posted on Sep, 4 2014 @ 02:59 AM
At first I was thinking this was an armored formation, but I do believe it likely is mechanized, as those appear much more like BMP-3's or some other
similar IFV. I say that because the BMP's are amphibious, and they have a very similar skirt on the side of the vehicle. But modern forces are much
more likely to be combined-arms forces as well. You also have motorized infantry here, which is basically called motorized when the personnel carriers
are not armored. I am referring to the transport trucks, which are designed for carrying infantry. If I am wrong, and those are not IFV's, but rather
tanks, then this is likely a combined arms force of armored and motorized brigades, or likely battalions in this instance. A brigade usually has at
least 3 battalions, and up to around 6 or so. I don't think it is a division as there did not appear to be enough of anything, as divisions are quite
large. Perhaps we just didn't get to see the entire thing, but I still have a feeling this is less than a division. A battalion generally has
anywhere from 300-1300 infantry troops, which seems about fitting for what we saw in the video, although Russia, having restructured their military a
few years ago, switched from focusing on division-level deployment groups to brigade-level deployments. Therefore rather than seeing a single
battalion, we are likely seeing at least 3, maybe more, or a single brigade.
I also know that some of the Russian armies, after restructuring, are not really armies at all, but rather seem to be division-sized armies. Which
makes it more plausible that we are seeing something less than a division. I just pulled up the order of battle for the Russian army, and everything
does seem to be brigade level. They have a lot of motorized brigades, which again, are different from mechanized, although they might be a combined
force of motorized, mechanized, and armored, or Russia might just use different terminology. They seem to have mostly infantry brigades, and very few
tank brigades, at least less than the number of artillery brigades. They even have missile brigades. They have a number of what are termed "separate
motorized brigades," but I don't know what those are exactly. Maybe like support brigades, which in Russia seem to be heavily undermanned. I would
call a 400 man brigade pretty highly undermanned, lol.
One thing about the restructuring of the Russia military allows them to be more effective in conflicts like the one potentially with Ukraine. The
military used to be structured into military districts, armies, divisions, and regiments, but now is structured into military districts, tactical
commands, and brigades. This is effective because divisions are much too difficult to handle in small or even regional conflicts, and regiments in
Russia lacked the proper support systems, as there weren't enough of various types of weaponry, among other problems. This made a regiment somewhat
useless for conducting independent operations. So this is why they have a brigade-based system now.
Anyway, this was probably useless information for most people. Now on to what was intended with this thread. The first thing that comes to mind is
that we have no real way of knowing whether what we are seeing is in Russia or Ukraine. Second, we have no real way of knowing whether these forces
belong to Russia or Ukraine. Therefore I think it would be a mistake to assume that Russia is invading Ukraine at this point. I still don't think
Russia is actually going to invade Ukraine, which just makes me even more skeptical that this is what we're seeing.
I will say this...Whoever they are, they appear to be a lot more polite than some of the videos I saw of US troops driving their vehicles in Iraq. At
least these guys are driving on the shoulder, instead of weaving in and around civilian vehicles, or running them over.