Forecasting the future is possible, just not feasible.

The future has already happened, only we're too slow to translate it into past.

Keep trying, get active, don't indulge too much

reply to post by abecedarian


Ok, does that mean that there is no such thing as insignificant data? I looked at it as if you fire a bullet from a pistol chances are it is going to go straight regarless of influences that happen upon it, unless those influences are deemed significant.
Or am I missing something here?

reply to post by mikerussellus

In my mind, no data is insignificant... possibly irrelevant but not insignificant.

Take for instance the possibility that the marble from my example has a significant magnetic component and there are buried high-voltage cables directly under the marble, rebar in the concrete slab the marble is going to roll across, and you had a stereo loudspeaker playing your favorite tune right next to where you were going to be rolling the marble. Would the magnetic field from the wires, the possible attraction the marble would have to the rebar, and the magnet in the loudspeaker interfere with the path of the marble?

With regards to the pistol, crosswinds can influence the trajectory of a bullet as can the coriolis effect. Otherwise, shooting a bullet straight into the air would cause it to land at the exact position of the gun when fired. Marksmen / sharp-shooters have to take into consideration the wind, gravity, etc. when firing over large distances.

edit to add:
Nothing can be considered insignificant or irrelevant unless it's been considered and deemed such.

[edit on 5/24/2009 by abecedarian]

reply to post by abecedarian



Uderstood. But what still confuses me (and its been a long time since analytical statistics in college) if statistical insignificance can impact a data point with the same relative strength as statistically significance then is determining significance more arbitrary. I go back to the butterfly effect you stated earlier, if that can significantly alter an outcome then the whole idea of insignificant/significant stresses seems arbitrary.
And if thats the case then I blew a whole semester studying when I couldv'e beeen out drinking!

reply to post by Rebostar


As I understand it... If such a computer were possible, I think you would find that it could only map the future that currently exists. Not the future that's still being created. By the time we get to a point in the future, new information will exist in the universe, thereby adding additional details around events that already existed (in the future).

reply to post by Rebostar


Your future is predetermined by your actions. Every time you head off the path you are currently on, a new future exist as the most likely possibility. The previous future does not cease to exist because it still exist as a possibility. Alternately, all futures co-exist as one present and a multitude of past.

To me at least, predicting the future is quite feasible.

I'm agreeing with Rebostar.



[edit on 24-5-2009 by Taz4591]