Next Gulf-bound system, AL93 -- is this the future Vince?

Forecasting models have recognized the formation of another area of convection, which has now been officially labeled 93L INVEST:



So far, each of the models that has initialized the system AL932005 has forecast a track through the Gulf:




From the NHC tropical discussion hosted this morning at 8:05 EDT:

"UPPER HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH T.D. STAN IS GIVING THE W CARIBBEAN N FLOW AND WITH THE ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE...IS GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION FROM 16N-21N W OF 86W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA..."

Forget Stan and Tammy... this could very well become Vince, the next U.S. landfalling hurricane...

The TAOS model is already predicting a FL landall and over $350 million of damage:




In another ten minutes, we should be getting an update from the NHC which I can almost guarantee will discuss the possibilities of AL93... Stay tuned...






[edit on 5-10-2005 by sdrumrunner]

Interesting report - I'm going to keep an eye on this!

The TAOS model now shows nothing... nada... squat. Quite a change from earlier when it showed a possible hurricane tracking to the central FL gulf coast.

However, at least as of a few minutes ago, while any graphical representation is (for now) absent (as is the foreceasted exposure by GOM oil interests now), the damage estimates were still there. I took a snapshot for posterity's sake, which at the time forecasts TS-force winds making landfall in FL:



Meanwhile, the NHC's latest blurb on AL93 is as follows:

"AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED OVER AND EAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS MORNING. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 84W AND 87W. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME...BUT SURFACE PRESSURES ARE LOW IN THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST."


Four track models still have the system intialized and heading NNE... don't know if the other track models are absent due to the lack of recognition or because they initialize the system at a point far from the other models...

A recent IR photo of AL93:

The radaqr image out of Cancun seems to show -- or at least infer -- circulation:




And as per historical NOAA data, the most likely track of tropical systems entering into the GOM from the south in the month of October:







Both images courtesy of Storm2K...