Be Prepared: Extreme El Nino events to double study says

I've got news for you, ATS!

Climate scientists are sounding the alarm concerning violent weather and extreme conditions because of El Nino.

"We are due for a big El Niño year," the study's lead author Wenju Cai, an atmospheric scientist at Australia's Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization, told NBC News. "But nobody can predict when it is going to come."

"Be prepared
The increased ease with which extreme El Niño conditions could form suggests that the world should brace for more catastrophic weather events — such as torrential rains and flooding in regions accustomed to drought, and raging bushfires in the typically moist tropics of Southeast Asia, Cai said. The anticipated uptick comes at a time when weather disasters are already on the rise due to a rapidly growing and urbanizing global population, noted Rod Snider, a disaster risk reduction expert at the American Red Cross in Washington. Add climate change to the equation, and "we need to have even more robust disaster preparedness activity," Cai told NBC News."

www.nbcnews.com...

Wow, this really sounds like the nail in the coffin for humans. We really need to end our dependence on fossil fuels, but it might be already too late to fix things. I remain that we can turn things around but what's it gonna take before the elitists release their grip on this planet? The very fact that TPTB don't seem to care what becomes of this planet points to them being otherworldly. People say to wake up and do something but what can we really do? Write your local politician? Ha! Pickett Line? Ha! Grassroots campaign? Ha! Ending fossil fuel usage would be absolutely detrimental to the world economy. There are other energy advancements out there such as Solar and Nuclear, etc but it's not enough. Meanwhile, the climate is spiraling out of control. Cai further said: "We know better how bad these events are, yet we are still continuing to emit more and more carbon dioxide, and that is going to cause more frequent occurrence of what we call super El Niño events."

What say you, ATS?

I would like to direct you to the ever changing sun cycles.
The sun is in a constant state of flux, always changing its output.

There has been a lot of talk around here about the sun and its impact on global weather.
It was even covered on ATS live the other day.

I dont think that its an impact from global warming but a result of the suns solar cycles.

The suns activity has dropped to a record low, the maunder minimum.
The last time this happened the Thames river froze solid.

Solar Cycles

There was a great thread i wanted to point you to but i cant find it.

Sorry,

We made a mess and now we have to deal with it. It is no use blaming others now, we need to initiate change. This has nothing to do with taxing people either, a tax won't help. We need to start taking care of the ecosystem better. We need to fight the fires when they occur and try to prevent them from starting. We need to be more responsible.

I think it is irreversible, the only thing we can do is to make sure we don't do things to make it worse. We cannot cause harm to our food chain like we have been doing. That is one of the most irresponsible things we have done. We depleted a lot of land growing corn for fuel. That was not smart at all. We should have been more into conservation than trying to make fuel and then driving even more. We moved our work and stores far away from our homes and then we need to drive. That was a mistake.

rickymouse
We made a mess and now we have to deal with it. It is no use blaming others now, we need to initiate change. This has nothing to do with taxing people either, a tax won't help. We need to start taking care of the ecosystem better. We need to fight the fires when they occur and try to prevent them from starting. We need to be more responsible.

I think it is irreversible, the only thing we can do is to make sure we don't do things to make it worse. We cannot cause harm to our food chain like we have been doing. That is one of the most irresponsible things we have done. We depleted a lot of land growing corn for fuel. That was not smart at all. We should have been more into conservation than trying to make fuel and then driving even more. We moved our work and stores far away from our homes and then we need to drive. That was a mistake.

taxes..meh we have a carbon tax here and it is pointless (except for money making purposes)..

i do agree with you we the people need to be much more pro-active in reducing this issue as much as possible......we need a large push toward solar,hydro and wind technologies to produce power instead of this reliance on fossil fuels

Im sure that we have made an impact on the earth with our sue of fossil fuels.
No doubt.

I was going somewhere with my original post but i cant find my sources to explain further than this.

But the way i understand it, when our sun puts out less energy, it heat us less.

So we cool off. The storms are a product of equilibrium.

The earth is trying to even its temperature by drawing cold from the upper layers downward.

This creates storms of bigger proportions due to that imbalance.

The warmer ocean water are shedding their heat and driving the storm.


I cant go into more detail though. sorry.

Really??

Perhaps they should talk to these scientists...Sun Goes to Sleep, mini ice age may come...

digitaljournal.com...

And this is only from yesterday!!

www.dailymail.co.uk...

Remember the Deliverance Movie...Dueling Banjos?

All we have Nowdays is dueling Scientists.....None of them can agree (except for whomever pays the most money for "Research" . )

reply to post by gort51


This is kind of where i was going.
Once the sun lowers it output and the earth begins to cool we will see bigger storms as equilibrium takes over.

The storms will shrink as we get colder.

But i couldn't find the threads i needed to reference.

shaneslaughta
reply to post by gort51

 

This is kind of where i was going.
Once the sun lowers it output and the earth begins to cool we will see bigger storms as equilibrium takes over.

The storms will shrink as we get colder.

But i couldn't find the threads i needed to reference.

So, you think that MAN isn't responsible for any of these weather extremes? That it's the Sun and the Sun only? Interesting....

reply to post by hopenotfeariswhatweneed


With all the wild weather, it may not pay to have a lot of wind power in some areas. High winds will rip solar panels off also. Flying debris can damage all of those things. I thought about getting solar panels but figured I would wait till the price came down so it wouldn't cost so bloody much when a partridge breaks one when he hits the house. I have had a lot of partridge hit my house over the last twenty years. I could put a little windmill up to cut the population of the partridge down, but the eagles chasing the partridge and mice might run into them and cost me a lot of money. Darn blades are expensive. The cats would eat the birds, they wouldn't be wasted.

lostbook
So, you think that MAN isn't responsible for any of these weather extremes? That it's the Sun and the Sun only? Interesting....

I see you didn't read all my posts.

Im sure that we have made an impact on the earth with our sue of fossil fuels.
No doubt.

Not my research, These are professional scientists make these claims.

One lot says one thing, the other lot say another...I guess we have to just wait and see.

Personally, yes, I think there are far Too Many Humans on Planet Earth.

There are 1000 great white sharks left in the ocean, 3000 tigers left in the wild, I see where African poachers had killed another 1000+ rhinos last year not to mention 3000 elephants (all in Africa).

So yes, 6 Billion + humans have a lot to answer for, and Im all for sustainability. Thats why I live in a country of 20 million humans, and 50 billion trees. (dont ask me to count them).

Look at China and India (and Africa) to see mans real impact on the Earth.

Until Humans are educated, and realize they are only a part of the ecosystem......Just do the best you can with what you can do to reduce mans impact.

Dont over consume, dont over use, pollute less etc etc.

What we really need is another Jacques Costeau type environmentalist to remind everyone we live on a Planet...I guess the closest now is Mr Suzuki.

rickymouse
reply to post by hopenotfeariswhatweneed

 

With all the wild weather, it may not pay to have a lot of wind power in some areas. High winds will rip solar panels off also. Flying debris can damage all of those things. I thought about getting solar panels but figured I would wait till the price came down so it wouldn't cost so bloody much when a partridge breaks one when he hits the house. I have had a lot of partridge hit my house over the last twenty years. I could put a little windmill up to cut the population of the partridge down, but the eagles chasing the partridge and mice might run into them and cost me a lot of money. Darn blades are expensive. The cats would eat the birds, they wouldn't be wasted.

Buy a used steam turbine ($100 to $1000), you can always use burning wood in a boiler (homemade about $500) to produce steam to run the turbine which in turn can run a small 5 to 20kw generator ($200 to $1500). It's a reasonable sized footprint, most of it can be underground and the costs are not terribly extreme. The condensate collection from the turbine can be run through a small heat exchanger and you can heat your house with a water-glycol mix. Electricity for a house and pumps comes from the turbine coupled generator. Turbines can run for decades with very little maintenance as long as the temperature and pressure ratings are kept at around 85% of rated maximums. You can even make a "dry" steam oven to cook food at over 400 F and as well make a very nice no-flame still using temperature regulated mixing of cold and hot water to produce ethanol, all from the same steam source.

Cheers - Dave

We could use a El Nino year in calif

"We are due for a big El Niño year,

But many scientist use El Niño years as normal rainfall years and every other year with less rain is a drought.

reply to post by bobs_uruncle


I thought about making a small system like that to heat the house. It wouldn't have to be big to create energy and heat, but I checked on the cost of a turbine and it gave me shell shock so I figured kerosine lanterns would be better. I have a couple of old generators in case the power goes out to keep the freezers cold in the summer. Running the freezers for an hour a day does the trick. Putting a frozen chicken into the fridge keeps the fridge cold as it thaws.

rickymouse
reply to post by bobs_uruncle

 

I thought about making a small system like that to heat the house. It wouldn't have to be big to create energy and heat, but I checked on the cost of a turbine and it gave me shell shock so I figured kerosine lanterns would be better. I have a couple of old generators in case the power goes out to keep the freezers cold in the summer. Running the freezers for an hour a day does the trick. Putting a frozen chicken into the fridge keeps the fridge cold as it thaws.

Steam turbine prices aren't that dear, I found a nice little 45hp (60kw) unit for $1500 that runs fine at 60% on ebay that works to run a 20kw AC generator at 80% (16kw normal, 24 kw short term peak), found it at a local wrecker/surplus yard for $800. I didn't have to rectify the output as I simply supply a 60hz excitation source from a battery powered 1000w inverter. The boiler was made from transformer casings and the scrap price was about $300 plus the welding. The valving and tubing cost a bit more but it is well worth the trouble. If you want to run line excitation from the grid, you can sync up the output and run a net meter system and get paid for your overflow. That is a little more costly as you have to get the licenses and certification which runs about $10,000 but it can have a return based on about a year worth of initial cost amortization (sans labour).

My advice to anyone is leave the grid as soon as you can. Go to wood burning stoves in the interim because the prices of propane are going stupid, $0.57 moved up to $0.98 per liter in two months.

Cheers - Dave

reply to post by bobs_uruncle


That is interesting. I know a guy who owns a scrapyard, I will have to have him keep his eyes open for a turbine generator. If he gets stuff like that they are pretty big though, I doubt if he will find one. If he does find one, I can get it for about thirty five cents a pound, that would be what he gets for them when he sells them. I buy lots of stuff from him, walking through the yard and checking out what he has. He usually gets an occasional steam boiler there, I may be able to retrofit something if I get into that.

Wood is reasonable around here, you can get a 10 cord truck of hard maple for about a thousand bucks delivered and piled. I get mine in blocks for the kitchen cookstove and split it myself for about fifty five for a good face cord. I burn about four facecords a year in the cookstove and it cuts my furnace oil consumption in half. It also saves on the electric bill, the furnace takes a lot of juice when it runs too. Plus we cook half our meals on that stove, saving electricity.

Sounds as if you have to pay a lot to pay it back. I would rather just produce enough to meet my needs. In the summer it would be nice to make enough to keep the fridge and freezer going. In the winter we could use the weather to keep our frozen stuff, but it means that the frozen stuff will only be at what the weather is. Right now the freezers are at 0 degrees F. so the meat can last the whole year.

I'd be interested in a making a small unit. I also have been researching the technology to turn heat into electricity. I am trying to figure out how I can make a bigger unit that I can mount to the woodstove to charge batteries. In the summer, it is light sixteen hours here, in the winter it is light eight hours. But in summer we need the freezers and also electricity for the pump all year round. I could put a tank upstairs in the bathroom that can form a gravity feed, running a generator occasionally to fill the tank.

It's easier to pay the electric bill when it comes, but I also want to have a secondary electric grid in the house that I can utilize during power outages.

lostbook

shaneslaughta
reply to post by gort51

 

This is kind of where i was going.
Once the sun lowers it output and the earth begins to cool we will see bigger storms as equilibrium takes over.

The storms will shrink as we get colder.

But i couldn't find the threads i needed to reference.

So, you think that MAN isn't responsible for any of these weather extremes? That it's the Sun and the Sun only? Interesting....

Hope you guys don't mind my stepping in. Do I think man is responsible for these weather extremes? To a small degree I'd say it's possible, but man's just a small part of a bigger picture. Take all the active volcanos above and below the ocean, are you going to say that isn't contributing? And of course the decreased solar activity, just look at the earths history, we've gone through these spells before.

rickymouse
reply to post by bobs_uruncle

 

That is interesting. I know a guy who owns a scrapyard, I will have to have him keep his eyes open for a turbine generator. If he gets stuff like that they are pretty big though, I doubt if he will find one. If he does find one, I can get it for about thirty five cents a pound, that would be what he gets for them when he sells them. I buy lots of stuff from him, walking through the yard and checking out what he has. He usually gets an occasional steam boiler there, I may be able to retrofit something if I get into that.

Wood is reasonable around here, you can get a 10 cord truck of hard maple for about a thousand bucks delivered and piled. I get mine in blocks for the kitchen cookstove and split it myself for about fifty five for a good face cord. I burn about four facecords a year in the cookstove and it cuts my furnace oil consumption in half. It also saves on the electric bill, the furnace takes a lot of juice when it runs too. Plus we cook half our meals on that stove, saving electricity.

Sounds as if you have to pay a lot to pay it back. I would rather just produce enough to meet my needs. In the summer it would be nice to make enough to keep the fridge and freezer going. In the winter we could use the weather to keep our frozen stuff, but it means that the frozen stuff will only be at what the weather is. Right now the freezers are at 0 degrees F. so the meat can last the whole year.

I'd be interested in a making a small unit. I also have been researching the technology to turn heat into electricity. I am trying to figure out how I can make a bigger unit that I can mount to the woodstove to charge batteries. In the summer, it is light sixteen hours here, in the winter it is light eight hours. But in summer we need the freezers and also electricity for the pump all year round. I could put a tank upstairs in the bathroom that can form a gravity feed, running a generator occasionally to fill the tank.

It's easier to pay the electric bill when it comes, but I also want to have a secondary electric grid in the house that I can utilize during power outages.

For converting heat to electricity you can look at Peltier type technologies. There are also a couple of patents out there (a friend owns them) that allow you to make huge amounts of current at low voltages (0.5 to 1.5vdc) using thermocouple junction based batteries that you sink into your backyard and water from time to time. They don't have a large footprint either so 10 or 20 of these would consume 10 to 30 cubic yards but could give you 12vdc (in series) at 100 to 200 amps. I realize that's only about 1200 to 2400 watts, but every little bit helps and this is sustainable technology where the electrodes might last 10 to 50 years because of the low voltage electron migration ;-)

Cheers - Dave

reply to post by lostbook


Carbon dioxide is now at 400 parts per million, that is less than one percent of the total atmosphere, just how is it that minuscule amount can have so much effect on the other 99.6 % of the atmosphere, just does not make sense to me.