Iraq insurgency estimates.

If you start out with 20,000 insurgents and kill or capture 21,000 then how many do you have left? Apparently, you still have 20,000 which is not good news.

wpherald

After falling from 18,000 in January and February and down to 16,000 in March and April, the U.S. estimate of the strength of the insurgency quietly crept up again from 15,000-20,000 for June to "No more than 20,000" in July, the IIP reported. Yet the U.S. military has also reported or estimated the number of insurgents detained or killed as 21,000 since Sept. 1, 2004, and 2,000 per month through May, June and July.

If the figures for the past three months are accurate, the insurgents have been losing 10 percent of their real strength per month, or almost one third in only three months, but the continued rise in the number of casualties they are inflicting on U.S. and allied Iraqi forces strongly suggests that, on the contrary, they are maintaining their strength or even extending it: That view, incidentally is also held by several U.S. Army analysts who have spoken on condition of anonymity to UPI.

How can an insurgency be deafeated if it replenishes it's ranks at the same rate at which they are being killed or captured?
Maybe it can never be defeated.

Originally posted by AceOfBase
How can an insurgency be deafeated if it replenishes it's ranks at the same rate at which they are being killed or captured?
Maybe it can never be defeated.

More like most 'insurgents' they kill are not insurgents. Those classic "40 insurgents killed" headlines are probably closer to truth if written as "40 people killed, unknown amount of insurgents possibly amongst those dead."

I've read in the past of innocent deaths being counted as insurgents simply to shift the numbers. If the rate of which they are 'growing' is true, then maybe they are never being depleated at the rate claimed in the first place.

How do they differentiate an insurgent, someone who is aligned to a group with a cause, from someone defending their house or neighborhood from anyone threatening it? Wouldn't we all defend our homes?
Let alone, who is actually certifying the deaths as insurgents when a group of people are killed? Do they carry membership cards? All we know from the US army is 'we don't do body counts'.

I think insurgency numbers are as accurate as to what level of propaganda is needed. If they need a boost of moral, the insurgents die, if they need a boost in war support, the insurgents grow.

Here are charts showing the monthly estimates for the insurgency and the number of daily attacks by the insurgents.





www.brookings.edu...

Both of these numbers are heading in the wrong direction.