The Caribbean Could be in Trouble- 5.1 just hit, Among Expanding, Vast Swarm of Quakes

I don't remember when I first started watching earthquakes...
But I remember back in 2010, seeing the swarm of eqs in Puerto Rico/ Virgin Islands.
Pages & pages & pages of them on USGS, for days!

I was fascinated by them! Couldn't believe it wasn't all over the news!
Of course that was before I ever found ATS!!!

I kept thinking, "What does it mean for the Caribbean"?
Then, BAM! Poor Haiti had their big one!
I was hooked after that! Been trying to learn & see the connections ever since!

Humans can be a very haughty lot!
We think we already know all there is to know.
We have everything all figured out.
Tied up in neat little formulas & graphs....NOT!!!

Our little flyspeck of existence, on the time line of history, is nothing compared to nature's!
We don't know yet what is 'normal', 'usual' or 'cyclical'!!!
In actuality, everything has been an 'educated guesstimate',
based on what we have seen so far, or been able to unearth of past events.

We have only just, 'scratched the surface', so to speak, of what could be out there.
So kudos to TA for being an eq sentinel & everyone on ATS who is keeping an eye out for us.
Studying, teaching & letting us know when there is something that bears a closer look!

Thanks! We really appreciate all the hard work!
WOQ

Way to keep your eyes open True American Once again your science is sound. The Caribbean has always been active geologically. It's been a couple years since that big one hit Haiti. That area might be due to release some pressure in a big way.

Mother Nature has not been kind in proving your science right, but that turns out to be a good thing for the people of those places (like Japan / Tokyo area). With the areas you've pointed out its not a matter of if, its a matter of when. However, its geologic time. Could be today, could be 100 years from today. Geologically that would still be considered a short span of time.

Originally posted by TrueAmerican
reply to post by lasertaglover

 

Excellent points. And thanks for the support all.

Note also that we just had what appears to be a late aftershock in Haiti, too.

UPDATE: Quake came in at 5.1, was revised down to 5.0, and now it has been revised BACK UP to 5.1.

EDIT also: Depth revised to 8 km, which is still, even after review, WAY TOO SHALLOW for that spot.

edit on Tue Feb 26th 2013 by TrueAmerican because: (no reason given)

And some people just don't get it, it seems. The rules have changed after Japan. There was a small swarm of quakes prior to the massive 9+. In researching the massive quake (biggest in history) 9.5 in Chile, there were foreshocks before it too. And in the OP here, we just saw the foreshocks with my mentioned thread about Santa Cruz Islands. Ample foreshocks before 8.0.

So no, don't listen anymore peoples to the BS that swarms can't lead to bigger quakes. It's not true. They CAN, they HAVE, and they WILL continue to, in a certain percentage of quakes. Will they here in this case? I DON'T KNOW!!!

edit on Tue Feb 26th 2013 by TrueAmerican because: (no reason given)

The Japan earthquake was manmade not natural I can absolutely guarantee this

The Caribbean?

Where have you been for the last 4 years?

Originally posted by thesmokingman
Earthquake swarms are NOT precursors to bigger quakes.

While being true that it is not always evident that swarms can lead to a larger quake, there is other research showing that some large quakes have came after small swarms. We just had a 5.1 out of an area of swarms. What's next? a 7.0? 9.1? Could be absolutely nothing, but you have to take in all of the data and make predictions based on that data.

TA has a proven track record showing that he knows what he's talking about. And he uses all available data.

Originally posted by thesmokingman
These swarms actually let pressure escape

This isn't gas pressure escaping. These are two plates pushing on each other one way or another. You can only push on something for so long before it gives. Swarms indicate the plates are rubbing. Sometimes the rubbing stops, the swarms go away, and nothing happens for years.

Other times, the rubbing gets worse and worse until a large quake happens. To say that swarms are definitely not precursors to larger quakes is an ignorant stance and a very ill-knowledgeable statement.

TA has a proven track record showing that he knows what he's talking about. And he uses all available data.

reply to post by _BoneZ_


Please show me some of this track record. Ill wait

reply to post by _BoneZ_


Who said anything about "gas pressure"?

Okay enough is enough....
Mods please don't allow smokingman to continue to derail this thread. He can easily search TA's threads and posts to see what he's been right or wrong on without requesting it be spoon fed to him.

SMOKINGMAN: TA may not be right 100% of the time but his observations are spot on. He's been a valuable contributor in the Fragile Earth forum for years. Perhaps you can read the 700+ pages of the Yellowstone thread like I and so many others did. I'm not sure why you are being so rude, perhaps it's you're age, or you just had a bad day. But please stop and let those of us who want to hear TA's observations, do just that.

reply to post by thesmokingman


All I can add is...........





You are within bound's of the topic. This thread was meant as a prediction.

Originally posted by IWant2Believe323
Okay enough is enough....
Mods please don't allow smokingman to continue to derail this thread. He can easily search TA's threads and posts to see what he's been right or wrong on without requesting it be spoon fed to him.

SMOKINGMAN: TA may not be right 100% of the time but his observations are spot on. He's been a valuable contributor in the Fragile Earth forum for years. Perhaps you can read the 700+ pages of the Yellowstone thread like I and so many others did. I'm not sure why you are being so rude, perhaps it's you're age, or you just had a bad day. But please stop and let those of us who want to hear TA's observations, do just that.

I have searched and find nothing. Thats why I asked for PROOF.

I'm relieved the aftershocks are only currently 4 (or does that westernmost 3.8 count?) and no shallower than 29km deep. I think if we were seeing more in the very shallow range, we'd be looking at a potential bigger 'quake, but this looks like it might turn out to be venting.

Originally posted by thesmokingman

Originally posted by IWant2Believe323
Okay enough is enough....
Mods please don't allow smokingman to continue to derail this thread. He can easily search TA's threads and posts to see what he's been right or wrong on without requesting it be spoon fed to him.

SMOKINGMAN: TA may not be right 100% of the time but his observations are spot on. He's been a valuable contributor in the Fragile Earth forum for years. Perhaps you can read the 700+ pages of the Yellowstone thread like I and so many others did. I'm not sure why you are being so rude, perhaps it's you're age, or you just had a bad day. But please stop and let those of us who want to hear TA's observations, do just that.

I have searched and find nothing. Thats why I asked for PROOF.

BS. Had you searched, you would have found Confounding Sequence of Big Quakes Rattle Santa Cruz Islands, which lead to this separate topic ALERT- Big quake- Santa Cruz- 8.0!! Alert Northern Australia Coast- Beware Tsunami.
You would have also found INCOMING! The Fastest Quake News Thread Specifically for GEE Users and Magnitude Estimates. So before you go all knee-jerk, try actually READING some of his threads, instead of being whiny about the proof you refuse to check out in the first place.

reply to post by Nyiah


That westernmost 3.8 represents the latest expansion westward of the activity, and it appears it occurred at a typical depth- moderately deep. Interestingly, the other small ones clustered near the 5.1 appear to be aftershocks from it, and those do appear to be at typical depths for the location. I just don't understand why the 5.1 was so shallow, even in the case of a dipping fault. I would have expected the situation to be reversed, with the 5.1 deeper, and perhaps the smaller aftershocks more shallow.

With just one reason, I probably would not have created this thread. But the western expansion of the swarm, which continues, and now this anomaly in the depth of that 5.1- and so yeah, time to say something. If someone doesn't like it- then hey, they can vacate the premises. I don't think they'll be missed.

Now I HOPE that there is no trouble with a much bigger quake. But if any of you have read the summary of the area the USGS provided for that 5.1, you'd see that the potential exists- many large quakes have happened in the area before.

S&F TA.
You are one of the few i really take any notice of on this site.
5cr3w the detractors i say.

This may come to nothing, and it may be a "normal" swarm, but if it comes to peoples attention
and something does come of it, then better people are forewarned.

its because of the likes of you TA that i now have a better appreciation for Mother Earth and her power, than i did 5 years ago.

I would much rather a sentationalist headline (in some peoples opinion), and have nothing happen, than no headline and have something horrific happen.

Haters gonna hate dude.

Peace out man....

I am mostly a lurker on ATS, but I wanted to add my thanks to TA as well.

If I was only interested in reading about things after they happen I would just read Reuters everyday. The beauty of ATS is that there are a few really unique people that think outside the box. They make predictions, point out interesting things, sometimes they hit, sometimes they miss, but that is what make it interesting and that is what keeps me coming back day after day. TA is not a "the sky is falling person".

I wish I could add something of value to this thread, I just know my post will come up with one of those mod warnings on it, but I felt compeled to at least add my thanks. So thanks TA.

I live in the DR and didn't even know this happened until now. I better be more active in this forum.
Going to try and find what the local media is saying about it.

Thanks for the info!

If people are leaving ATS 'in droves' do us all a favour Smoking Man and the other TA bashers...........join them!

I to have learnt a lot from you TA and I guess the truth is that we don't want you to be right.

www.globalcmt.org/cgi-bin/globalcmt-cgi-bin/CMT4/form?itype=ymd&yr=1988&mo=11&day=3&oyr=1976&omo=1&oday=1&jyr=1976&jday=1&ojyr=1976&ojday=1&otype =nd&nday=1&lmw=6&umw=6.5&lms=0&ums=10&lmb=0&umb=10&llat=-90&ulat=90&llon=-180&ulon=180&lhd=0&uhd=1000<s=-9999&uts=9999&lpe1=0&upe1=90&lpe2=0&upe2=90 &list=0


earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqarchives/fm/pr13057002_rmt.php

reply to post by wujotvowujotvowujotvo


umm, how many times are they going to revise the depth of that quake?

:shk:

From 5, to 8, then 15, and now 27 km?

Ha. Even at 27 km, that depth is STILL an anomaly...Keep trying USGS...Maybe one day you can get it down to typical depth of 75 km+.

And by the way, Mr. wujo... you posting the moment tensors without comments is just confusing everyone. What's your point?