World Markets Plunge - DJIA Futures Down Nearly 500 Points

DJIA just bounced up from an interday low of 317 to come back to 250 hopefully , this starts a positive trend which can play out for the rest of the day.

European Markets finished down 2-4% eliminating many of the gains from yesterday's short cover rall/bounce.

IF the dow finishes today with only minimum damage ,then asian markets may stabalize, however if the dow is down more than yesterday, asian markets could see alot of their gains from yesterday dissapear as well.

However it should be noted that so far these stock market drops (dating back to Q4 are just slightly more than what is considered a mimimal correction, the question is how much comfort and confidence does that instill in the future?

I've read a few articles lately which predict or hint that alternativive energy usage will grow much more rapidly than in the last few years, and that "clean technology" will likely provide a large amount of jobs, and growth which will help unemployement levels which have the potential to spiral downward. wether we first have to fall off a cliff to impliment this is unanswered.

the following is pure speculation

I further postulate that since the OIL game is responsible for the west's dependency on middle east state's such as Saudi Arabia and that the growth of these petro dollar sponsored Soverign Wealth Funds has shifted the advantage the U.S has in this relationship down and increasingly so and that "clean tech" may be a politically motivated move to weaken the influence that OPEC OIL (ME coutnry's) has now and that the United states is in a weaker postition than it has been used to regarding who is gaining power from the petro dollar system, and that a revolution in clean technology would weaken middle eastern influence and ownership in the world economy (which right now is growing rapidly) , this trend may trigger a necessary step back the u.s will have to take since they will no longer enjoy such a huge financial benefit from a monopoly on energy trade, however this step may be necessary for the economy to live) and that this necessary step back and easing of dependace and importance of oil may be necessary to maintain their capacity's to influence the world instead of the other way around (which otherwise the trend toward Eastern SWF's would continue taking place) The growing clean tech movement may redistribute power in a more balanced way toward the G7 nations, and may be born out of a financial system "cleansing".

perhaps some great buying opportunity's there late in the year , when markets settle

edit dow moved up to down 125.

[edit on 23-1-2008 by cpdaman]

[edit on 23-1-2008 by cpdaman]

Originally posted by Vitchilo

Also there's the factor of the runs on the banks... my brother in Canada works in one of the biggest bank and he said that he received hundreds of phone calls in the last 2 days because the people were asking to remove all their money, well his boss told him to refuse because it could lead to the bankruptcy of the bank and the world economy. If there's a run on the banks in the US, it's over, the house of cards will fall to the ground and the US dollar will be worth 5% what it is worth now. Old people with pension funds will be homeless and there will be blood in the streets.

[edit on 23-1-2008 by Vitchilo]

Please keep us posted on this, since your brother works in a major bank. I believe this is going on, but we're not hearing about it. If anyone else posting here works in a bank and has any personal information like this, please keep us informed regularly. In fact, Vitchilo, you might consider starting a new thread, asking if people have information like this to offer.

reply to post by Vitchilo


This is recession 2008

Yes you are right we are in recession already,

We have become a nation in debt- from personal savings rates that hit a post Great Depression low of negative .5% in 2005 to a growing national deficit propped up by foreign nations. At the same time, our manufacturing base has been decimated and rendered unable to compete in the world, closing down factories and putting American’s into lower paying service jobs with poorer benefits. Still more, Americans were lured by teaser mortgage rates to buy the unaffordable, and deceived by skyrocketing housing values to believe they were worth more than they actually were.

This is not a interest rate fix anymore this a credit crunch problem.

www.economyincrisis.org...

California loan defaults hit 15-year high
Default notices were up 114 percent in the fourth quarter - compared to 2006 - the highest level since 1992, says report.

money.cnn.com...

Budget deficit expected to reach $250B
Slowing economy and cost of wars are expected to send the 2008 budget deficit to $250 billion, compared with $163 billion last year.

money.cnn.com...

For Millions Of Americans, Economic Crisis Is Old News

www.opednews.com...

Yes this recession 2008




[edit on 23-1-2008 by marg6043]

I don't know what caused this or if it will hold until close but it was refreshing to see numbers like these for a change:


As it Type:

DJIA 12,168.64 197.45 1.65%
NASDAQ 2,303.37 11.10 0.48%
S&P 500 1,328.38 17.88

Bear market rally.

I don't even try to predict where the market is going when its like this.

reply to post by Dulcimer


It has been very volatile, at one point down over 300pts to this climb +263 as I type.

Almost 600 pt swing.

If interested to see realtime DOW chart :

beta.finance.aol.com...

Originally posted by JSR
I would like to pose a question to our more market savvy posters. why is gold going down right now? is it just a natural short pull back or what?

I thought gold was were the money went in times of trouble and uncertainty. where is all the smart money moving right now?

Here is the gig on gold. Russia has tons of, so does Africa, but that is not the kicker in the past 15 years mining companies have found ways to use satellite images and computers to pinpoint high yield gold mines by finding particular colors, and earth geological patterns.

Tons of gold has been mined, more than the market can handle. Now some of these companies are cashing in. It is the same issue with Diamonds but Debeers has a tighter grip on that particular market, thus allowing almost complete control on pricing. Diamonds would be almost worthless if they release all the diamond reserves.

Originally posted by Dulcimer
Bear market rally.

I don't even try to predict where the market is going when its like this.

I know that we are going to see many "Dead Cat Bounces" in this market, but it will stabilize at around the mid 9000's IMO.

All of the Subprime fraud has to be accounted for and it didn't just happen in the USA, but all over the world. It is only now the all crap is floating to the surface and being seen.

This market has no legs and investors know this deep down. No matter how much people BS themselves that inner voice is telling them to be concerned.


[edit on 23-1-2008 by Realtruth]

Stock market is up big time, gold is down, oil is down. What happened to the forecasted depression/economic disaster? I'm sure someone will claim.."ITS COMING" - but if you say it enough, it will eventually happen.

Investors are fleeing areas they flock too during actual depressions, and the stock market is going up. Note I still think a recession is on the way or is already here, I just don't believe in any sort of financial Armageddon.

reply to post by JacKatMtn


Don't let this fool you is a lot of private investors selling out and at the same time is more of them buying out.

This is going to keep the markets up and down for a while and will deceive many.

The panic is become a trend.

Originally posted by Dulcimer
Bear market rally.....

....equals Bull Trap. This explains the run-up in financials yesterday. Connected cognoscenti strike again

Lets see what the regulators cook-up...and who gets served as the main-course

Ambac, MBIA extend gains as regulators meet

The only thing I really watch these days is soft commodities. The price of canola took a ding today, down around 14.

reply to post by marg6043


I am actually just learning all about this financial markets, theories etc.

Like brand new baby, I have been pating attention to all the news and markets, and really paying attention to all the ATS members chiming in with their information.

It is fascinating to me, I am not an investor, but I am trying to take advantage of the current situation, and learn a little more on how this all works.

At least this way I can be more aware of what's going on since the markets obviously impact me even if I am not invested.

Today was like a rollercoaster ride, I am guessing by the responses that it is something that happens from time to time during a bear market.

Many thanks again to the members for helping me to learn this whole process

A Bear Market is kind to no one. Though the long term trend is down it is known for huge swings both ways. A bear market is brutal to bulls because of the down days and bears because of the rallies. I'm not trading it because the swings are too violent.

On the monolines, the rumors/news about a possible bailout/cash infusion seems to be the impetus for this rally. I don't think it will hold once details are out. Anyone remember the Super SIV fund they were talking about back in October? Personally I'd like to see it run for a few days, so that it would be cheaper to get back in on the short side. I don't think we'll see a true bottom till we have either one of the monolines or one of the IB's go bankrupt.

If anyone wants to learn about the markets etc and they are in Canada, check to see if you get the television channel BNN.

www.bnn.ca...

I find it to be among the best out there.

reply to post by jefwane


That is the key here, we are having a lot of under the table infusions that are trying very hard to bail the markets out until the trend runs out of stem or just settle down and everybody is save.

But the one factor here that we should keep an eye on is that so far this is only working on the day to day basic.

When the infusions runs out and the crap hit the roof with all the money still unaccounted for, do to the loses on mortgages, and all that is attach to it in the global market, starts to show their ugly face then is not more bailing out, we learn to deal with it and go on with our lives.

But the deception on keeping the markets working and looking up is not doing anything to fix the real problems facing our economy.

I say let it be, lets deal with and perhaps start thinking about a brighter future.

But how much does our politics play in all these to save face in election years is still to much to comprehend.





[edit on 23-1-2008 by marg6043]

Originally posted by LightinDarkness
Stock market is up big time, gold is down, oil is down. What happened to the forecasted depression/economic disaster? I'm sure someone will claim.."ITS COMING" - but if you say it enough, it will eventually happen.

I wouldn't pat myself on the back if I were you. Just as easily the next time the market is down 300 points (which will be within a week at this pace) someone else will jump on here and say I told you so. This up 300 one day and down 300 the next is way too volatile. Everything you are seeing now is being driven by irrational behavior and speculation. This situation is a chess game that will take a year or more to play out. The worst of the subprime fallouts have yet to even hit, yet alone the further damage to the dollar from the mass lowering of interest rates. Ping us in a year from now and if all is well then you can tell us all that you told us so!

reply to post by OBE1


Thanks for the link, I am just speculating about who and how the markets are keep afloat right now.

You just brought it very nicely and in plain words for the consumption of the still skeptical.

Yes is people, firms and very influential marketers watchers trying all they can to bail out the markets for now, once the interest rates and fed infusions in the US didn't help much.

The question is how long this will last and how far they are willing to bail out until these losing trend is over.

Thanks again for the informative link.

You are the expert here in my books.

Originally posted by marg6043
reply to post by OBE1

 

I am just speculating about who and how the markets are keep afloat right now.

be very wary
it's not gonna last
it can't, you can only put so many band-aids
on a balloon.

But on a good note:
How bout them Patriots ???

reply to post by SimonSays


Well we most think about that big meeting behind close doors on Monday, also that bigger meeting in Europe yesterday.

So perhaps the patriots are working hard but I say is a lot of foreign interest in the working here.