Odds are Aliens are not here

Since the release of the UK files there have been more so called sightings than ever. People’s imagination run amuck and this spurs on more people to report just any light they see. This in now way increases the odds of aliens being here the odds of them not being here is not changed.

The articles presented in the OP may be floored in the view of some posts here and probably rightly so but there has been nothing said that shortens the odds of them being here.

We have to have something as a starting point so let’s look at it in reverse to give us some idea of the odds. If one day we turn out to be aliens because we visit a planet with say some level of intelligent life. Before this happens several events need to occur.

First we need to actually find a planet to visit with intelligent life. Flitting around the galaxy checking them out is a bit of a waste we need to find ways of detecting life from afar. When we have we can then go and check it out. Seems to me that is going to take quite some time maybe 10,000 years or more. I won’t argue the time frame but it will be a while.

Second we have to survive our own evolutionary steps as suggested in the article. Such as not killing the human race off in the next 10k years or more. Such as not pushing our planet into some kind of downward spiral with emissions or whatever comes next. The next ice age or heat age, a virus, or bacteria form space.

One post earlier already said we had survived challenging times and we will survive again. We may not survive or we may survive to be put back 1000s of years.

Look, it doesn’t matter what these are the argument is not specific here, whatever happens we have to survive in an advanced state to find another civilisation. If we cannot survive in an advanced state then it is also possible that other intelligent life has destroyed itself also

Post have suggested that they evolve differently than us – very true. In which case they may evolved to be more susceptible to destroying themselves than we are.

So do you think we can survive long enough to be able to travel around our galaxy to visit other civilisations?

If the answer is yes then it is possible there are travelling aliens – it doesn’t mean they are here NOW, there’s a whole bunch of odds stacked against this.

reply to post by majestictwo

Post have suggested that they evolve differently than us – very true. In which case they may evolved to be more susceptible to destroying themselves than we are.

You're hitting upon a point here, but there's not enough follow-through. People often think that Alien life would be so completely different than life on Earth that we can't really make speculations on their nature, behavior, or even physical shape. To a degree, this is true. Alien life could very well quite different than life on Earth. However... it'll also probably be far more like Earth based life than many people would suspect. For instance...

We're finding out that out of all the basic elements capable of creating life, carbon poses the least amount of problems or hurdles to the process of abiogenesis. The primordial components needed for the formation of carbon based life are some of the most common in the universe. We're even finding rich reserves of organic compounds in comets way out in the Oort Cloud at the fringes of our solar system. The universe is literally saturated with them. So the chances of us finding life in the universe that is carbon based is already extraordinarily high.

Now, let's assume the pessimistic view that life can only form on Earth-Like planets. Ignore moons and planets such as Europa which are thought to be able to form and cultivate life, but do not have similar environments. Evolution is NOT a random process. It is deterministic. If we have a planet that supports the formation of life that's highly similar to Earth, that means that (even with random mutation) the environmental selectors are essentially the same. Random mutation on an alien world would face the same selection process as random mutation did on Earth. What was an evolutionary success here, would likely be an evolutionary success there. So we would expect to see such traits emerge as jaws, bi-lateral symmetry, photo/chemosynthesis, spinal columns, etc. If this is the case, then you will see a natural ecology emerging which resembles Earth's rather closely.

DNA/RNA configurations cannot be completely random. They are simply chemistry following some very basic rules resulting in self-assembly into a folding molecule chain. Further, evolution doesn't so much create completely new adaptations - but changes structures of existing adaptations. Hair follicles and feathers are examples of this as both are an adaptation of scales from a primeval reptilian ancestor. So these chemical arrangements of DNA/RNA, following the same rules in a similar environment, may well produce very similar creatures. We may find on alien worlds kingdoms, orders, and phyla of animals and plants which very similar to what we see on Earth. Mammal like creatures, Avian like creatures, Sauropod like creatures. Perhaps not very imaginative, but in my opinion very likely.

Also take this into consideration, that as you look all throughout the the animal kingdom that multiple animals - even with widely divergent ancestry, have evolved similar traits - not due to common ancestory, but due to a common environment. Insects, Birds, and Mammals have all developed adaptations for flight. This doesn't mean that Bees, Sparrows, and Bats all share a recent common ancestor that developed flight - but that each of their separate common ancestors shared a similar environment to which flight was advantageous, a substantial atmosphere

Now, with all of the above in mind, consider an alien species which is evolving on a similar planet, in a similar ecosystem, under similar circumstances. It's not much of a stretch of logic to conclude that similar behavior patters and social interactions we see in animals here on Earth would also develop there. If an intelligent species were to arise in such an environment, it would be likely that it's social behaviors would be at least rooted in the basic behaviors of it's ancestors - much like humans and apes often share similar behavior patterns and social structures.

The point of all this is... that intelligent life in the universe may well be a lot more similar to us that we would often like to fantasize. Aliens who evolved from a territorial species would likely harbor territorial tendencies, just like us, which could be a point of conflict and a potential pitfall for their species.

reply to post by Lasheic




Thanks Lasheic what an interesting post I enjoyed your thoughts

What do you make of this? the so-called 'coincidence problem'

Link

If true then the window of opportunity for life to start anywhere is limited and indeed makes the odds of aliens being here now even less likely - but you can disagree if you wish

I'm not sure I get the whole 'odds' thing.

We live in what appears to be a limitless universe, and we're so advanced we've made it all the way to...the moon! Haha. I think a lot of people think we're this really advanced society, but in my opinion, we probably look pretty primitive to outsiders. I mean, we've only been flying for about a hundred years, our economy is collapsing and we still kill each other over religious beliefs...and that's just the beginning.

A hundred years seems long to us because most of us can only make it into our eighties (and that's if you're healthy!). Imagine an advanced race that can live much, much longer.

Anyway, I guess my point is - If the Universe is a big as we think it is, and we're not so very advanced, don't you think we may be underestimating the rest of our galactic neighbors? I mean think about it. Where will we be in a million years? It's beyond comprehension so how could we possibly imagine what others might be capable of. We shouldn't judge others based on what we're capable of here on earth. If we are being visited - which I think we are - then we are way, way behind those who decided to stop by.

Here is a interesting article posted today on New Scientist which is related to this topic. Well worth a read I was mildly suprised at how much about the Galaxy we seem to know already. To say we don't know enough about outer space seems to be just a question of your source these days!

Search for alien engineering comes up dry – so far

From article: "A search for colossal feats of alien engineering called 'Dyson spheres' has so far found no convincing candidates within 1000 light years of Earth. But some say the prospects for finding the hypothetical structures, which could cocoon stars in order to collect solar energy for power-hungry aliens, may be getting brighter."

visit link for more info

All the "mathematical modules" for determining if there is life in the universe can get stuffed. The prove nothing. I hate it how those scientists say, using this equation we can assume there are 37,000 races in the universe etc. It's actually embarrassing to say that some normal human beings on this planet know more about aliens and alien races than the scientists themselves.

I hate statistics...

Fact is, aliens are here and they have been since the beginning of time.

[edit on 5-12-2008 by The Dave]

Originally posted by The Dave
All the "mathematical modules" for determining if there is life in the universe can get stuffed. The prove nothing.

A few years before the Wright Brothers, a scientist "mathematically proved" it's impossible to fly with anything but a lighter than air balloon.

Originally posted by Graphix10
I'm not sure I get the whole 'odds' thing.

The odds are I believe like this – there is less chance of them being here right now than there is for them being here. Some might say there is a 50/50 chance but that’s no where near correct.

I don't know what the odds actually are that’s the whole argument for the thread. So shall I make a guess (don't come back saying I’m guessing) because that’s all I can do – I say more than a billion to one.

Funny how nowone is addressing the odds ether by guess or calculation at least the scientists have made an attempt.

Originally posted by majestictwo
Funny how nowone is addressing the odds ether by guess or calculation at least the scientists have made an attempt.

Attempting to guess or calculate if aliens are visiting this planet by an abstract mathematical formula is a futile exercise. How about taking a look at the evidence, in the form of declassified govt documents, they are here ?

Originally posted by oinkment
Here is a interesting article posted today on New Scientist which is related to this topic. Well worth a read I was mildly suprised at how much about the Galaxy we seem to know already. To say we don't know enough about outer space seems to be just a question of your source these days!

Search for alien engineering comes up dry – so far

From article: "A search for colossal feats of alien engineering called 'Dyson spheres' has so far found no convincing candidates within 1000 light years of Earth. But some say the prospects for finding the hypothetical structures, which could cocoon stars in order to collect solar energy for power-hungry aliens, may be getting brighter."

visit link for more info

That’s actually a great find “oinkment” and your right it’s worth a read. This is what will address some of the odds issues. Okay let’s say they came up trumps and found what was possibly alien civilisations more than a 1000 light years away.

What are the chances that they could be here right now? First they have to be in existence and not died out, right now. They have to be interested in exploring the galaxy, right now. They may have been here and gone, that means they are not here, right now.

I’m trying to say there is a remote chance but the odds are very unlikly


[edit on 6-12-2008 by majestictwo]

Originally posted by Schaden

Originally posted by majestictwo
Funny how nowone is addressing the odds ether by guess or calculation at least the scientists have made an attempt.

Attempting to guess or calculate if aliens are visiting this planet by an abstract mathematical formula is a futile exercise. How about taking a look at the evidence, in the form of declassified govt documents, they are here ?

Perhaps, but I don't see that we have detected distance civilisations. If we had then I would grant you the chance would be improved. In the mean time pass us the evidence; a link will do that officially confirms it. Until then I believe the chance of them being here right now is really small.

Originally posted by The Dave
All the "mathematical modules" for determining if there is life in the universe can get stuffed. The prove nothing. I hate it how those scientists say, using this equation we can assume there are 37,000 races in the universe etc. It's actually embarrassing to say that some normal human beings on this planet know more about aliens and alien races than the scientists themselves.

I hate statistics...

Fact is, aliens are here and they have been since the beginning of time.

[edit on 5-12-2008 by The Dave]

I like your technical prowess of “get stuffed” While scientist may not be spot on I’m sure there calcs will improve as they get access to more data

You cannot say “fact is” until its confirmed – until then its unlikely

OP - the links you posted are good, in my view. Concerned parties should note they don't rule out the the existence of intelligent life: there are billions of galaxies in the observable universe and billions of stars in each; the odds are good.

However, space is big. Our own galaxy is 100,000 light years across. So - for the sake of argument - an intelligent alien species, travelling at the speed of light, would take 100,000 years simply to cross it. That's a hell of an investment of time and energy for a species.

Many arguments on this subject seem to assume an alien species would be heading for us like a dart. The key thing to remember, though, is that we have only been sending out radio waves for about 100 years or so. Beyond a sphere of about 100 light years, there's really nothing to distinguish our planet from a lifeless one. Nobody could 'hear' us.

Leaving aside the 'aliens made us' scenario, there are only two real ways visitation could be happening:

1) A tenacious alien craft just happened to be pootling through our info sphere at the right time. This is unlikely in itself - like searching for and finding a ball-bearing dropped at random in the ocean - and they would still need to get here afterwards. Even travelling at the speed of light, it would probably take back-up thousands of years to arrive.

2) More likely that exploratory ships: probes. Send them out in all directions, have them self-replicate, absorbing resources from wherever they land and flinging out new probes. It wouldn't take too long (in context) to colonise a galaxy, and it only takes one alien civilisation to do this. But we don't see evidence of that around us, and it seems likely we would. Regardless, there needs to be a probe in our info sphere, and any actual visitors will take thousands of years to arrive.

So the odds are incalculable, but they do seem unlikely to me, given what we know.

[edit on 6-12-2008 by damagedoor]

reply to post by damagedoor


Very well put “damagedoor” I don't think I can add much to that at this stage.

Let me confirm again I am not suggesting they don't exist. I’m right on everyone’s side who believe except I don't believe they are here right now.

The notion they have been here for all time is a little hard to swallow. Those who promote this angle should suggest why they are here all the time – I don't see it but I’m willing to listen.

I will concede they may have been here in the past.

Originally posted by Havoc40k
Why would they travel so very far just to shove some needles into various parts of 'ole Clem the cattle-rancher? And why stay here for hundreds of years, doing the same thing?

Alien Exobiology class 101 Every year a new batch of students..

Like we dissect frogs in our school biology class... a new batch every year

Bend over probe only hurts if you struggle

Originally posted by majestictwo

Originally posted by Graphix10
I'm not sure I get the whole 'odds' thing.

The odds are I believe like this – there is less chance of them being here right now than there is for them being here. Some might say there is a 50/50 chance but that’s no where near correct.

I don't know what the odds actually are that’s the whole argument for the thread. So shall I make a guess (don't come back saying I’m guessing) because that’s all I can do – I say more than a billion to one.

Funny how nowone is addressing the odds ether by guess or calculation at least the scientists have made an attempt.

Okay, well call me crazy, but aren't UFO reports at an all-time high? We now have mass sightings over large cities and airports. We have retired astronauts now saying we are definitely in contact with alien beings. We have many, many seemingly credible people claiming to have been abducted by aliens...most with similar accounts of their experience. We have the Vatican calling them "Space Brothers". We have countless numbers of high ranking, respectable military personnel and government officials claiming that we've had contact for years. We have military, commercial and private pilots telling us that something is going on in the skies. We have nuclear missile sites being shut down by "floating orbs". We have unexplained aerial phenomena taking place in Sedona AZ and Gilliand Ranch in Washington. I don't know man, it sounds like the odds are definitely in FAVOR of them being here now more than ever.

I think you better call your bookie. I'm going all in on this one.

PS - The House always wins.

Originally posted by damagedoor
OP - the links you posted are good, in my view. Concerned parties should note they don't rule out the the existence of intelligent life: there are billions of galaxies in the observable universe and billions of stars in each; the odds are good.

However, space is big. Our own galaxy is 100,000 light years across. So - for the sake of argument - an intelligent alien species, travelling at the speed of light, would take 100,000 years simply to cross it. That's a hell of an investment of time and energy for a species.

Many arguments on this subject seem to assume an alien species would be heading for us like a dart. The key thing to remember, though, is that we have only been sending out radio waves for about 100 years or so. Beyond a sphere of about 100 light years, there's really nothing to distinguish our planet from a lifeless one. Nobody could 'hear' us.

Leaving aside the 'aliens made us' scenario, there are only two real ways visitation could be happening:

1) A tenacious alien craft just happened to be pootling through our info sphere at the right time. This is unlikely in itself - like searching for and finding a ball-bearing dropped at random in the ocean - and they would still need to get here afterwards. Even travelling at the speed of light, it would probably take back-up thousands of years to arrive.

2) More likely that exploratory ships: probes. Send them out in all directions, have them self-replicate, absorbing resources from wherever they land and flinging out new probes. It wouldn't take too long (in context) to colonise a galaxy, and it only takes one alien civilisation to do this. But we don't see evidence of that around us, and it seems likely we would. Regardless, there needs to be a probe in our info sphere, and any actual visitors will take thousands of years to arrive.

So the odds are incalculable, but they do seem unlikely to me, given what we know.

[edit on 6-12-2008 by damagedoor]

Damagedoor, like so many others, you're thinking in terms of what WE, as human beings, are capable of. Try thinking outside the box on this stuff. Most of you guys get too caught up in the whole bit about traveling light years, distance, speed, blah blah blah. Think ahead....waaayyy ahead.

Forget about speed and distance for a minute. What if.....what if an advanced civilization (or several) had figured out how to travel without considering distance, speed, time, etc.? Now I'm saying "what if...". Perhaps they could bend time and space or maybe even developed some sort of transporter, ala Star trek. If you accept that possibility then you have to let go of the whole 'time, distance and speed thing', ok. Forget about it for now. Let's assume they are here. So, if we accept that, then we start looking at "why". Why would they come here? I'm guessing there would be lots of reasons. One reason they would come here...because they can. If we could travel to any planet, even in our own solar system, we would go there even if we knew it was a barren wasteland (the moon)! If we knew there was life on a planet, and we could transport there, oh man - that we be our first stop! You know it's true.

Come on, guys - speed, distance, light years...? They've figured all that stuff out, we haven't. In a million years we will... they just have a head start.

Anyway, that was a little off topic, but you get my point. I just think many of us never consider how much a civilization could advance in say... a million years. I do know that in the last few hundred years we've gone from throwing rocks at each other and riding in horse carriages, to the capability of dropping mega-ton nuclear weapons and flying in supersonic jets. That sounds like a big change to me but that's just my opinion.

[edit on 6-12-2008 by Graphix10]

[edit on 6-12-2008 by Graphix10]

reply to post by Graphix10


Graphix - there's a difference between 'thinking outside the box' and just 'making stuff up'. If you want to talk about travel without talking about distance, speed and time, I'm at a loss to think what words you would use. What do you think travel is?

For what it's worth, teleportation is no good. Information still has to be transmitted, and it's not going to go faster than light. At the end of the process, the information needs to be assembled with material resources. Even without the philosophical problem of identity thrown in - would it still be you at the end of the process? - teleportation is rubbish.

Wormholes, I might just about accept as a possibility, as (purely theoretically) they permit the appearance of faster-than-light travel. However, you still have the problem of 'how did they find us?' to answer.

Seriously. Imagine a ball-bearing in the ocean. Is the ability to teleport going to help you find it?

[edit on 6-12-2008 by damagedoor]

Originally posted by majestictwo
reply to post by damagedoor

 

Very well put “damagedoor” I don't think I can add much to that at this stage.

Let me confirm again I am not suggesting they don't exist. I’m right on everyone’s side who believe except I don't believe they are here right now.

The notion they have been here for all time is a little hard to swallow. Those who promote this angle should suggest why they are here all the time – I don't see it but I’m willing to listen.

I will concede they may have been here in the past.

Friend, most people look from a statistical and hard nosed point of view; calculating odds on a subject like this is impossible for we do not have enough of the variables to use as a benchmark, but this is good for a decent arguement back and forth.

as for proof, that must be considered subjective also; most people do not accept anything as proof unless it takes a bite out of them or they have to move it out of the driveway.

but that also means that everyone claiming ebe's don't exist do not have empirical proof, either.

proof is subjective to each of us, but for all the common man knows 50% of his neighbors might be from another world; I could claim I am an alien and subject myself to public testing; how would you prove I am not?

just my 2 cents.

seeker

Originally posted by the seeker_713g
proof is subjective to each of us, but for all the common man knows 50% of his neighbors might be from another world; I could claim I am an alien and subject myself to public testing; how would you prove I am not?

I wouldn't attempt to prove you weren't. The burden of proof, quite correctly, is on the person making the claim. And extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.