Captured al-Zarqawi Intel To Facilitate US Iraq Withdrawal By Mid 2008

An alternative interpretation of the captured information (if it is authenticated) would be that coallition forces are winning the war in Iraq and that present policies there are working. This clearly represents good news for President Bush and Prime Minister Tony Blair.

[edit on 15-6-2006 by Astronomer70]

Astronomer is correct. As cynical as I am, I can admit that's possible also.

The administration and Pentagon have always refused to put a timetable on withdrawal in order to prevent an insurgency from simply sitting back and waiting. I can see that being a useful tactic in the event of success in the field as well as the opposite.

OK ... That time old question ... Has the Iraqi government just got alot to learn about information and using it the correct way. When you have the upper hand on the enemy you don't let them know you went in and what you found. Especially the thumb drive you found in his pocket. At least not with an extremist operation such as Al Queda ??? What are they thinking .... WHAT WERE THEY THINKING !!!!????

Originally posted by subz
Included in the 'huge treasure" of information captured are computer records and documents

While this sounds nice on the surface, and makes for compelling video on the evening news, I highly doubt we actually found any intelligence... the "conspiracy theorist" in me smells deception.

If we really discovered important intelligence in this operation, no intel agent past his first few weeks on the job would ever reveal to the public that important information was gathered in an operation.

This is an orchestrated event people.

That's precisely the problem I'm having with it SO, it seems almost too good to actually be true. I hope it is true, but I will await further developments. I am also mindful that politicians, not professional intelligence agents, are the ones putting out this info.

[edit on 15-6-2006 by Astronomer70]

Agreed SO, whatever happened to all the times that we were told, "we can't tell you, because telling you, would mean also telling the terrorists"? Why now would we be fed info that is super great intel? Makes no sense to me whatsoever. It is not logical, or at least it does not fall into the logic used to this point with this war.

Originally posted by SkepticOverlord
While this sounds nice on the surface, and makes for compelling video on the evening news, I highly doubt we actually found any intelligence... the "conspiracy theorist" in me smells deception.

...

This is an orchestrated event people.

My thoughts exactly. IF there was any "intel" found you can bet your bottom dollar the "discovery" of such would NOT be revealed until they had exhausted every miniscule ounce of information from it.

$.02

Text of al-Zarqawi Safe-House Document
Jun 15 8:58 AM US/Eastern
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By The Associated Press
Text of a document discovered in terror leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi's

hideout. The document was provided in English by Iraqi National

Security Adviser Mouwafak al-Rubaie:

___

The situation and conditions of the resistance in Iraq have reached a point that requires a review of the events and of the work being done inside Iraq. Such a study is needed in order to show the best means to accomplish the required goals, especially that the forces of the National Guard have succeeded in forming an enormous shield protecting the American forces and have reduced substantially the losses that were solely suffered by the American forces. This is in addition to the role, played by the Shi'a (the leadership and masses) by supporting the occupation, working to defeat the resistance and by informing on its elements.

Source

This is just the first paragraph of the safe-house document they found with Zarqawi - Thought it would interest all - You should go to the AP and read the entire text -

Just some more info to consider -

Mod Edit: No Quote – Please Review This Link.

Mod Edit: External Source Tags – Please Review This Link.


[edit on 15/6/2006 by Mirthful Me]

Disinformation. Release the idea that intel has been found identifying a significant portion of the 'enemy's' activities. Then watch for anomalous activity. Moving trucks, border activity, etc. Kind of like the old cowboy trick of tossing a pebble into a bush to draw a shot.

[edit on 15-6-2006 by MrPenny]

Well that's fine and dandy if you believe that the only reason there is an insurgency is because the Pentagon's bogey man and the Pentagon's bogey terrorist group were running the whole show. If you consider that the insurgents are ordinary Iraqis, Saddam loyalists, and other extremists who never wanted the US military to invade and occupy in the first place and have probably never heard of al CIAduh, then the death of Emanuelle Goldstein is meaningless, and the insurgency will continue to plague the new Iraqi government after the US withdraws.

Anyway, I thought that Bin Laden named a new al Qaeda general in Iraq. You know, kind of like Vader when he strangles all the failed generals and immediately promotes a new one each time. Maybe the new general will find the good in him and throw Emperor Bin Laden down an exhaust well or something, and we can all turn off the TV and go to bed. Hope you've got plenty of popcorn stocked up, coz 2008 is going to be a real humdinger.

I believe that a new lieutenant has been named but as been under the direct command of Bin-Laden I have not heard anything in that regard.

Now, I am waiting for the official video of Bin-Laden making his timely speech of approval on the selection of his Number two man

Originally posted by subz
This is precisely what I was expecting to come from the death of al-Zarqawi. If you subscribe to the theory that al-Qaeda and al-Zarqawi are nothing more than a US created boogiemen then you will see how this fits into that theory.

Yes, if you subscribe to the "boogiemen theory", which most thinking people reject.

The elimination of al-Zarqawi was necessary since he had outlived his usefullness. He was not the rally point for American public opinion for action in Iraq like Bin Laden was for the Afghanistan invasion. Thus killing him off was a boost to Bush and the War on Terror.

Baloney. How does elimimating a"boogeyman" translate into a "boost"? Keeping him alive would be so much more productive.

But not only was the death of al-Zarqawi used to bolster the flailing US performance in Iraq but now it has provided the United States with a plausible way to rapidly roll-up the al-Qaeda in Iraq operation.

Yeah, he's dead, and we're happy. *SNIP*

If they were to destroy every last al-Qaeda terrorist in Iraq now it would be easily explained as made possible by the "huge treasure" of information captured from al-Zarqawi. Instead of actually being due to the fact that it was all a stage managed affair by some elements of the United States intelligence apparatus.

I'm gonna toss out the words that your kind hates...Where's the proof?

With al-Qaeda in Iraq obliterated the United States can rapidly withdraw forces from a "stable" Iraq and perhaps confront this new "menace" residing in Iran.

Just watch and see how fast we "cut and run". We're there for the long tem.

And now you're sympathizing with Iran???

If I were running a false flag terror boogey man outfit that had outlived its usefulness and I wanted it roll-up fast, this is exactly how I would go about it. They've got bigger fish to fry now.

*SNIP*.

Your own country has many more problems than ours does. Why do you continue to slam us? Have you given up on efforts to change things across the pond? Tend your own garden, young man.

Mod Edit: Civility & Decorum.

[edit on 15/6/2006 by Mirthful Me]

As part of this discussion top Iraqi government folks have a new added bonus. They are going to allow Iraqis who are part of the insugency to basically give up without getting in trouble. Well as long as they attacked Americans

A top al-Maliki adviser told The Washington Post the plan could include pardons for those who had attacked U.S. troops. Adnan Ali al-Kadhimi told the Post "there is a patriotic feeling among the Iraqi youth and the belief that those attacks are legitimate acts of resistance and defending their homeland. These people will be pardoned definitely, I believe."

This seems odd to me. So much data, Al Queda in Iraq broken and now a chance for some sort of amnesty while stating attacks on US troops are okay...

apnews.myway.com...

Aloha! Hello. I must be going! Sounds good, coming from both National Security Adviser Mouwafak al-Rubaie and U.S. General George Casey. (But how many times have we heard that line before.) Administration still needs it both ways: troop reduction to appease Iraqi's who want us out of there and we can still have embassy and bases. Iraq either "stable" or taking over police action. And right before US elections. Anyway, good news, let's see if that mission can be accomplished.

BTW, I want to know the name of the computer that survived the bombing. I had to replace a laptop a cat knocked over in my house.

Wow, looks like Zarqawi got hold of our intelligence documents.

Originally posted by jsobecky
Baloney. How does elimimating a"boogeyman" translate into a "boost"? Keeping him alive would be so much more productive.

Not really. If we recall the patterns of some of the U.S. Government past plans to pose as foreign terrorists, and proven events of colluding with terrorists, we can project some thoughts onto this event. Given the timing, it's not hard to imagine an effort to gain domestic political advantage from this flood of very well timed "good news" and follow-up "treasure trove".

I'm gonna toss out the words that your kind hates...Where's the proof?

Well... like I've been trying to stress... there is historical proof that the U.S. Government has in the past authored plans to have agents masquerade as terrorists (and/or employ actual terrorists), and collude with active terrorists acting against us. If it happened then, it could certainly happen now. However, proof of such things tend to take years to develop... the key is having a long memory.

Originally posted by desert

BTW, I want to know the name of the computer that survived the bombing. I had to replace a laptop a cat knocked over in my house.

According to the article I read, the computer was actually captured at a different hideout several days prior to the bombing of the safehouse. It would appear the Americans did not intend to release info on what they had found until the Iraqi politician kind of forced their hand.

[edit on 15-6-2006 by Astronomer70]

Originally posted by desert
BTW, I want to know the name of the computer that survived the bombing. I had to replace a laptop a cat knocked over in my house.

Believe it or not, there are many more sophisticated data retrieval progams than that which you have at your fingertips.

I hope your cat is OK.

I would like to add my .02 cents to the discussion regarding the "recovered" intelligence:

1. It could easily be assumed that the materials in question were recovered by Iraqi security forces, either exclusively or in coordination with US forces. If true, it is a very small step for a reporter to receive this information from an Iraqi national. Especially since the Iraqis themselves are starved for good news and are looking for a PR coup they can hang their hat on.

2. It is possible that the US intelligence community has purposely framed the discovery of these (alleged) materials is this light for a reason. Perhaps the intend to demoralize the insurgents? Perhaps they want the insurgents to believe we have discovered their whereabouts, tactics, and supply and communication channels? Perhaps, by planting this disinformation with the international press, the US intelligence forces and Iraqi security forces hope that the insurgents will change their current concept of operations because they believe that their operations have been compromised, when in fact they have not. Disinformation 101, folks.

3. Also, if the Allies suddenly claim that they have discovered all sorts of valuable intel regarding communications and movement of enemy forces, it is then just a simple matter to sit back and observe which communications channels and specific message traffic suddenly go silent, because the insurgents believe they have been found out. Then, analysts can observe historical traffic patterns that have been previously recorded, and isolate those communications, channels, persons, etc. which have gone "silent", thereby providing identification of terrorists and their support structure.

4. Or maybe somebody just screwed up and opened their mouth before the policy makers had a chance to take control? It is not inconcievable that in the excitement of the moment, someone forgot their OPSEC responsibilities......

Despite SO"s and Subz"s cynicism and apparent distrust of the U.S. Government and partly in response to their outright speculation about the entire thing being an orchestrated plot of the U.S. Government, I think I should point out that either the orchestrator of such an operation was a terrible political tactician (or completely inept), or the find is probably authentic.

If, as implied, the U.S. has plans & desires to invade Iran, then including that bit about Al Qaeda in Iraq wanting to foster a war between the two is totally counter-productive. Such a planned disclosure would make it harder, not easier, to ever get the U.S. Congress to go along with any such plan.

Originally posted by Pyros
I would like to add my .02 cents to the discussion regarding the "recovered" intelligence:

1. It could easily be assumed that the materials in question were recovered by Iraqi security forces, either exclusively or in coordination with US forces. If true, it is a very small step for a reporter to receive this information from an Iraqi national. Especially since the Iraqis themselves are starved for good news and are looking for a PR coup they can hang their hat on.

2. It is possible that the US intelligence community has purposely framed the discovery of these (alleged) materials is this light for a reason. Perhaps the intend to demoralize the insurgents? Perhaps they want the insurgents to believe we have discovered their whereabouts, tactics, and supply and communication channels? Perhaps, by planting this disinformation with the international press, the US intelligence forces and Iraqi security forces hope that the insurgents will change their current concept of operations because they believe that their operations have been compromised, when in fact they have not. Disinformation 101, folks.

3. Also, if the Allies suddenly claim that they have discovered all sorts of valuable intel regarding communications and movement of enemy forces, it is then just a simple matter to sit back and observe which communications channels and specific message traffic suddenly go silent, because the insurgents believe they have been found out. Then, analysts can observe historical traffic patterns that have been previously recorded, and isolate those communications, channels, persons, etc. which have gone "silent", thereby providing identification of terrorists and their support structure.

4. Or maybe somebody just screwed up and opened their mouth before the policy makers had a chance to take control? It is not inconcievable that in the excitement of the moment, someone forgot their OPSEC responsibilities......

If it works to our advantage, who cares, one way or the other?