2 would be more of temporary problem if we could just shut down the National Machines for a while and let the air cool filter out, but would not be a remedy for ice that been around for thousands of years can do.
It's pretty damn simple - our carbon emissions are primarily burnt, creating a whole lot of carbon dioxide out of that emitted carbon and the oxygen in the atmosphere. Since that oxygen has to come from somewhere, we are lowering the oxygen in the atmosphere. How well does that fit with your ideas about Henry’s law?
A common argument that the atmospheric CO2 increase is anthropogenic is the observed decrease in 14CO2 in the atmosphere. Anthropogenic CO2 is depleted in 14C and so increasing it will lead to decreased 14CO2 levels. However the fact that 14CO2 is decreasing is not proof that the increase in CO2 is anthropogenic because 14CO2 in the atmosphere would be expected to decrease simply by virtue of our emissions increasing and the atmospheric CO2 mass increasing. As proof of this last statement I offer the following argument which I have already rehearsed above and so will just repeat it briefly here for now. It goes as follows: From IPCC’s AR5 (2013) we have: Human CO2 emissions = 33Gts/year, natural CO2 emissions = 724Gt/year, and natural absorption = 745Gts/year. Meanwhile the atmospheric CO2 mass stands at about 3,120 (400ppmv) which gives us a residence time of 3,120/745 = 4.2 years. This means the total amount of anthropogenic CO2 residing in the atmosphere before absorption is 33*4.2 = 138.6Gts = 17.8ppmv. Assuming that the atmospheric CO2 mass is increasing at the rate of 2ppmv/year (15.6Gts) then by the end of 5 years that would have increased the residence time to 3198/745 = 4.3 years. Assuming also that our emissions increase from 33Gts to 36Gts then the amount of anthropogenic CO2 residing in the atmosphere before absorption would be 36*4.3 = 154.8Gts = 19.8ppmv (which is of course higher than 17.8ppmv). This illustrates that 14CO2 levels decreasing in the atmosphere is simply a consequence of the atmospheric CO2 mass increasing (which increases residence time) together with our emissions increasing, and is not ‘proof’ that humans are driving the increase.
How well does that fit with your ideas about Henry’s law?
Oh, and here's another quick fact: photosynthesis does not turn CO2 into air that we breathe. Read that again - twice if you have to. Yes, photosynthesis produces O2, but that O2 is from (multiple) H2O.
I think mbkennel dealt with this sufficiently.
originally posted by: TiredofControlFreaks
a reply to: Greven
greven
Thank you for proving that burning fossil fuels is the source of CO2 in the atmosphere. But I don't believe that is the issue. The issue is "how sensitive is the climate to the CO2 forcing".
Tired of Control Freaks
originally posted by: TiredofControlFreaks
a reply to: mbkennel
Why ever do you think the acid rain issue was resolved?
Tired of Control Freaks
originally posted by: Nathan-D
[
My ideas? You mean the idea that water releases CO2 when warmed or the idea that to maintain equilibrium water absorbs CO2 when you increase the partial pressure in accordance with Le Chatelier’s principle? Those are not so much ‘my ideas’, as they are well-established tenets of orthodox science. To calculate an increase in CO2 from a change in water-temperature you can just apply the Van’t-Hoff equation, and while my calculations differ from Jaworowski’s, it can still be shown that some of the increase in atmospheric CO2 would have come from ocean warming. Humans are not entirely responsible. That’s the point.
With respect, I don’t think my question has been ‘sufficiently dealt with’. He posted a map showing Argo floats and I asked for a graph showing decreased PCO2(aq) from those 3,000 floats. The only graph I have seen of decreased concentrations of PCO2(aq) is the Hawaii time-series.
Climatological Distributions of pH, pCO2, Total CO2, Alkalinity, and CaCO3 Saturation in the Global Surface Ocean
by Taro Takahashi,1, Stewart C. Sutherland1, David W. Chipman1, John G. Goddard1, Timothy Newberger2 and Colm Sweeney2
Prepared by Alex Kozyr3
1Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964, USA
2Cooperative Institute in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309, USA
3Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA
dataNDP-094 Database Data and Maps PDF file NDP-094 (PDF format) ODV collection of the database
image
Abstract
Climatological mean monthly distributions of pH in the total H+ scale, total CO2 concentration (TCO2), and the degree of CaCO3 saturation for the global surface ocean waters (excluding coastal areas) are calculated using a data set for pCO2, alkalinity and nutrient concentrations in surface waters (depths less than 50 m), which is built upon the GLODAP, CARINA and LDEO database. The mutual consistency among these measured parameters is demonstrated using the inorganic carbon chemistry model with the dissociation constants for carbonic acid by Lueker et al. (2000) and for boric acid by Dickson (1990). The global ocean is divided into 24 regions, and the linear potential alkalinity (total alkalinity + nitrate) versus salinity relationships are established for each region. The mean monthly distributions of pH and carbon chemistry parameters for the reference year 2005 are computed using the climatological mean monthly pCO2 data adjusted to a reference year 2005 and the alkalinity estimated from the potential alkalinity versus salinity relationships. The climatological monthly mean values of pCO2 over the global ocean are compiled for a 4° x 5° grid for the reference year 2005, and the gridded data for each of 12 months are included in this database. This is updated version of Takahashi et al. (2009) for the reference year 2000 representing non-El Niño years using a database of about 6.5 million pCO2 data (less coastal areas of North and South America) observed in 1957-2012 (Takahashi et al., 2013). The equatorial zone (4°N-4°S) of the Pacific is excluded from the analysis because of the large interannual changes associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation events. The pH thus calculated ranges from 7.9 to 8.2. Lower values are located in the upwelling regions in the tropical Pacific and in the Arabian and Bering Seas; and higher values are found in the subpolar and polar waters during the spring-summer months of intense photosynthetic production. The vast areas of subtropical oceans have seasonally varying pH values ranging from 8.05 during warmer months to 8.15 during colder months. The warm tropical and subtropical waters are supersaturated by a factor of as much as 4.2 with respect to aragonite and 6.3 for calcite, whereas the cold subpolar and polar waters are less supersaturated only by 1.2 for aragonite and 2 for calcite because of the lower pH values resulting from greater TCO2 concentrations. In the western Arctic Ocean, aragonite undersaturation is observed.
That would be interesting if oceans were getting less acidic and carbon is being removed from the ocean and deposited into the atmosphere, but that is the opposite of observed fact. Of course there is a turnover of man-emitted and pre-human atmospheric carbon to and from the ocean & atmosphere.
Just one publication. I don't know the details of what really went into this but the idea that oceans are acidifying as a commonly understood observational fact is not based on one observation from Hawaii. Really, do you believe professional scientists are that naive?
Detailed tests may be made by comparing the monthly observations made during the Bermuda Atlantic Time Series (BATS) program (Bates et al., 2012), the Hawaii Ocean Time Series (HOT) program (Dore et al., 2009; Fujieki et al., 2012), and the European Time Series in the Canary Islands (ESTOC) program (Santana-Casiano et al., 2007; Gonzalez-Davila and Santana-Casiano, 2009).
originally posted by: Nathan-D
That would be interesting if oceans were getting less acidic and carbon is being removed from the ocean and deposited into the atmosphere, but that is the opposite of observed fact. Of course there is a turnover of man-emitted and pre-human atmospheric carbon to and from the ocean & atmosphere.
I am not saying that there must be less dissolved CO2 in the oceans. The oceans can release CO2 when warmed and at the same time absorb more human CO2 than they have released, as pointed out on page 26. But my argument here is that some of the CO2 increase is probably natural.
I think the assumption that human emissions are solely responsible for the entire atmospheric CO2 increase is doubtful,
If oceans release additional carbon from global warming from human activity [they are absorbing at present], then that is a positive feedback to increase sensitivity of anthropogenic greenhouse emissions.