What if Comet ISON breaks apart?

Hello ATS,

With the Sun's disk almost completely devoid of sunspots, solar flare activity has come to a halt. Measurements by NOAA's GOES 15 satellite show that the sun's global x-ray emission, a key metric of solar activity, has flat-lined.



The quiet spell is a bit strange because 2013 is supposed to be a year of solar maximum, with lots of flares and sunspots.

Supporting this view are data from NASA-supported observatories which show that the sun's magnetic field is poised to flip - a long-held sign that Solar Max has arrived. Nevertheless, solar activity is low.

One possible explanation is that Solar Max is double-peaked and we are in the valley between peaks. If so, solar activity could surge again in late 2013-2014. No one can say for sure, though. Researchers have been studying sunspots for more than 400 years, and we still cannot predict the behavior of the solar cycle. Continued quiet or stormy space weather? Both are possible in the weeks and months ahead.

Comet ISON photographed on September 12, 2013:


Comet ISON is due to make its spectacular appearance beginning November 2013 as it begins its close approach and whiplash around the sun at just 0.012AU (~1.1-million kilometers above the solar surface).

During the approach to the sun, the comet, or it’s tail will not be in earth’s path.This leaves a trailing ‘rain’ of comet dust, particles, and ‘matter’ behind in space.

During January, NASA calculated that comet ISON at that time was ejecting 122,000 tons of ‘matter’ every minute from its tail! The closer it gets to the sun, the more ‘matter’ is ejected…

But what would happen if Comet ISON hit the Sun?

(Note: we have zero historical or modern record of any comet, ever, on a sun-striking orbit; this is all just hypothetical.) One of the more fascinating conclusions is that "in the case of impacts by the most massive comets (1020g or so) the cometary flare energy release (2×1035erg) is much larger than that of the largest solar flares ever observed. An impact of this magnitude would have very significant terrestrial effects."

The "cometary flare" would need to be Earth-directed. This Earth-threatening scenario is theoretically possible but for most plausible situations, a comet will be destroyed before it reaches the Sun's surface.

But what would happen if Comet ISON survives the Sun?

If it survives the sun, and many believe that it stands a good chance, it will streak rapidly back outwards in the general direction towards earth, and ISON will make its closet physical approach to us on December 26.

After ISON has sailed past us, earth will pass through the comet’s particle trail (the one when it was approaching the sun on its inbound leg,) and this will happen on or around January 12 – 15, 2014.

This is remarkable. ISON will have left the trail of debris on or close to November 1, at the spot where earth will transit mid January, just 10 to 11 weeks later.

NASA says that the space dust will be too small to affect us badly…

What about this…

1. ‘What if’ Comet ISON hits the sun and the “cometary flare” is Earth directed.

2. 'What if' Solar Activity surge again just as ISON begins its close approach and whiplash around the sun.

Note: Coronal mass ejections (which are different to flares) happen a few times per day, every day during periods of high solar activity. The chances are pretty high that we'll see at least one CME in the hours surrounding ISON's perihelion passage in November of this year.

This can have an impact on ISON?

3. 'What if' the comet breaks apart, the nucleus of the comet explodes into smaller chunks as it swings around the sun?

Experts say the comet won't threaten Earth. In fact, even if it breaks up.

4, 'What if' the chunks survive, on what trajectory will they be?

Could we be in danger? Of course no one knows. It hasn't happened… yet.

Hopefully this don't turn into a doomsday thread, just putting this theory 'out there'

reply to post by skyblueworld





sorry.

Excellent! Well researched and laid out for us . Well done.

How did you know we were short of doom porn !?

In answer to your headline, I can only reply OMG !!!

What do you suggest !!!

/ off.

reply to post by skyblueworld


oh wait in the happy candyland world it will look like this....

In theory it is possible that if the comet broke apart a piece could zing the Earth, there would really be no accurate way to predict collision and trajectory until it happened.

But it's highly unlikely Ison isn't actually passing through the Earths orbit it will be above the elliptic, space is vast, it's very difficult for people to perceive the actual "space" involved, the reality is even if it breaks up the odds of any kind of collision would be vast, you're as likely to win the lottery on Wed.

Can we just not do it on a Sunday? I don't want to miss the gran prix race AND NFL Sunday because of something as trivial as an extinction event ! also, it might not be a big big comet really far away, it could be a really tiny, tiny comet, and it's just stuck rattling around inside the telescope, like the rest of the known Universe! Also, that's a pretty cool avatar! I was wondering, do the E.T.'s strap those cut-outs to they're saucers with duct tape, or do they use a nail gun ?

reply to post by skyblueworld


That A Good News!!! so we can see it two or many of ISON..Not Only One! Great!!









am i wrong?
But First Star and Flag for you Mr. Sky Blue

skyblueworld
What about this…

1. ‘What if’ Comet ISON hits the sun and the “cometary flare” is Earth directed.

2. 'What if' Solar Activity surge again just as ISON begins its close approach and whiplash around the sun.

This can have an impact on ISON?

3. 'What if' the comet breaks apart, the nucleus of the comet explodes into smaller chunks as it swings around the sun?

4, 'What if' the chunks survive, on what trajectory will they be?

Hopefully this don't turn into a doomsday thread, just putting this theory 'out there'

Its a doomsday thread.

Objects in orbit around the sun cannot do any of the things you are "putting out there" any more than Venus can suddely decide to SLAM into the Earth, or the planet Mercury could suddently decide to plummet towards the sun.

If comet ISON hits the sun, basically it means that God or another deity has intervened to change the laws of physics.
Same with Solar Activity. No affect on the comet that could remotely have any effect on Earth. Once again, you're looking at paranormal supernatural schience fiction.
And if the comet breaks up, as it well might, it will do what every other comet that has broken up will do, and have the parts travel in the same orbit, like beads on a string, or carriages on a train.

It won't hit us.

You can't worry about it because...

A. It probably won't happen.

B. You can't prevent it.

Don't lose sleep enjoy what you have.

reply to post by alfa1

If comet ISON hits the sun, basically it means that God or another deity has intervened to change the laws of physics.

That's an even bigger stretch of the Imagination than Venus or Mercury just suddenly deciding to move orbit freely and hit our earth.



Science and Religion, for me, is a no no.

reply to post by skyblueworld


I can't seem to make this

Experts say the comet won't threaten Earth. In fact, even if it breaks up.

fit with this.

[Comet ISON will be 15 times brighter than our moon.]

How does a passer by 15 times brighter than the moon not present a threat ?
I think I feel threatened just at the sound of it.

reply to post by cheesy


I hope we're all wrong and ISON just gives us a spectacular show without the doom, which of course it will, hopefully

reply to post by randyvs

1. The measured brightness of a comet depends on how large an aperture is used, with bigger apertures yielding brighter measurements.
2. Background stars can contaminate the aperture and bigger apertures have more background stars. Furthermore, two observations made at different times can yield different measurements due to different background stars being in the aperture because the comet moved.
3. The manner in which the background is calculated can affect the measured brightness, especially if the background is taken too close to the comet, the moon, or the Sun so too much background is removed.
4. Stars used to calibrate an image are generally of different spectral types and since different spectral types suffer differing amounts of extinction by the Earth’s atmosphere, the calibration varies depending on if the comet is observed overhead (the light passes through relatively little atmosphere) or near the horizon (the light passes through a lot of atmosphere).
5. The brightness depends on the wavelength of light in which the observation is made, so a measurement in an R-band image (which is mostly just reflected solar continuum) will yield a different measurement than a measurement in a V-band image (which has both reflected solar continuum and prominent emission from gases).
6. Different CCDs have different sensitivities and can therefore skew results. For observers making brightness estimates by eye, the human eye has a different response than a CCD and people’s eyes have different sensitivities.

I could go on, but you get the idea that there are a lot of variables that can affect the brightness measurement.

www.isoncampaign.org...
Hope that sort of helps you

reply to post by skyblueworld


Not really, because I'm mostly contemplating the psychological effects regarding the
abnormality of the phenomena. Sounds as tho it will light up the whole night.

SnF

skyblueworld

(Note: we have zero historical or modern record of any comet, ever, on a sun-striking orbit; this is all just hypothetical.) One of the more fascinating conclusions is that "in the case of impacts by the most massive comets (1020g or so) the cometary flare energy release (2×1035erg) is much larger than that of the largest solar flares ever observed. An impact of this magnitude would have very significant terrestrial effects."

The "cometary flare" would need to be Earth-directed. This Earth-threatening scenario is theoretically possible but for most plausible situations, a comet will be destroyed before it reaches the Sun's surface.

But what would happen if Comet ISON survives the Sun?

We do have a modern record of any comet, ever, on a sun-striking orbit;
now, the question is, what will happen next?

Just remembering the unpredictability of comet after the aproach to the sun... (lovejoy 16DEC2011)

If it breaks up it will do what every other object in space does if it breaks up, it will all stay on the same trajectory because that's what the laws of physics state will happen.

Science understands stellar mechanics pretty damned well, and the positions of things can be charted to pin-point accuracy.

reply to post by skyblueworld


You have done a credible job of reporting and projecting scientifically released data on Comet Ison. But it should not and does not end there. What remains is to think a bit further into these mysterious objects beyond what conventional Science would have you believe. In other words, to use the old Star Trek phrase, "To go where no man has gone before."

OP and readers, if you want to make that attempt on your own with some help, please check out my lengthy article in the Aliens & UFO forum entitled Rethinking Comets. It puts some new twists and thoughts into the origin and purpose of these mysterious objects.


www.abovetopsecret.com...

well....

By physics yes, they should stay in the same orbit.

But you guys are not 100% correct.

Internal heating of the Comet could cause it to explode in which case the pieces could shatter like a shotgun blast there is also the matter of outgassing in which the comet itself could spray out altering the orbit, it really depends on the size and internal structure of the comet.

While unlikely, it can happen.

Inview of the lack of info on ISON and even disinfo on the comet this morning I thought it might be interesting to resurrect this thread. There was almost a desperation yesterday evening to say that ISON had been destroyed and only a trickle of new info on it surviving..........in some shape.

I wondered why such eagerness to say 'it's gone' just when it had disappeared behind the sun, after all, that was what was going to happen for a little while anyway.

The whole thing seemed odd. Even Spaceweather chipped in with an almost immeadiate obituary for ISON and by the time I checked again this morning it had to admit to ISON's survival.

But is the possible breaking up of ISON a problem, afterall trajectory might change? So many 'mights' but anyone any idea?

So many super telescopes looking unfathomable distances into space and yet 'nobody knows anything'?

Is that really possible?