The "up-to-the-minute Market Data" thread

I suppose they were not brought to Italy in the Ark of Covenant like coffer?

Nobody talks...

Originally posted by Rockpuck
reply to post by marg6043

 

Like I said many, many pages back.. as summer approaches, and especially in fall.. the Unemployment will start going down, continued claims will shrink ......

Because people are getting knocked off.

Not by choice.. as Job losses are beating New Jobs 10:1 right now..

This is the beginning, our future looks brighter when we sweep our people in distress under the rug.

yup and as i have said before that will lead to the big earnings "mystery" on Main street media financial channels

that is the one true stat they can't Manipulate (except in financals) they may try) but they know what traders and managers look at

they can fudge GDP.......they can fudge (unemployment many ways).....they can fudge many other things .............and since they act like they believe all their manipulated lies ........they will probably act "befudled "when all their doctored indicators look better yet earnings keep sliding.....along w/ home prices

[edit on 18-6-2009 by cpdaman]

reply to post by cpdaman


Yes, I have been wondering how they where going to get out of that trap when it comes around.

Q1 profits sucked big time, no one doubts it, yet the stock market took off to the moon .. S&P has never had a wider Profit to Index pricing.

When Q2 comes around it should be another major loss.. (should be, if we have been correct in our theories).

They could play up the Deflation card.. that the economy is really rebounding, and go into details about how "items" sold where higher than last quarter, but profits lower due to lower price per item.

Anyways, that's the excuse they used in Q4 earnings of 08.

It would show that consumers where still buying, and buying more, and that a "turn around" is on it's way.

Has anyone noticed "Economy near bottom, Economy rebounding, Economy set to take off" has been the Economic headline for the past 4 months?

Anyways, I like to think Hedge Fund managers are smart, and that they know all of this, they know it's a sham. They know Q2 is going to blow. But I presume to assume they also understand it's a game. I don't think you can stretch the price of shares in relation to profits any wider, eventually it has to snap. Or hell, maybe the numbers won't be so bad? Historically Q1-2 are the worst Q's for profit.

Dear God.. imagine.. if unemployment continues at this pace, the hell that will be Q4 earnings on the S&P next year? This could be the Black Christmas From Hell.

The market is usually set up to hurt the most people at one time.

Should be interesting.

I dont know (nor does anyone) one way or another, but you can bet against the majority IMO and come out quite well most likely.

reply to post by Rockpuck

This could be the Black Christmas From Hell.

...or a White Christmas from Heaven if financial collapse brings decent home & family-loving people together in a new way.

Ever the optimist! (Though you never guessed it from this thread )



FTSE 100 4280.86 up 2.40 0.06%

DJIA 8558.02 up 60.84 0.72%

Source

reply to post by GreenBicMan

Either I think this was set up to try to draw attention to the US Currency disinformation campaign being propagated by foreign governments

The amount the bonds were worth according to this story was coincidentally the same as the March 30th remaining US TARP funds. Asia is not happy about their US debt being devalued and QE2 would cause any country holding US bonds to lose money. This must have been some kind of foreign disinformation program to put pressure on the US over our credit easing. Question is, why did the US wait 10 days before killing off the rumors? Did US intelligence want to watch the public reaction?

Anyone have any hard numbers that explains how many unemployed workers expired their benefits without finding work? The window for filing unemployment claims stretches only about 6 months from initial job loss doesn't it? Real sad.

reply to post by fromunclexcommunicate


I think you are on the right track there.

Way too much coincidental stuff going on.

Either:

A) We waited as you said to see the reaction

B) We did this ourselves as a nice little experiment

C) 99% of this is disinformation and nothing happened as it is told


But I really think this is part of the disinformation campaign being propagated right now by foreign governments...

Originally posted by pause4thought
reply to post by Rockpuck

 

This could be the Black Christmas From Hell.

...or a White Christmas from Heaven if financial collapse brings decent home & family-loving people together in a new way.

Ever the optimist! (Though you never guessed it from this thread

)

That is the only healthy way to look at this mess..


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[edit on 18-6-2009 by RolandBrichter]

Perhaps it is connected to this operation:

N. Korea general tied to forged $100 bills

North Korean Gen. O Kuk-ryol, who was recently promoted to the country's powerful National Defense Commission, and several of his family members are said to be in charge of producing the fake $100 bills, which are so carefully crafted that they are difficult to tell apart from real U.S. banknotes.

www.washingtontimes.com...

There are North Koreans who have Japanese passports, born in Japan. The report from Italy only said those were Japanese citizens.

reply to post by fromunclexcommunicate

Anyone have any hard numbers that explains how many unemployed workers expired their benefits without finding work? The window for filing unemployment claims stretches only about 6 months from initial job loss doesn't it? Real sad.

No, no one watches that kind of information. We do know that benefits last one year (Bush extended the benefits) and that after 1 year of unemployment you are knocked out of U3 readings and are labeled a "discouraged worker".

What we will see next month is June unemployment increased by a few hundred thousand (inevitable) but that fewer people are actually collecting benefits.

If job growth is negative, claims should be positive, when both are negative it means more and more are falling off the readings. A family receiving unemployment can still pay their mortgage, or their car payment, feed themselves and even have enough to go out every now and then.. live as normal as possible subsidized by savings and the insurance. Take the insurance away from 500 thousand plus a month and you will really see what Deflation looks like in this country.

It will be... extraordinary.

reply to post by Rockpuck


I could be wrong but I believe they would roll over onto the U6, which is the only one I look at anyway since it's a bit 'closer' to the truth.

reply to post by HimWhoHathAnEar


U5 would be the best source of information in regards to amount of people completely unemployed.

U6 also adds "Employed Part Time for Economic Reasons" .. I find this can be misleading in that there is no actual survey "hey, are you employed part time for personal reasons, economic reasons, is this a second job, third job, only job, are you going back to school, watching the kids and you needed a shorter schedule, etc etc etc.."

U5 adds all unemployed minus part timers, and is usually a few basis points lower then U6 .. U6 is great for measuring the healthiness of the economy as a whole though, no better index to watch. But I think watching U5 in relation to falling unemployment, or a discontinuation of benefits is the best index to watch, as far as % growth in comparison to % growth of U3.

If U3 shrinks while U4-6 grow, then I would consider that extremely alarming.. and it is possible. When we get into October we will be seeing hundreds of thousands rolling off benefits unless Congress adds more time .. which I certainly hope they don't.

reply to post by Rockpuck


This article may help clear it up for some...
Dated June 16th..the article goes over just how Labor calculates their figures...but I found the clip below interesting..

Confusing Unemployment Numbers

The employment data in this recession shows a number of divergences from other recession of the past 40 years. These divergences include:

* The historic relationship between the Birth/Death adjustment and the GDP is massively out of whack. Either GDP will be corrected drastically upward (as much as 6% annualized for the first quarter 2009); or the Birth/Death adjustment has added too many jobs to the employment rolls (too many by 100,000 or more).

* The average duration of unemployment is well above all previous records (since 1948). Since this statistic peaks well after a recession ends, average duration of unemployment may reach levels much higher, possibly 50% or more above previous post World War II recessions.

* The number of people in forced part-time positions is currently between 50% and 100% higher than previous recessions since 1964. This also generally peaks well after a recession ends and

As Rockpuck alludes, the real unemployment figures are WAY worse than U3 or U6 indicates...From my personal experience ( my job takes me all over the US in major metro areas) things are a HELL of alot worse than indicated...









[edit on 18-6-2009 by RolandBrichter]

reply to post by Rockpuck

I guess the reason I choose U6 is that the numbers are still scewed by the gov't so the part time thing just makes up for some of that. I think the gov't better do something about extending unemployment quick before hundreds of thousands of people become really desperate. If they can spend, uh I mean Print, Trillions for banks then they better help the unemployed.

reply to post by HimWhoHathAnEar


It takes them hundreds of thousands of employees and 10 years to get a full and semi accurate account of the entire population ...

I seriously doubt they have the ability to, once a month, or sure as hell not weekly, get a semi accurate or partially full account of total unemployed.

Having been unemployed, no one has since asked me "are you unemployed, if so for how long?" .. I would never accept any form of Federal assistance, so I am not counted on "unemployed benefits, continuing claims, first time claim" etc..

We think the government is All Powerful, ever seeing and infaliable.. well, most not on ATS anyways... in reality they are bumbling idiots with a 3rd rate approach to get an accurate reading, in all reality it would be far more realistic if they just printed a memo each month that said "F* if I know" on the unemployment reports.

Honestly, the best reading for unemployment, underemployment, or the general deterioration of the job market is Tax Revenue.. even that won't give us an "exact" number though, and that's once a year.

I thought this relevent to this thread, 'Cause I like ya'll .. and GBM, I ain't pickin on ya. In all actuality, I believe almost everyone here believes the same as me. Perhaps this will help explain our seemingly deep distrust for .. "official" numbers.

reply to post by GreenBicMan


Well, since I don't know the name of these people, I will choose to ignore them

I worked for a big company, F500, not on any index, it was Mutually Owned, but it had amazing profits. Allllll the way up till .... 2008.

We sat in front of the CEO, and he assured us, oh the profits where big, the money was plenty, the plans were ideal.

Mmm.... invested to much in real estate, turns out the money wasn't so plenty.

So I went to work for Citi .. well those guys have to be able to get it right, hell every economic pun is from Citi, Jp, or Goldman.

Watching 50k loose their jobs was.. insightful.

All in all ..

I think I have been hardened to despise anyone who proclaims themselves an economist while being associated with any major financial institution, any institution that connects them selves to said institutions, or any proclaimed economist who does not display detailed research or reasoning behind said remarks. Because, call me cold and distant to these bastards, most are paid to say what they say. While CEO's and investment funds tell you everything is peachy they are stuffing their suits with cash with one foot out the door hailing their drivers with tickets to the Caribbean in hand.

Maybe the economy will turn around. Maybe we will see a new era of prosperity with Obama's green jobs. Maybe unemployment really is easing. God knows we all want recovery, we have already suffered the worst recession in known memory.

But I just have that nagging feeling... that rational, calculated logical voice in my head that's whispering ".....they're liiiieeeeiinnnnggg"

July 18th, 2008

Bush says economy is fine as inflation reaches historic levels

"I think the system basically is sound, I truly do," Bush said. "And I understand there’s a lot of nervousness. . . . But the economy is growing, productivity is high, trade is up, people are working. It’s not as good as we’d like, but . . . to the extent that we find weakness, we’ll move." Bush joked that he had now heard of $4.00 per gallon gas, after he notoriously denied any knowledge of those forecasts in a press briefing in March.

October 8th, 2008

Bush says "Economy will be Just Fine"

"I believe that in the long run, this economy is going to be just fine," Bush said. In the short term, he said the Treasury Department must go about enacting its plan to buy up troubled assets from financial firms so that credit will start flowing again to consumers.

September 19th, 2008

Bush says "Economy is Fine!"



See... and that was to easy.

All the way till the crash "It's all good you ignorant fools the economy is fine!" Have not heard of the Bush's suffering any severe economic down turn due to being so heavily invested..... oh wait.... those lines where just for us, were they not?

Greenbicmac: Don't listen to shills. That includes anyone with any form of "official" title, name, association, institution, fund, what ever. Listen to the Independents.. because the one thing they will never take from us is this....... We were right all along!

[edit on 6/19/2009 by Rockpuck]

Forget market gains this week I've been been reading some rather distresing news...
Retailers Head for the Exits

DETROIT -- They call this the Motor City, but you have to leave town to buy a Chrysler or a Jeep.

Borders Inc. was founded 40 miles away, but the only one of the chain's bookstores here closed this month.

No national grocery chain operates a store here.

The city's 22.8% unemployment rate is among the highest in the U.S.; 30% of residents are on food stamps.

"As the city loses so much, the tax base shrinks and the city has to cut back services,"

Or how about this news blip
Worse than Subprime

Analysts put the current default rate on option ARMs at 35 percent or higher.

blistering pace of foreclosure filings — more than 1 million from March to May alone.

Barclays Capital estimates that at least 37.5 percent of option ARMs originated in 2005 remain outstanding, as well as 63 percent of those originated in 2006 and 82 percent that originated in 2007. Deb and fellow Barclays analysts forecast a 38 percent loss rate for pools of option ARMs originated in 2006 and 48 percent losses for those issued in 2007.

Todays head line was "Crude Oil Rises a Third Day as U.S. Data Shows Recession Ebbing". but yesterday we had this over looked story...
Obama still concerned about oil speculation

Sen. Bernie Sanders, Independent of Vermont, introduced legislation last week that would order the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to use its emergency powers to stop market speculators from pushing up oil prices.

No, I think things are about to change very quickly now and not in a good way

[edit on 19-6-2009 by DaddyBare]

Posted in another topic, but it bears repeating...

Salesmen are salesmen....Mad Money, Mad Men, Boiler Room, Greenspan, Paulson, Summers, Bernanke, Geithner, Bush, Clinton, Bush Obama...etc...

Been there and done that...

Some of us are sick and tired of being "sold", and we see right through it..

Not gonna buy it...wouldn't be prudent at this juncture...

We all must learn our own lessons, good luck to you!

reply to post by DangerDeath


This no new, China and many other Asian nations love to counterfeit US dollars.

But so far China is the biggest counterfeiters of everything.

reply to post by Rockpuck


This remind me the guy from Iraq during the Iraqi war that kept going in the cameras to tell that it was not invasion of Iraq but you could see the bombings behind his back.



Bush was just the same clown, having his face pasted in from of the cameras telling everybody that the America economy was solid while the decimation of the financial was happening behind his back.