FG Opinion: No Matter Who Wins the LRS-B Contract, the Industrial Base is Threatened

Flight Global has come out to say no matter who wins the LRS-B contract, the US aerospace industrial base will take a hit. If Northrop wins, Boeing is in trouble (on its defense side) and if Lockheed/Boeing wins, Northrop is in dire straits.

Its nice to see the analysts catching up with the, erm, wisdom of the board here.

a reply to: anzha

Not to worry. It has been long rumored that all of the big three, with the input of GE the power plant builder, are well established behind the scenes building the secret black triangles so often spotted in the air over the US and the UK.

Idle speculation? Perhaps, but that would mean that the triangles are alien craft. Which would you prefer?

a reply to: anzha

If LM and Boeing win, it has been my gut feeling, that Boeing will take a shot at absorbing Northrup's aircraft manufacturing division. It makes sense for Boeing to try to increase it's defense systems clout in order to compete with LM in the coming 6th gen. platform war and others. They would be the only ones large enough and with deepest pockets to pull it off.
However, it is my gut feeling that the government will do everything within it's power to prevent this from happening. The next incoming administration will have a lot to do with it as well. In the end, NG won't go away just evolve into something a little different.

If NG wins, you will see Boeing, for the most part, abandon the military fighter/bomber segment after the F-18 and F-15 runs are exhausted. They may dabble here and there in smaller projects, or cooperate on this and that but most of the big future contracts will be between LM and NG. This won't effect Boeing's commercial side of the business. They will still be the worlds premier airliner builder.

a reply to: Sammamishman

The Pentagon is going to stomp hard on any more consolidation. According to multiple sources Northrop has enough work to get them to the F-XX/F/A-XX program between their known and classified programs.

Now with the additional F-18s Boeing should have their fighter lines open just long enough to get to that program as well.

a reply to: Zaphod58

Boeing seems to have flubbed the Kuwait F-18 buy though.

originally posted by: Daalder
I do not care about killingmachines!
How about a yopic on sexmachines?
Anybody in the US care about the latest sexdevices?
I mean...with 400 million Americans atleast someone must care more about life then about killing.
How about a real pracemachine?

Wrong forum bro.

a reply to: Daalder

You're in the wrong forum to spout that.

a reply to: anzha

That wasn't the only one. The Navy is adding Growlers and a few more Rhinos. That pushes the line closure past 2017 and into early 2019 or so.

a reply to: Zaphod58

Looking back on it now, I wonder where we might be today in terms of these lingering consolidation issues if the DOD had decided to split the JSF proposal the way they did the lightweight fighter competition. Keep the F-35 design for the USMC/UK as a VTOL, stealth F-111 of sorts, and keep the F-32 for the USAF and the USN as the stealth A-7 that they both actually needed.

Hindsight is 20/20, but keeping avionics and powerplants shared between two different optimized airframes that more closely provide what their users actually need, all while keeping TWO assembly lines open, in hindsight, would have made a lot more sense.

a reply to: Barnalby

That defeats the thesis of the JSF: common elements so everyone saves money.

The underlying thesis of the JSF turned out to be false. Save for the Marines. The USMC got their bird there would have been no other way of getting. Ditto for the Royal Navy for that matter.

a reply to: anzha

I'm a bit worried about this actually. From my sources, the landscape could become very dire after the award. I know there are those here who believe that the DoD doesn't want any more consolidation but it could very well be entirely out of their hands.

6th Gen and F/A-XX, F-X are too long down the pipe to hold your breath for. There simply won't be enough work to go around and designers are going to start leaving for other programs. Once that happens, good luck getting them back.

Boeing also has something neat going in the vertical lift arena for the Army and JSOC that will keep the plant open beyond the Growler orders. It will be the next big project we are talking about this time next year.

a reply to: aholic

Sixth gen is much farther along than people think. Yes the program is officially still 5+ years away, but it's going to be handled similar to the bomber.

As for the vertical lift program Boeing has another tilt rotor underway, against a larger version of the S-97.

There are always Space Programs to go to...

a reply to: Blackfinger

Oh god, the amount of money Boeing got for the X-37B is unfathomable.

a reply to: Zaphod58

Other than ADVENT and successors (obvious), what will sixth gen F and F/A series have above the Raptor & LightningII?

a reply to: mbkennel

Directed energy seems to be a prerequisite along with adaptive optics and active stealth. Oh yeah, and also EW that could take out a small town.

a reply to: mbkennel

Self healing skin is something they're developing, EW systems that make QUARTZ look like first generation EW, sensor fusion that makes the F-35 look like an F-4...

Insider has told me that the delay has had everything to do with the USAF trying to not consolidate the industry base. Which reads; there might be some very interesting perks attached to raw end of this deal. Congress won't be happy.

originally posted by: mbkennel
a reply to: Zaphod58

Other than ADVENT and successors (obvious), what will sixth gen F and F/A series have above the Raptor & LightningII?

6th gen fighter aircraft (current concept referred to a Next Gen Air Dominance or NGAD) are probably going to embrace technologies such as:

* Air Superiority platform (as the term Air Dominance infers)

* Variable cycle engines (think ADVENT), enabling greater fuel efficiency, range and the possibility of supercruise 2.0..

* Separate airframes for USAF and Navy.
Regarding commonality of airframes, it was the theory of the Pentagon that a single airframe would save the DoD money but the lesson learned is that using one frame for both services increases development costs exponentially plus negatively affects the industrial base. Insiders claim that they wont make the same mistake again but who knows - it is after all the Pentagon.

* Broadband stealth which almost requires no tail fins to come close to 100%; Which is nearly impossible and brings us to…

* Electronic Attack - already discussed here -

* DEW's - Everyone thinks Lasers (solid state, diode pumped-tunable frequencies ) but also seamlessly tying into EA since any AESA based attack module would essentially be a DEW.

* Open Architecture - plugin upgradable

* Self Healing skin and Morphing skins along with visual and aural stealth are all technologies that may enter into discussion but are not a requirement...

…Am I missing anything?