Palestinian military?

Let's say that it's 2011, a Palestinian state has been in existence alongside Israel for five years now. They've built up some infrastructure and got a small but vigourous economy going. The next step, in their eyes, is to start to develop their military capabilities.

I'm wondering, how far will Israel allow any Palestinian state to develop a military force? Would they try and stop them and would they be able to?

My personal view is that the Palestinians would be allowed to develop their military up to a certain point but when it starts to attain the ability to do some serious damage to Israel, action will be taken to halt their progress. I can't see Israel allowing any future Palestinian state to have a strong, capable military. What does everyone think about this?

(@Mods: This board seemed to fit best, please move it if it's in the wrong place )

The Palestinians would probably be allowed to have a military similar to what they had in the pre-war era. Of course, with Israel pulling out of gaza and building a security perimeter around the occupied territories, there might never be an independent palestinian state.

edit to add

Also, on the topic of military limitations, after WWI, germany was limited in what it could have as a military, even in terms of the tonnage of their fleets and the number of heavy guns. Japan, after WWII, is to this day limited in what it can have as a military. Effectively they are allowed a defense force, but not anything that could be used to fuel imperialistic agression. I would think that something similiar must exist for any possible independant palestinian state.

Note, however, that if the palestinians can really reform, and become a democratic state, they might need a military to protect themselves from their neighbhors.

[edit on 27-12-2004 by Nygdan]

If they were wise, Palentinians leaders would take a cue from Finland during the cold war. They developed equipment that was obviously only suited to defense, but spent a great deal of money on it. Emphasis on anti-tank and anti-aircraft (especially when so close to Israeli runways).

I have never been able to use the ATS search engine very successfully, but there was a discussion of tanks back in the summer; we were talking about a finnish tank (s-4? s-8???) that doesn't have a turret--the barrel is fixed to the chasis, and the single human occupant is open to the air. It sounds suicidal, until you look at a picture of one of these tanks parked in a roadside ditch around a bend of highway. I think the visible profile of the thing is 10 inches or so, most of which is the barrel of the main gun.

It's obvious that anti-tank guns will have trouble locking, and that the Finn is planning to shoot first and get a hit, while only risking one soldier. It also turns out that the biggest part of the cost for a tank is the turret hydraulics, plus the fancy-pants motors. But a tank designed to be stationary is extremely cheap to build and man.

The point is, Finland's military posture was a huge lubricant for Finno-soviet relations, since it was obvious that the Finns couldn't invade, and the Russians would not waste a first-strike surpise on a non-Nato state. Both state could tolerate the situation.

The thing is, no one really expects the Palestinians to cease to exist, since they are in a ring around the state of Israel. There is a real possibility that Isreal could be obliterated. It is that possibility that galvanizes Israeli attitudes about the conflict. If the Palistinian Authority could appear less threatening, then Israeli extremists would command less conformity from their people.

Since Palestinians have no central authority, there is no reward for their extemists to moderate, either.


As someone sagely pointed out, the return of the Gaza strip is a diplomatic end-run around Palestinian statehood: The UN might take Gaza from Israel, but not from Egypt. Egypt will never willingly give it up, and would be supported by the UN.

Originally posted by Chris McGee
I'm wondering, how far will Israel allow any Palestinian state to develop a military force? Would they try and stop them and would they be able to?

Israel would not allow them to have a military because it means Palestinian can start to fight back fairly and Israel cannot label it as "terrorism". Israel would make sure a palestinian military could never happen.