STRATFOR: Signs that Israel/U.S. Preparing for Iranian/Syria War

Well, as we say in the conspiracy biz, here we go again...

This time though, the messanger has a lot of credibility behind it.

Stratfor.com, a geopolitical analysis firm staffed with lots of former CIA-ers, has issued a report saying that there have been concrete signs since February that both the U.S. and Israel are preparing for a war. And while the potential enemy list can be one of three players -- Hezbollah, Syria and Iran -- there seems to be more indication that war will happen with Syria and a limited one with Iran.

The signs are startling, and some I even missed:

1. U.S. increased strategic petro reserve supply when prices and regular supply made such a move counterproductive.
   
2. Israel assassinated Hezbollah leader in Syria.
   
3. U.S. parks naval strike force off Lebanese coast.
   
4. Syrian armored and troop build-up along Bekaa Valley in response to massive Israeli military "exercize."
   
5. Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak canceled a scheduled visit to Germany this week.
   
6. Israel plans to reveal publically it bombed a nuke facility in Syria last year --- and that Iran was a supplier!
   
7. null
   

While not pointed out by Stratfor, I would wager to say that the "pause" in troop declines in Iraq could also be in preparation for tighter security in the event Israel bombs the hell out of Iran. I personally have a friend who has just been deployed there who said all the buzz is an attack on Iran before year's end.

Stratfor doesn't go all the way and say it's inevitable, or even if they're correct. But something's amiss and about to happen -- and my two-cents is that we're readying a strike against Iran.

I can see Israel attacking Iranian nuclear facilities in the future. I can see a conflict with Hizballah in Lebanon in the future. I can not see a war with Syria because i do not see a reason. What Israel will gain from this conflict - rockets heavily damaging civilian infrastructure and crippling economy - for what- removing Assad? Not worth it. What US will gain? What Syria will gain (Golan heights possibly if succeeds vs Assad dead possibly if fails?). However i may see a limited Syrian involvement if Israeli strike in Iran will be heavily retaliated by Iran,Syria, Hizballah and Hamas. Even then i do not see Syria starting full blown war.

I would add that the chess pieces being set up by Israel and the U.S. go beyond the Mideast.

Remember that surprisingly successful satellite shootdown a couple of months ago? That's our new, undeclared missile shield...kinda a warning to Russia and a lesser extent China to back off when the attacks begin.

reply to post by ZeroKnowledge


The problem is that whatever Chess game my politicians are playing, the army is the people. So if anyone calls me up to attack ,say, China
i would doubt my participation. As far as i understand our political chess board is our little (but not quiet,for sure) pond called Middle East. I really can not see how government here enrolls its citizens into war with Syria.
In the future when robots will fight and we all will seat in shelters under missiles or whatever, the options might be different, but now big guys have to ensure that cannon folder is willing to participate in the wars.

Anything on Iran would have to be limited...Air and Navy power..Use up whatever is left..Shock & ..what about Russa ?..Did they say anything about helping Syria if Isreal pounds on them ?...what is the matter with "those" people ?..Israel has the nerve to crab about Iran's nuk program...When they have nuks and tell the U.N. it's none of there biss..What's up with that.?..I think Israel has always been nasty,..down right inhuman towards Arabs,...but, in todays day and age...cameras everywhere..they look bad...very bad...If I ran gets hit...Syria will be to..Abig "clean-out" before Bu$h goes home......get your duck tape and plastic ready...

Originally posted by behindthescenes

A. U.S. increased strategic petro reserve supply when prices and regular supply made such a move counterproductive.

Hi BTS. Just a brief comment or two with respect to point A.

Certainly counterproductive to moderating futures prices.

From your Stratfor Report: Back in February, the United States started purchasing oil for its Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).

Actually, the DOE initiated their ongoing regime of SPR deposits several months earlier...beginning back in September 07 with 8.6MM-bbls...then an additional 13MM-bbls beginning in February.

Given that the DOE' own "official" projections call for lower oil prices at the end of 08, why the urgency to max SPR coffers near $100-bbl?

My guess...either the admin is front-running what they expect (in-reality) will be higher prices next year...or they are prepping for the possibility of expected/unexpected, near-term supply disruptions. Heavy Fall hurricane season?...War?

Oct-18-2007

Administration Plan to Fill Strategic Petroleum Reserve Questioned

(WASHINGTON, D.C.) - On the day that the price of oil reached an all-time high of $89.55 per barrel, seven U.S. Senators questioned the Administration’s decision to reduce oil supplies by diverting millions of barrels of oil to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

"We are writing to express our extreme concern at the Department of Energy’s continued deposits of oil into the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) despite record high crude oil prices and to respectfully request that you immediately postpone further deliveries.....

The Energy Department in September deposited 2.6 million barrels of oil into the SPR and reportedly plans to remove another 6 million barrels from the market and place them into the SPR over the next few months. This action sends a message to the market place that the Administration is comfortable with current price levels, and can only add to U.S. crude oil prices and the prices of related commodities. In addition, last week the Department issued another solicitation for additional deposits of 13 million barrels into the SPR beginning next February. Unless the Department changes the manner in which it manages this program, the removal of another 13 million barrels of oil from the market could fuel further increases in oil prices in the spring and summer of 2008." Full Text

Before placing all of the blame for $100 oil on OPEC producers, and nebulous futures speculators...maybe we should look a little closer to home

reply to post by ZeroKnowledge

I can not see a war with Syria because i do not see a reason.

I can see a good reason: Water.

By Israel authority their land is running out of water reserves by the end of this year. Water is a very good reason, and have stayed in top at speculations for the real reasons of next war against Syria.

Originally posted by ZeroKnowledge
I can not see a war with Syria because i do not see a reason.

Theres no McDonalds link of map with McD's

remember that ol saying ? The us won't go to war with a country with a McDonalds?