Something's Up With China's H7N9 Bird Flu Epidemic

Not sure what's going on but something's up. Official US and Chinese reports are conflicting with other news reports. Not what I'd expect from CIDRAP.

On February 17, 2014 Liberty Voice reported that un-named scientists "fear a pandemic is about to strike." Then, On February 18, 2014, CIDRAP reported that the recent gush of H7N9 influenza cases may be continuing to ebb. South China Morning Post reported that China's live market bans were lifted, apparently in Guangzhou, and the headline read Breeders desperate to offload stock as ban on live chicken sales ends. Now, the link retrieves the headline, "Ban on Chinese live poultry extended for four months," saying the article was updated Wednesday, 19 February, 2014, 4:22pm. Meanwhile, other agencies have been reporting that human H7N9 bird flu infections continue to rise and that on Saturday, Guangzhou banned all live poultry markets for two (more?) weeks, through 28 February.

Also today, the FAO says they've ruled out human-to-animal spread of influenza A(H7N9). If true, this is very good news. But the other conflicting reports create confusion about the real situation and suggest something is being covered up.

Scientists Fear Bird Flu Pandemic Is About to Strike

Scientists working in Shanghai, China have announced that genetic differences in the potentially lethal bird flu virus which is going around China is increasing the possibility of a pandemic strain and they fear a pandemic is about to strike. There have been three new variations of the avian influenza type H7N9 virus found this winter. They came about by poultry transmission and the combination of genomic material from a flu strain known as H9N2. The researchers said that the various strains could be behind a swell of infections in a southern province of China which borders Hong Kong as well.

Chinese Cities Ban Poultry Trading as H7N9 Cases Rise

Chinese cities have stepped up control of the live poultry trade as the number of human H7N9 bird flu infections continues to rise. ...

On Saturday, Guangzhou, banned all live poultry markets for two weeks. The ban remains in effect through 28 February as part of the government's new effort to curb the spread of the H7N9 virus.

Markets Close Due to Worsening H7N9 Bird Flu

17 February 2014
CHINA – Poultry markets in two Chinese cities have been closed as the bird flu death toll continues to mount.

...A two week hiatus has been placed on Guangzhou markets, while Hangzhou has enforced a permanent ban in response to the year’s H7N9 bird flu death toll rising to 32.

reply to post by soficrow


Looks like it's a one way transmission.

People, on the other hand, become infected following close contact with infected live poultry, mostly in live bird markets or when slaughtering birds at home.

We can't infect them, but they can still infect us.

I'm telling ya! It just isn't fair!

H7N9 has mutated, may spread from human to human: expert

Here is some more info to add to your collection. Great work!!

S & F

CIDRAP weighs in, does not back down but says nothing about poultry market closures or conflicting reports - sticking to the official story that cases are slowing down.

China reports one H7N9 case, FAO says human illnesses aren't a threat to poultry

China reported just one new H7N9 case today, as the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said the detection of an imported human case outside of China doesn't pose a threat to poultry populations.

Human H7N9 cases in China have slowed to a trickle over the past week, but the effects of the outbreak continue to reverberate to the poultry sector, with an eye toward the consequences of disease spread beyond China's borders.

….His illness boosts the number of H7N9 infections in the second wave, which started last October, to 223, compared with 136 during the first wave last spring. It also brings the outbreak's overall total to 359, according to a human case list compiled by FluTrackers.

Didn't the 1918 flu pandemic take place over the spring/summer in a year right after a very harsh/cold winter?

Yep, a quick search shows it started with a small outbreak in Kansas, but the real action didn't get started until over the spring and summer of 1918, and it didn't actually stop until many months, years, later.

But there's no reason to expect that we're out of the woods just because flu season is winding down.

reply to post by ketsuko


Yes - pandemics tend to come in waves, spread over years until mass immunity develops. But this strain is barely epidemic and certainly not pandemic. Who knows what mutation might go pandemic? ...H10N8 has genetic material from both H7N9 and H5N1 - maybe that's the one. Or not.