Canadian DOD guy: There WILL BE WW3, this is not doom porn

There is no proof this guy was an analyst for Canadian Defense (unless he provides it), but everything he talks about smacks of real experience.
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I don't know if I am allowed to provide a link to other thread like site, his alias is, (Ucan'tEatBonds)
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I don't mean to boast, but 20 years ago I co-wrote threat analysis papers for Canadian Defense Department. Even though we are Canadians (weaker military), we take our work seriously just as much.

I may be little out of the loop (little bit old school). But watching this entire Ukraine fiasco and remembering how things in the government work, particularly in military sector, I gotta tell you folks, I am getting seriously worried.

And I am not worried for Russian Federation or the PRofChina.

I am worried for us.

Here is why.

US foreign policy has over the past 3 decades formed almost 800 military bases (not counting drone bases, it would be +2000 in that case). Now that the world is covered as much as possible, the only frontier left is Russia and China. US has financially supported fringe and right sector elements in Ukraine to topple the Pro-Russian government. Everything worked as planned.

Just one problem, Russians are completely, and I mean completely onto us. So are the Chinese, they know exactly what's going on. No one is fooling anyone anymore. In today's world, the scoreboard is completely in the open.

If US keeps pushing Eastern European countries into NATO, if US starts putting Russia under serious sanctions (more than just wrist slaps). The situation will escalate to military confrontation. NON NUCLEAR military confrontation. That would then become Tactically Nuclear. The 3rd stage would be intercontinental nuclear. Don't let the media fool you with missile shields, any scenario they ran with more than 300 targets, the containment was only 88%, and Russia can muster FAR MORE than 300 targets. This is not counting China.

This is one of those situations US needs to back off from. There is no way in hell Unites States would allow Canada to come under Russian or Chinese or Iranian influence. In the same way, Russia will not at any cost, allow Ukraine to fall under US/EU and NATO influence.

Did you know that 30 % of Russian military hardware is contracted to be manufactured in Ukraine. 40% of Ukrainians have Russian ethnic family as cousins at the least. Eastern Ukraine is 45% Russian.

I get what US is doing, this is a Up Yours Revenge for Snowden and few other things.

But if US foreign policy goal is to instigate the slow beginning of world war 3, then they are right on track, right on track.

Don't believe the popular media. Allies of United States other than Great Britain are far from willing to fight a major war. Europeans would scream surrender faster than you can fart.

There is so little to gain by pushing Ukraine into NATO, and so much to lose.

United States hubris comes from size of the military, but size of the military alone does NOT guarantee you successful war theater, that's the first thing you learn in military academy. Just that the damn politicos don't have a clue. And considering Obama Mamba quietly replaced all objective commanders with Obama loving puppets in the last 2 years.

Kerry now goes to Ukraine more times a week than I change socks and CIA chief was just in Ukraine few days ago, no doubt promising support and teaching new government few tricks.

I am seriously worried.

Can you imagine Canadian Quebec separatists being supported by Russian Diplomats, and yet John McCain and few others were with Kiev rebels pumping his fist into the air. This is a serious provocation and if this policy continues, Russians will eventually engage the army, and if US responds, that's it.

What you have said here has worried me since the whole thing started. Yet it seems more people care about Game of Thrones than do our earth.

I think Ukraine got a few days left before it is split and cease to exist, making all happy in some way.

a reply to: RadiationAndCancer

Finally a sensible post!! Most of what you said is spot on.

The media is making Russia out to be the big bad wolf. Most Americans have ZERO idea of what Ukraine has meant to the Russians and what role it played in the the soviet Union.

Most US citizens listen to their meida outlets and take the word of them like christian take the word of the Bible.

This whole situation is wrong. China WILL back Russia hands down when it comes to it and so will iran!!

It is yet to be determined how Israel will react after all the groveling from the US, Israel is a country that CAN NOT be trusted. They side with the power they think will win while sweet talking the other side and laying misleading niceties.

Great Britain can't afford a war right now. Cameron virtually has said so in the last budgetary meeting with his cabinet. Being forced into war is something that Great Britain would rather not do!!

The US are taking some very risky and bold stances publicly which is quite different from their previous approaches to international conflict. Normally they try and play it down.

I think WW3 could be a go within 6 months unless something steps in to divert this mess.

S & F for some good writing and food for thought!

a reply to: RadiationAndCancer

How can you say that? All NATO wants to do is park a bunch of missiles on Russians doorstep within easy range of Moscow, kind of like the Russians did in Cuba. No problem... er wait, yeah we did ha a problem with that now that I think about it.

As far as the Canadian Quebec separatists go if they could have mustered support in a referendum to break from Canada then who is anyone to say otherwise. Same goes for Texas or Alaska in the US. Just my opinion though, I believe in nationalism and lots of different countries and varied backgrounds. Forget this banker dominated NWO stuff.

a reply to: projectbane

It is yet to be determined how Israel will react after all the groveling from the US, Israel is a country that CAN NOT be trusted. They side with the power they think will win while sweet talking the other side and laying misleading niceties.

I don't see any way Israel would be on the same side with Iran, not even if aliens invade like in independence day, they would just try to the bitter end to bring them down with them instead of cooperating

originally posted by: projectbane
Finally a sensible post!! Most of what you said is spot on.

Actually these are not my words.

www.elitetrader.com...

a reply to: RadiationAndCancer

yea good luck challenging the most tenacious and determined military to have ever existed. Not to mention technologically superior on so many fronts you couldn't count them with basic arithmetic. But lets go non conventional and guess what end of the world, I always knew we were gonna die this way. Im reasonable not stupid

The Banker Corporations are getting their lobbyist (our Government politicians ) to tell us what is ..The problem is that what they say we know we cant believe . As soon as I seen our 3 political parties stand in unison and back the Nazi imposed Govt. in Kiev I knew they all answer to the same powers that bee .Obama nor Harper call the shots for their people plain and simple .The seemingly only sane one is Putin ...peace

Maybe I'm mistaken, but I'm reading your thread as stating that Russia invaded (is invading) East Ukraine because the U.S is miffed about Snowden?
hrmm.

a reply to: andr3w68

Minus the dragons, I think The Game of Thrones is a fairly accurate allegory of how the world has worked historically.

Quote from series:

"People often claim to hunger for truth, but seldom like the taste when it's served up." -Tyrion Lannister.
(George R.R. Martin)

I don't think that reference post used by the OP reveals anything but calculated speculation. What is happening right now can be interpreted in many different ways, and can easily be made to seem like we are on the brink of WW3, but do not underestimate the global position of the US (at least not in the near future).

In an extreme case, the US and her allies could collapse both the Russian and Chinese economies, and cause massive civil unrest in both red nations. In short, China is completely dependent on US consumption and strength of the US dollar by way of the US debt it is holding. Russia is completely reliant upon EU dependency of it's oil. While the US would suffer quite a blow itself by choosing that path, it would recover much faster than either of the Red States. If you pull the kimono back a little bit on either Russia or China right now, you can see the massive problems brewing.

In Russia's case, the situation in Ukraine is a power move, meant to keep them relevant and on the world field. He is also shoring up his power at home (his approval ratings have skyrocketed since the move in Crimea), which was becoming questionable. By stirring old Russian pride through reviving old USSR ideologies, he has made his people that were about to dump him overboard get back in line behind him. Check his record, and you will find that these recent moves are generally out of character for him, and many analysts who have followed him for decades believe he is playing a hand that he cannot win.

It is in my opinion, one of the most fascinating events on the global stage right now. I missed most of the cold war (born in the 70's), but it reminds me of so much of what I have read about it. It will be incredibly interesting to watch this play out over the next 5 years, but IMHO, i don't think atomic fireworks will be part of this show.

A good post S&F for the effort

Nice to see you are not full of hate towards Russia like a lot of people who have been feed a diet of propaganda most of there lives and won't listen to reason.

Like you I know Russia is to be feared but I suspect Russia is working with the USA to push up oil prices and to increase the peoples acceptance of yet more military spending.

The USA is telling Europe to increase military spending when on the whole we have been getting on with Russia just fine before the USA started to back terrorists in Kiev and you can bet the USA will be lining up to sell us all this military hardware they say Europe needs.

Get stuffed yanks stop trying to tell Europe what we should do all the time we are not all as blind as you think

originally posted by: projectbane
a reply to: RadiationAndCancer



This whole situation is wrong. China WILL back Russia hands down when it comes to it and so will iran!!

I disagree with your point here totally. There has never been, and will never be any love lost between China and Russia. The Chinese have a huge economic problem creeping up on them month by month. Are you saying that they would side side with the Russians in a global war against the US & Europe? They may (in the media) to some to be allied with Russia, but make no mistake about it, they would not trade buttered bread for a stale loaf. Siding with the rest of the planet against Russia would in fact be a huge power move for China, thrusting them further into a position of global ascendance & dependence.

I also think your point about Britain not being in a financial position for war works against the likes of Iran, but would totally moot when it comes to this particular situation. It is not just the US and GB involved here after all. All of Europe, most of the Middle East, parts of Africa and all of Asia would stand to lose a great deal by siding with Russia, with very limited upside potential.

This is not a unilateral effort at all. Putin will can puff out his bear fur all he likes, he broke the rules, and sent everyone scrambling for a minute. My guess is that if he continues he will destroy the Russian economy (and himself) for the next 20 years.

It doesn't matter if this guy is really Canadian DoD or not, every thing he said makes perfect sense. It was well-written, simple and makes it easy to understand for any one who doesn't realize what's going on over there. Thanks for the thread.

a reply to: RadiationAndCancer

I agree with what you're saying. I was talking with some of my fellow colleagues during lunch a few weeks ago. We all agreed if the shoe was on the other foot and it was Russia trying to influence Canada, the U.S. would be doing the same exact thing.

I grew up during the cold war. During that time, the U.S. propaganda about the Soviet Union was how they wanted to spread communism around the world. They controlled the press, spied on it's citizens and how the public couldn't speak out against their government for fear of being prosecuted.

The current U.S. domestic policy and foreign policy is doing exactly that. They're slowly taking away our constitutional rights, controlling the press, spying on its citizens, and trying to spread democracy by forcing our way of life on countries that don't want it. We continue to station troops and build bases around the world, and we still support NATO even though the Warsaw Pact came to an end in 1991.

The current U.S. foreign policy is clearly trying to get a foot hold in the Middle East and along the border of Russia. I'm beginning to feel like the U.S. is doing exactly the same thing.

This is all fine except for perhaps the starting premise that the west funded the Euromaidan protests which is just not true.

I am sorry but this is a very suspect rhetorical piece at best with its amateurish tone ('I don't mean to boast but…')

It also lacks credibility because the author does not speak or think like a trained analyst. A good analyst, especially one as high up as this person purports to be, speaks in more concise and dialectical terms and definitely focuses on the known elements. This piece focuses on the opposite, i.e. mostly speculation.

I would say this is bogus. And in any case, if this is truly from a retired analyst, why not publish under one's real name and give his credentials? That is what most do since it is completely allowed to talk about public domain subjects like this burgeoning conflict.

Am I the only one that read that in a Russian accent?

And I am not worried for Russian Federation or the PRofChina.

Dumbest post ever. US has Obama. No WWIII

a reply to: RadiationAndCancer

Why does this guys supposed credentials mean anything here? They don't, and I'll tell you why: Smart people on ATS have said EVERYTHING he said, many times over. He is right. The U.S is playing a very DANGEROUS game of chicken, and so is Putin.

I am neither pro U.S or pro Russian on this issue. I am against both nations brinkmanship. The U.S is trying to play the sly fox and the Russians are trying to pass themselves off as justified while simultaneously supporting the civil unrest in the east of Ukraine. Both nations are tossing around dangerous rhetoric and putting the entire world at risk.

The only hope we have is that both nations stop and let the UN get involved in the Ukraine to help the political process move forward towards an election so that Ukrainians can decide their own fate. Independent watchdogs should be set up in the eastern parts of the Ukraine (as well as other regions) so that those regions can freely vote on their own independence if need be.

Without peaceful self determination, the situation will continue to deteriorate. Lay down the guns and let the people take up their ballots.