China's Dollar Optimism Signifies Larger Economic Shift?

China's Dollar Optimism Signifies Larger Economic Shift?

www.thedailybell.com

The advantage is shifting back to the US. A so-called "manufacturing renaissance" is under way as US companies bring home plants to exploit cheap shale gas and lower transport costs.

We've written a good deal about the demise of Peak Oil and the resurgence of the US as an energy power. But anyone who believes this is merely an evolution of modern technology does not fully understand what has taken place, in our view.

This energy extraction technology has been around for decades in one form or another and its current rollout is a kind of directed history, so far as we're concerned.

(visit the link for the full news article)

I find it a bit disheartening that The Daily Bell, who purport to be a better source of information that the main stream media would uncritically reprint data from Citibank, an empire institution if ever there was one, without assessing it for accuracy or bias.

You quote Citibank as saying: "A report by Citigroup said the explosive growth of US oil and gas output over the past year had exceeded the "wildest dreams of energy analysts". The US has halved its oil imports since 2005 and is moving "rapidly towards self-sufficiency", turning global geo-politics on its head."

The actual data shows that this is just more of the naked emperor trying to convice people he has some clothes.

Here are the actual production statistics for oil production in the United States from 2005 to 2011. (Statistics from 2012 not yet available.)

Figures in Millions

Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Total Oil Production** 6895 6841 6847 6734 7270 7555 7841
Total Oil Consumption** 20802 20687 20680 19498 18771 19180 18835

Total Imports 13907 13846 13833 12764 11501 11625 10994

Natural Gas Plant Liquids* 1717 1739 1783 1784 1910 2074 2216
Total OIL production 5178 5102 5064 4950 5361 5481 5625

As can easily be seen from the above figures, the supposed fall in imports:

1. Is no where near 50%
2. Is mostly due to the fall in consumption, from 20,802 millions of barrels in 2005 to 18835 millions of barrels in 2011. To anyone who hqasn't drunk the cool aid, this is obviously due to the collapsing economy. If you want to see the real economic numbers for the collapsing US, go to www.shadowstats.com... and do some reading.
3. 50% of the increase in US oil production is due to the inclusion of Natural Gas Plant Liquids, a dubious statistical trick as most of these products are Benzene and Pentane, neither of which can be burned in any vehicle.
4. This 50% increase in these NGPL's are due to a mind numbingly bad investment in natural gas fracking. Far from being an exciting new technology, this industry has consumed 600 Billion in capital during this time and lost every penny, with no hope of any profit anywhere on the horizon.
5. The other half of the increase is due to tight oil production, often mistakenly called shale oil, which appears to be peaking right now, and which in the case of the often sited Bakken formation, requires 20% more wells per year, and therefore a massive increase in capital every year, just to keep the production level flat.

In fact, only this financially ridiculous and suicidal deployment of an old and ridiculous technology is disguising the fact that US production continues to fall.

It is also funny that Citibank states that; "oil and gas output over the past year had exceeded the "wildest dreams of energy analysts".

Far from exceeding the wildest dreams of energy analysts, the current bump in production was forcast years ago by the peak oil movement. This is an example of what is called the maximum effort peak. Both the US after its peak in the early 70's and the Former Soviet Union both experienced a similar small and insignificant maximum effort peak. The current peak in the US is just America's contribution to the Global Maximum Effort Peak which we are in the middle of right now.


Many observers have wondered if the Daily Bell is not just a cleverly disguised disinformation outlet for the empire. I would take it as a positve sign that you are not if you would post a longer analysis of today's real energy situation based on real facts, not silly Citybank studies published in media owned by the empire.

* Data from the Energy Information Administration:
www.eia.gov...

**Data from the BP Statistical Review of World Energy:
www.bp.com...


www.thedailybell.com
(visit the link for the full news article)

Interesting. I was just reading this morning (cannot remember exactly where, I go through so much reading each day it can get confusing) that there is a "natural gas" bubble that Wall Street has created, as they have bundled leases that produce nothing along with leases that do, and sold them as a package.

I believe it said that they would have to frack the heck out of the US to keep up with their promises and "hot air". Practically impossible due to the cost. The environmental damage is horrific.

Combine that with the "tight oil" (tar sands) that isn't nearly as prolific as they would have us believe, and you have a scenario that will essentially be a bust by 2025.

There was a thread discussing China's sudden "enthusiasm" for our dollar last night. I don't buy it. In fact, whatever you read, if it doesn't square with what you are seeing and know to be true, take it with a grain of salt.

The natural gas bubble created by Wall Street wizards rings true for me. The Chinese suddenly in love with the dollar does not.

Wow this is all very disturbing I did check out that website (thank you) which was even more disturbing. Could they (China) again be interested in the dollar only for the short term, creating further interest then backing off with excess gains. I by no means have an economic experience other than average consumerism. It seems fishy.

Thanks OP I am going to see what more I can learn from that site.

This says a lot about the dailybell as a website and very little about China's optimism towards the dollar. China and the U.S. are moving in two totally different directions in terms of their economies. China is the frontier of innovation, the U.S has lost all steam to say the least.

I'm pretty sure China has no optimism towards anything regarding the U.S., except for it's decline.